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BACBanks

Bank of America

Wide moatMedium uncertainty

Updated

Price
$51.76
Fair value
fair value $62.00
Discount
16.5% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 1.92 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 14 · · estimated

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In short

Thesis
Low-yield bonds bought when rates were low hold back Bank of America's returns, and growing net interest income with ROTCE near its target in 2027 can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. Quarterly net interest income and ROTCE through 2027 show whether old low-yield bonds roll off and returns reach the bank's target.
Next test
(estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook

About

Bank of America is the second largest US bank by assets, with $3.4 trillion of assets and $2.04 trillion of deposits at September 30, 2026. It reports four segments. Consumer Banking takes deposits, gives credit cards and loans, and serves about 39 million consumer checking accounts. Global Wealth and Investment Management, with Merrill and the Private Bank, manages $5.1 trillion of client balances.

Global Banking lends to companies and earns investment banking fees, and Global Markets trades bonds, currencies, and stocks for clients. The bank earns most of its money from net interest income, the difference between the interest it earns on loans and securities and the interest it pays on deposits, which was $16.4 billion in Q3 2026. It also earns fees from asset management, cards, investment banking, and trading.

Thesis

The market prices Bank of America at a discount because a large part of its assets are low-yield bonds that it bought when rates were very low, and its returns are still below its own target. At September 30, 2026, it held $496 billion of held-to-maturity securities with an unrealized loss of $104 billion, up from $82 billion at June 30, as rates rose. These bonds earn less than new loans or bonds, so they limit net interest income until they mature. Return on tangible common equity was 12.6% in Q3 2026, or 14.9% without a $1.2 billion anti-money-laundering penalty, below the 16% to 18% medium-term target that the bank set in November 2025.

In Q3, adjusted EPS of $1.08 was below the expected $1.10, and the shares fell more than 3% before the market opened. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Net interest income must keep growing as old bonds mature and the money goes into higher-yield assets; it grew 8% from a year earlier in Q3 2026. ROTCE must move into the 16% to 18% range in 2027.

The consent orders of October 13, 2026, must not bring more penalties or limits on growth. The Q4 2026 report, expected in mid-January 2027, with the outlook for 2027, is the next check. If net interest income keeps growing and returns rise, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If rates fall quickly or loan losses rise, it can take longer.

Checkpoints

  1. Jan 14, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlookNet interest income that grows at least 5% from a year earlier and an outlook for more growth in 2027 pass; flat net interest income or a weaker outlook fails.
  2. Q2 2027 · est.Pending
    2027 stress test and capital returnA stress capital buffer that lets the bank keep its CET1 ratio near 10.5% and continue buybacks passes; a higher buffer that forces lower buybacks fails.
  3. 2027 · est.Pending
    Returns reach the 16% to 18% ROTCE targetQuarterly ROTCE of 16% or more in 2027 passes; ROTCE that stays near 15% or below fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$249.6B
Debt
$380.9B
Net debt
$131.3B

Cash against debt

Cash$249.6B
Debt$380.9B

debt covered by cashnet debt $131.3B

Credit ratings

  • Moody's A1 · stable
  • S&P A- · stable
  • Fitch AA- · stable

Bank of America funds itself mostly with $2.04 trillion of customer deposits, which are not part of debt here. The figures are preliminary amounts from the Q3 2026 supplemental information.

Risks

  • Bank of America holds $496 billion of held-to-maturity securities with an unrealized loss of $104 billion at September 30, 2026. Higher long-term rates increase this loss. The loss does not reduce regulatory capital now, but it would become real if the bank had to sell the bonds, for example after a large outflow of deposits.
  • Net interest income depends on interest rates and deposit costs. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates quickly or deposits move to higher-rate products, net interest income can grow more slowly than the bank expects.
  • The consent orders of October 13, 2026, require the bank to improve its anti-money-laundering and sanctions programs. A failure to meet them can bring more penalties or limits on growth.
  • A weaker economy can raise loan losses. Net charge-offs were $1.3 billion in Q3 2026. Credit card loans of $106 billion and loans to companies are the main sources of losses in a downturn.
  • Investment banking fees fell 11% and sales and trading revenue fell 5% in Q3 2026. These revenues change with markets and can fall further.

Recent events

  • October 14, 2026Bank of America reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $30.0 billion, up 3%, and net interest income was $16.4 billion, up 8%. Net income was $6.9 billion, or $0.91 per share, after a $1.2 billion regulatory penalty. Without the penalty, EPS was $1.08. The CET1 ratio was 10.9%, and the bank returned $8.3 billion to shareholders, with $6.0 billion of buybacks. Shares fell more than 3% before the market opened.
  • October 13, 2026The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and FinCEN announced that Bank of America consented to orders about parts of its Bank Secrecy Act, anti-money-laundering, and sanctions compliance programs. The bank recorded $1.2 billion of expense in Q3 2026 for the civil money penalties, which is not tax deductible.
  • July 24, 2026Bank of America raised its quarterly dividend by 14% to $0.32 per share, from $0.28.
Show 2 older events
  • July 14, 2026Bank of America reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $9.1 billion, and EPS was $1.21, up 34% from a year earlier. Revenue was $31.6 billion, up 15%, and net interest income was $16.0 billion, up 9%.
  • May 27, 2026Bank of America launched BofA Rewards, which replaced its Preferred Rewards program. By September 30, 2026, 17.6 million clients were enrolled.

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