Intercontinental Exchange

Intercontinental Exchange runs financial exchanges, clearing houses, data services, and mortgage software. It reports three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. It owns the New York Stock Exchange and futures exchanges for energy, interest rates, and farm and metal commodities, such as the Brent oil contract.

It operates six clearing houses. ICE Mortgage Technology sells software that lenders use to make home loans and that servicers use to manage them. ICE makes money from trading and clearing fees, listing fees, market data subscriptions, and software fees.

The market still prices ICE partly as a mortgage company. The 2023 Black Knight purchase made mortgage technology about one fifth of net revenue, and that revenue moves with US home-loan volume. Mortgage rates rose again from July 2026. The Freddie Mac 30-year rate went from 6.43% on July 2 to 7.40% on October 8, 2026, and the Federal Reserve raised its target rate in September.

Higher rates keep refinance volume low and delay the mortgage recovery that the Black Knight purchase depends on. The pending MarketAxess purchase adds a second question. ICE will pay about $6.0 billion in cash with new debt while it still integrates Black Knight, and investors ask whether it can integrate the deal well and reduce the debt on plan. For the gap to close, three things must be true.

Exchange and data revenue must keep growing; these two segments gave about 80% of net revenue in the first half of 2026, and recurring revenue grew 8% in the second quarter. Mortgage technology revenue must keep growing with higher rates, as it did in 2024 and 2025. The MarketAxess deal must close in the first half of 2027, and gross leverage must fall from about 3.4 times to 3.0 times or less within 18 to 24 months after closing. The first evidence comes on October 29, 2026, with the third quarter report, the MarketAxess shareholder vote and the end of the US antitrust waiting period.

If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If mortgage rates stay high for longer or the deal has antitrust delays, the gap can stay into 2028.

1. Oct 29, 2026Pending

   MarketAxess shareholder vote and end of US antitrust reviewShareholder approval and no second request or suit from the Department of Justice pass; a failed vote or a longer antitrust review that delays closing fails.
2. Oct 29, 2026Pending

   Q3 2026 earnings: mortgage technology and recurring revenueMortgage technology revenue that still grows from a year earlier with higher mortgage rates, and recurring revenue growth near the 8% of Q2, pass; a fall in mortgage technology revenue from a year earlier fails.
3. Q2 2027 · est.Pending

   MarketAxess deal closing and first leverage reportClosing in the first half of 2027 after the antitrust and foreign regulatory approvals, with gross leverage near 3.4 times and buybacks still at $400 million a quarter, passes; a delay past mid-2027 or higher leverage than planned fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Intercontinental Exchange funds itself with unsecured debt of the parent company and with cash from its exchanges, data and mortgage software. At June 30, 2026, the debt was $18.6 billion of senior notes and $1.2 billion of commercial paper. Read more

• Mortgage technology revenue depends on US mortgage volume, which moves with interest rates that ICE does not control. The Freddie Mac 30-year rate rose from 6.43% in July 2026 to 7.40% in October 2026, which keeps refinance volume low. If rates stay high, the growth of this segment can slow or stop.
• ICE is still integrating Black Knight, bought in 2023, while it works to close the purchase of MarketAxess for about $6.0 billion in cash. ICE expects the deal to close in the first half of 2027, after the shareholder vote and the antitrust and other regulatory approvals. The deal adds about $6 billion of debt, and two integrations at the same time raise execution risk.
• Exchange trading revenue depends on trading volume and market volatility, which change from quarter to quarter. A calm market with lower volume could reduce this revenue.

• October 5, 2026ICE reported that its average daily trading volume in Q3 2026 was 31% higher than a year earlier. In September, volume was 51% higher, and open interest in its interest rate futures reached a record.
• October 5, 2026ICE's October Mortgage Monitor reported that demand for adjustable-rate mortgages reached a nearly four-year high because mortgage rates rose. ICE's 30-year rate index was 7.2% on September 24, 2026.
• September 29, 2026ICE and MarketAxess withdrew their US antitrust filings on September 25 and filed them again on September 29. This gives the Department of Justice more time. The waiting period now ends on October 29, 2026.