Picks is a personal list of stocks that trade below their estimated worth, each with research and a dated history of every change: information, not advice.
48 stocks · Updated
Latest note · · Updated
The biggest discounts are the slowest to close
The widest discounts on the list mostly belong to companies whose gap will close slowly, or probably never. Analysts are far less hopeful than Morningstar about the consumer staples near the top of the list. AI links a large part of the list, and the four US AI spenders all report in the last week of October.
Higher is cheaper vs. fair value; further right is more loved by analysts. Tap or hover a bubble for details.
How to read this chart
Discount = 1 minus price divided by fair value. A stock below the 0% line has a price above its fair value. The LSEG axis is stretched where ratings are close together and squeezed where they are far apart, so its gridlines are not evenly spaced. A bright, thick-ringed bubble links to a full write-up — tap or click it to select it, then tap or click it again (or its "Open" link) to open the write-up. A faded, thin-ringed bubble does not link anywhere yet. Under More filters, tap or click a chip to show or hide that group (moat, uncertainty, or whether a write-up exists). Use the As of menu to see the map on an earlier date. A pick with no Morningstar rating appears in a separate strip below the chart, positioned by its LSEG rating only. A pick with no LSEG rating cannot be placed on the map, so it is listed under the chart instead. A dimmed bubble is a company whose gap to fair value will probably not close (a structural discount), so its height overstates the opportunity; the switch above the map hides these companies on the map and in the table. A starred or owned pick gets a gold ring; a passed pick fades until it's updated again.
WideMediumLSEG 1.77Structural gap: US-China tension and a weak Chinese consumer keep a country discount on Yum China that its own results cannot remove.
Earnings Nov 2 (est.) · Updated
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
47.2%
below fair value
$109.26 → fair value $207.00
WideHighLSEG 1.83Structural gap: The VIE structure and US-China tension keep a discount on Alibaba whatever its cloud business does.
Earnings Nov 20 (est.) · Updated
CLX
The Clorox Company
45.8%
below fair value
$83.52 → fair value $154.00
WideMediumLSEG 3.10
Earnings Nov 3 (est.) · Updated
AVGO
Broadcom
42.2%
below fair value
$375.81 → fair value $650.00
WideHighLSEG 1.77
Earnings Dec 10 (est.) · Updated
APP
AppLovin
40.7%
below fair value
$278.78 → fair value $470.00
NarrowVery HighLSEG 1.94
Earnings Nov 5 (est.) · Updated
RELX
RELX
40.3%
below fair value
$34.03 → fair value $57.00
WideMediumLSEG 1.67
Earnings Oct 22 · Updated
EXPGY
Experian
39.9%
below fair value
$33.08 → fair value $55.00
WideMediumLSEG 1.67
Earnings Nov 18 · Updated
PCG
PG&E
39.0%
below fair value
$12.50 → fair value $20.50
NoneMediumLSEG 2.39Structural gap: California has no cap on wildfire liability, lawmakers failed again to pass reform, and one bad fire can erase years of profit.
Earnings Oct 22 · Updated
HONA
Honeywell Aerospace
38.5%
below fair value
$157.39 → fair value $256.00
WideMediumLSEG 2.56
Earnings Oct 28 · Updated
OTIS
Otis Worldwide
36.7%
below fair value
$66.45 → fair value $105.00
WideLowLSEG 2.44
Earnings Nov 4 (est.) · Updated
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions
36.5%
below fair value
$158.66 → fair value $250.00
WideMediumLSEG 2.30
Earnings Nov 4 (est.) · Updated
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
35.1%
below fair value
$76.62 → fair value $118.00
NarrowHighLSEG 1.74
Earnings Nov 4 (est.) · Updated
INTU
Intuit
32.6%
below fair value
$289.81 → fair value $430.00
NarrowHighLSEG 2.36
Earnings Nov 25 (est.) · Updated
POOL
Pool Corporation
31.1%
below fair value
$158.24 → fair value $229.58
NarrowHighLSEG 2.56
Earnings Oct 22 (est.) · Updated
SAP
SAP
30.3%
below fair value
$210.46 → fair value $302.00
WideMediumLSEG 2.04
Earnings Oct 21 · Updated
HSY
The Hershey Company
30.1%
below fair value
$160.80 → fair value $230.00
WideLowLSEG 2.67
Earnings Oct 30 (est.) · Updated
RBGLY
Reckitt Benckiser
28.5%
below fair value
$13.30 → fair value $18.60
WideMediumLSEG 2.33
Earnings Oct 27 · Updated
PEP
PepsiCo
25.6%
below fair value
$125.71 → fair value $169.00
WideLowLSEG 2.65
Earnings Oct 8 · Updated
SPGI
S&P Global
24.5%
below fair value
$396.13 → fair value $525.00
WideMediumLSEG 1.86
Earnings Oct 27 · Updated
CPRT
Copart
23.4%
below fair value
$26.82 → fair value $35.00
WideMediumLSEG 2.21
Earnings Dec 10 (est.) · Updated
NVDA
Nvidia
22.8%
below fair value
$239.24 → fair value $310.00
WideVery HighLSEG 1.71
Earnings Nov 17 (est.) · Updated
SCHW
Charles Schwab
21.9%
below fair value
$96.80 → fair value $124.00
WideMediumLSEG 1.96
Earnings Oct 15 · Updated
AZO
AutoZone
21.7%
below fair value
$2,898.57 → fair value $3,700.00
WideMediumLSEG 1.89
Earnings Dec 22 (est.) · Updated
UNH
UnitedHealth Group
20.8%
below fair value
$376.32 → fair value $475.00
NarrowHighLSEG 1.97
Earnings Oct 13 · Updated
GOOGL
Alphabet
19.7%
below fair value
$347.68 → fair value $433.00
WideMediumLSEG 1.80
Earnings Oct 27 (est.) · Updated
NOW
ServiceNow
16.4%
below fair value
$137.97 → fair value $165.00
NarrowHighLSEG 1.82
Earnings Oct 28 (est.) · Updated
BTI
British American Tobacco
15.9%
below fair value
$53.01 → fair value $63.00
WideMediumLSEG 1.50Structural gap: Many investors do not own tobacco, and regulators keep adding rules, so the market will probably always pay less for BAT's cash flow.
Earnings Feb 11 (est.) · Updated
CSU
Constellation Software
15.7%
below fair value
CA$2,950.64 → fair value CA$3,500.00
NarrowHighLSEG 2.00
Earnings Nov 11 (est.) · Updated
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
15.7%
below fair value
$153.49 → fair value $182.00
WideLowLSEG 1.81
Earnings Oct 29 · Updated
AMZN
Amazon
14.6%
below fair value
$256.29 → fair value $300.00
WideMediumLSEG 1.80
Earnings Oct 29 (est.) · Updated
MCD
McDonald's
13.9%
below fair value
$232.45 → fair value $270.00
WideLowLSEG 2.24
Earnings Nov 4 (est.) · Updated
META
Meta Platforms
13.1%
below fair value
$738.88 → fair value $850.00
WideHighLSEG 1.83
Earnings Oct 29 (est.) · Updated
MSFT
Microsoft
11.8%
below fair value
$529.30 → fair value $600.00
WideMediumLSEG 1.72
Earnings Oct 27 (est.) · Updated
NVO
Novo Nordisk
10.6%
below fair value
$37.53 → fair value $42.00
WideHighLSEG 2.85
Earnings Nov 4 · Updated
YUM
Yum! Brands
9.8%
below fair value
$139.84 → fair value $155.00
WideLowLSEG 2.41
Earnings Oct 30 (est.) · Updated
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
9.7%
below fair value
$482.30 → fair value $534.00
WideMediumLSEG 1.65Structural gap: Strong results can close the execution part, but the market will probably keep a discount for Taiwan-China risk that TSMC cannot control.
Earnings Oct 15 · Updated
VNOM
Viper Energy
7.2%
below fair value
$41.59 → fair value $44.83
NarrowMediumLSEG 1.81
Earnings Nov 2 · Updated
WM
Waste Management
5.5%
below fair value
$207.88 → fair value $220.00
WideMediumLSEG 2.00
Earnings Oct 27 · Updated
MRVL
Marvell Technology
4.3%
below fair value
$287.01 → fair value $300.00
NarrowHighLSEG 1.87
Earnings Nov 27 (est.) · Updated
PG
Procter & Gamble
4.3%
below fair value
$148.41 → fair value $155.00
WideLowLSEG 2.54
Earnings Oct 22 · Updated
SNPS
Synopsys
2.9%
below fair value
$505.17 → fair value $520.00
WideHighLSEG 1.85
Earnings Nov 26 (est.) · Updated
CEG
Constellation Energy
0.1%
below fair value
$300.40 → fair value $300.63
NarrowMediumLSEG 1.96
Earnings Nov 9 (est.) · Updated
QCOM
Qualcomm
-6.5%
above fair value
$181.03 → fair value $170.00
NarrowHighLSEG 2.63
Earnings Nov 11 (est.) · Updated
COST
Costco Wholesale
-26.4%
above fair value
$935.68 → fair value $740.00
WideMediumLSEG 2.10Structural gap: Investors have paid a premium for Costco's predictable membership profit for many years, and nothing in the research shows that this will stop.
Earnings Dec 24 (est.) · Updated
BN
Brookfield Corporation
Not rated
$37.29
LSEG 2.17Structural gap: The multi-layer holding structure stays after the merger, so part of the gap to plan value will probably never close.
Earnings Nov 13 (est.) · Updated
MRX
Marex Group
Not rated
$74.24
LSEG 2.00
Earnings Nov 12 (est.) · Updated
SUGR
Sucro Limited
Not rated
CA$10.01
LSEG No ratingStructural gap: The founder controls the company, the stock trades very little, and minority holders cannot block a bid, so the price will probably stay below reported value.
Earnings Nov 13 (est.) · Updated
Select a column heading to sort. A colored ticker links to a full write-up.
Structural gap: Strong results can close the execution part, but the market will probably keep a discount for Taiwan-China risk that TSMC cannot control.
Structural gap: Investors have paid a premium for Costco's predictable membership profit for many years, and nothing in the research shows that this will stop.
Structural gap: The founder controls the company, the stock trades very little, and minority holders cannot block a bid, so the price will probably stay below reported value.
Price fell from $135.62 to $134.01; discount widened from 17.8% to 18.8%; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $225.07 to $228.38; discount narrowed from 27.4% to 26.3%; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $343.92 to $344.08; discount narrowed from 20.6% to 20.5%; LSEG rating moved from 1.82 to 1.80; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten.
Price rose from CA$2872.98 to CA$2894.73; discount narrowed from 17.9% to 17.3%; next earnings date moved to 2026-11-11; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten.
Price fell from $249.67 to $249.15; discount widened from 16.8% to 16.9%; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $263.27 to $254.02; discount widened from 12.4% to 15.5%; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $261.94 to $264.21; discount narrowed from 12.7% to 11.9%; next earnings date moved to 2026-11-27; next earnings date is now an estimate; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $310.75 to $290.43; discount widened from 33.9% to 38.2%; next earnings date moved to 2026-11-05; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $275.79 to $275.71; next earnings date moved to 2026-11-25; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten.
Price fell from $109.74 to $107.54; discount widened from 47.0% to 48.0%; next earnings date moved to 2026-11-20; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $403.30 to $394.47; discount widened from 23.2% to 24.9%; next earnings date moved to 2026-10-27; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $55.63 to $54.40; discount widened from 11.7% to 13.7%; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $78.23 to $79.43; discount narrowed from 33.7% to 32.7%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $33.52 to $33.18; discount widened from 41.2% to 41.8%; next earnings date moved to 2026-10-22; next earnings date is now confirmed; the investment thesis was rewritten.
Price fell from $158.78 to $154.97; discount widened from 38.0% to 39.5%; next earnings date moved to 2026-10-28; next earnings date is now confirmed; the investment thesis was rewritten.
Price fell from $81.12 to $78.23; discount widened from 31.3% to 33.7%; the company overview was rewritten; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $36.87 to $36.49; the company overview was rewritten; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $138.63 to $137.73; discount widened from 10.6% to 11.1%; next earnings date moved to 2026-10-30; next earnings date is now an estimate; the company overview was rewritten; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $224.87 to $225.07; discount narrowed from 27.5% to 27.4%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $340.75 to $343.92; discount narrowed from 21.3% to 20.6%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $446.92 to $450.61; discount narrowed from 16.3% to 15.6%; next earnings date moved to 2026-10-15; next earnings date is now confirmed; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $754.66 to $751.66; discount widened from 11.2% to 11.6%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $41.67 to $40.93; discount widened from 7.0% to 8.7%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $250.21 to $249.67; discount widened from 16.6% to 16.8%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $262.64 to $263.27; discount narrowed from 12.6% to 12.4%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $370.95 to $376.59; discount narrowed from 21.9% to 20.7%; next earnings date moved to 2026-10-13; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $100.17 to $99.03; discount widened from 19.2% to 20.1%; next earnings date moved to 2026-10-15; next earnings date is now confirmed; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $309.85 to $310.75; discount narrowed from 34.1% to 33.9%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $156.42 to $154.31; discount widened from 14.1% to 15.2%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $288.45 to $275.79; discount widened from 32.9% to 35.9%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $12.53 to $12.34; discount widened from 38.9% to 39.8%; next earnings date moved to 2026-10-22; next earnings date is now confirmed; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $147.36 to $146.23; discount widened from 4.9% to 5.7%; next earnings date moved to 2026-10-22; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $111.05 to $109.74; discount widened from 46.4% to 47.0%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $904.71 to $922.77; discount narrowed from -22.3% to -24.7%; next earnings date moved to 2026-12-24; next earnings date is now an estimate; the investment thesis was rewritten; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $163.56 to $158.78; discount widened from 36.1% to 38.0%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $137.34 to $138.63; discount narrowed from 11.4% to 10.6%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price rose from $664.48 to $754.66; discount narrowed from 21.8% to 11.2%; the company overview was rewritten; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Price fell from $2953.00 to $2815.30; discount widened from 20.2% to 23.9%; next earnings date moved to 2026-12-22; next earnings date is now an estimate.
Price rose from $208.00 to $213.66; discount narrowed from 30.7% to 28.8%; the investment thesis was rewritten; the listed risks were updated; recent events were updated.
Morningstar sets the fair value, moat, and uncertainty ratings. I do not set these ratings. Read the disclaimer for more information.
Some stocks aren't covered by Morningstar yet. Those show only their price and LSEG rating.
Fair value & discountMorningstar
Morningstar analysts build a cash flow model for each company. This model gives an estimate of the true value of the company. The estimate does not depend on the current stock price. Discount = 1 minus price divided by fair value. A positive discount means the price is below the fair value. A negative discount means the price is above the fair value.
Economic moatMorningstar
This rating shows how long a company can keep its advantage over other companies. A Wide moat means the advantage can last about 20 years or more. A Narrow moat means the advantage can last about 10 years or more. A None moat means the company has no lasting advantage. Morningstar looks at five things to set this rating: network effects, intangible assets, cost advantages, switching costs, and efficient scale.
Fair-value uncertaintyMorningstar
This rating shows how much the fair value estimate can change. The scale goes from Low to Very High. A company with unpredictable cash flow gets a higher uncertainty rating. Cyclical revenue, high debt, and revenue from few customers can cause this. A large discount on a High or Very High uncertainty stock is a weak signal, because the fair value behind it is a rougher guess. A large discount on a Low uncertainty stock is a stronger signal.
Stock market analysts each give a recommendation for a stock. LSEG averages these recommendations on a scale from 1 to 5. A rating of 1 means Strong Buy. A rating of 5 means Strong Sell. A lower number means more analysts recommend the stock. The chart shows this axis in reverse, so the more popular stocks sit on the right.
Next earningsCompany filings & press releases
The date of each company's next scheduled quarterly earnings report. When the company has not yet announced a specific date, this is an estimate: the last reported earnings date plus 3 months. Estimated dates are marked '(est.)' in the table and 'estimated' on a stock's page.