- Price
- CA$9.75 → CA$10.01(+2.7%)
- Fair value
- — → CA$10.20
- Fair value source
- — → AI estimate
- Uncertainty
- — → Very High
- Uncertainty source
- — → AI estimate
- Moat
- — → None
- Moat source
- — → AI estimate
- Thesis
- The market does not trustprices Sucro's reported profit between two values. On cash earnings, the company is worth less than its price, because interest uses almost all of its adjusted EBITDA. Most of theits reported profit comes fromis unrealized gains on forward sugar contracts and inventory, and management estimates many of these values. On a cash basisA takeover bid by Beta San Miguel would value the company higher, because the minimum bid price is linked to the audited 2026 earnings only just cover interest. The price stays below the AI estimate because nobody knows if Beta San Miguel will bid, and the company depends on short-term bank lines that are mostly uncommitted. New US trade measures against Canadian sugar products also add doubt about the cross-border model. For the stockgap to riseclose, theone of two things must happen. The new Hamilton and University Park refineries must increase cash margins. Adjusted, so that adjusted EBITDA without one-off items must riserises to about US$8 million a quarter, and debt must startstarts to fall. A second path is a bid byOr Beta San Miguel. It can must make a bid, which it can do from May 20271, at a minimum price that is linked to the 2026 earnings2027. The strategic review can also add value through asset sales or share buybacks. The evidence arrives with the Q3 2026 results in about November 2026, the audited 2026 results in about April 2027, and the start of the bid window on May 1, 2027. If refinery margins do not recover and no bid comes, the price will probably stay low or fall, because the high debt leaves little value for shareholders.
- Valuation
- The fair value, the moat and the uncertainty on this page for Sucro are an AI estimate from October 8, 2026. They are not an analyst's values. An AI research agent calculated them from Sucro's filings. The fair value is the average of two cases, and each case has a weight of 50%. These weights are an assumption. Case 1 has no takeover bid. It values the business at 8 times adjusted EBITDA, and the multiple of 8 is an assumption. It uses the 2025 adjusted EBITDA of US$31.0 million, from before the new refineries added volume. From this value it takes away US$132.4 million of adjusted net debt at June 30, 2026, US$18.3 million of leases and US$0.5 million due to related parties. Adjusted net debt is loans less cash and less the collateral value of inventory and receivables, as Sucro calculates it. Case 1 gives about US$4.01 per share on 24.07 million shares, with each proportionate voting share counted as 100 shares. Case 2 is a bid by Beta San Miguel in 2027 at the minimum price in its agreement. This price is 9 times the diluted comprehensive income per share in the audited 2026 results. The estimate doubles the first-half 2026 figure of US$0.575 per share (US$13.9 million on 24.2 million diluted shares) to get US$1.15 for the full year. Case 2 gives about US$10.36 per share. The average of the two cases is US$7.19 per share, or about CA$10.20 at 1.42 Canadian dollars per US dollar. The two cases are far apart, so the uncertainty is Very High. The moat rating is None. The Q2 2026 MD&A of August 13, 2026 says that Sucro earns a margin from differences in the time, the place and the quality of sugar. Sugar is a commodity, and other refiners sell the same product in Canada and the United States. The refining margin fell by US$28.37 to US$87.28 per tonne in Q2 2026, because of customs duties, tariffs and freight costs. Interest of US$23.3 million in the 12 months to June 30, 2026 used almost all of the US$24.0 million of adjusted EBITDA, so returns are not above the cost of capital. Canadian duties on imported refined sugar and Caribbean trade rules help Sucro. But governments set them, and Canada started a review of its duties in July 2026, so they are not a durable advantage.
As of 2026-10-08.