Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo is one of the largest banks in the United States, with $2.25 trillion of assets and $1.50 trillion of deposits at September 30, 2026. It has four operating segments: Consumer Banking and Lending, Commercial Banking, Corporate and Investment Banking, and Wealth and Investment Management. It makes most of its money from net interest income, the difference between what it earns on loans and securities and what it pays on deposits and debt. In Q3 2026, net interest income was $12.5 billion of $21.9 billion of revenue.

The rest comes from fees for investment advice, investment banking, trading, cards, deposits and mortgages. For years a Federal Reserve limit stopped Wells Fargo from growing its balance sheet. Now that the limit is gone, the bank grows again. Average loans grew 11% in the year to Q3 2026.

The market doubts that Wells Fargo can turn its new balance sheet growth into higher returns while interest rates rise. Loans and deposits grew 11% in the year to Q3 2026, but the net interest margin fell to 2.43% from 2.61% a year earlier, because new deposits cost more and part of the growth is in lower-margin Markets assets. Higher rates in Q3 2026 also doubled the accumulated other comprehensive loss, from $8.3 billion at June 30 to $16.5 billion at September 30. This cut the CET1 ratio by 38 basis points to 10.0% and reduced the capital that is free for buybacks, which fell to $2.5 billion in Q3 from $3.0 billion in Q2.

Fee income was also weaker, down 9% from Q2 2026, with lower venture capital and trading results. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Net interest income must reach about $13 billion in Q4 2026, as guided, and keep growing in 2027. Return on tangible common equity must stay at or above the 16.2% of the first nine months of 2026, with expenses near the $55.7 billion guided for 2026.

The CET1 ratio must stay near 10% while buybacks continue, and credit losses must stay low, near the 0.38% net charge-off ratio of Q3 2026. The next check is the Q4 2026 report in mid-January 2027, with the 2027 outlook. If these hold, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. If rates rise further, bond losses can keep limiting buybacks.

1. Jan 13, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlookNet interest income near $13 billion in Q4 2026, a 2027 outlook with higher net interest income and continued buybacks pass; lower net interest income or smaller buybacks fail.
2. Jun 2027 · est.Pending

   Federal Reserve stress test resultsA stress capital buffer that lets the bank keep buybacks near current levels passes; a higher buffer that cuts buybacks fails.
3. 2027 · est.Pending

   Returns after balance sheet growthReturn on tangible common equity at or above 16% with a stable net interest margin passes; a margin that keeps falling or returns below 15% fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Wells Fargo funds itself mostly with client deposits. At September 30, 2026, total assets were $2,253.3 billion and total deposits were $1,502.7 billion, of which $365.7 billion paid no interest. Read more

• Higher interest rates lower the value of the bank's securities and its capital. The accumulated other comprehensive loss doubled to $16.5 billion in Q3 2026, and this cut the CET1 ratio by 38 basis points to 10.0%. More rate increases can slow buybacks.
• Balance sheet growth can lower margins and raise risk. The net interest margin fell to 2.43% in Q3 2026 from 2.61% a year earlier, as deposit costs rose and lower-margin Markets assets grew. Fast loan growth after the asset cap can bring higher credit losses in a downturn.
• Credit losses can rise. The CEO named higher interest rates, higher oil prices and inflation as risks to the economy on October 13, 2026. Commercial net charge-offs rose to 0.18% of loans in Q3 2026 from 0.10% in Q2.
• Fee income depends on markets. Trading gains and venture capital results fell in Q3 2026, and fee income dropped 9% from Q2. A weak market can lower these revenues again.

• October 13, 2026Wells Fargo reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $5.95 billion, and diluted EPS was $1.87, up 13%. Revenue was $21.9 billion, down 3% from Q2 2026, as fee income fell 9%. The net interest margin was 2.43%. The accumulated other comprehensive loss rose to $16.5 billion from $8.3 billion because of higher rates, and the CET1 ratio fell to 10.0% from 10.3%. Wells Fargo bought back $2.5 billion of stock and kept its 2026 guidance of about $50 billion of net interest income and about $55.7 billion of expenses.
• September 24, 2026Wells Fargo issued $6.0 billion of senior fixed-to-floating rate notes: $2.5 billion due 2030 and $3.5 billion due 2037.
• September 23, 2026Wells Fargo appointed Scott Powell, its Chief Operating Officer, as Chief Risk Officer from January 15, 2027. He will then no longer be Chief Operating Officer.