Sucro Limited

Sucro buys raw and refined cane sugar, mostly from Latin America. It refines and sells sugar to food and beverage makers in Canada, the United States, Mexico and the Caribbean. It owns cane sugar refineries in Hamilton, Ontario, in Lackawanna, New York, and in University Park, Illinois. The new Hamilton refinery started at the end of 2025 and opened officially in May 2026.

University Park made its first sugar in about March 2026. Sucro owns 50% of a refinery project in Belize with Santander Sugar, and a small indirect share of a planned refinery in Guyana. It reports in US dollars. Its shares trade in Canadian dollars on the TSX Venture Exchange, and in the US on the OTCQB as SUGRF.

The founder, Jonathan Taylor, controls about half of the votes and of the shares. The Mexican refiner Beta San Miguel owns about 16%. If it bids for the company in 2027 or 2028, the founder must sell it enough shares to give it control.

The market prices Sucro between two values. On cash earnings, the company is worth less than its price, because interest uses almost all of its adjusted EBITDA. Most of its reported profit is unrealized gains on sugar contracts and inventory, and management estimates many of these values. A takeover bid by Beta San Miguel would value the company higher, because the minimum bid price is linked to the audited 2026 earnings.

The price stays below the AI estimate because nobody knows if Beta San Miguel will bid, and the company depends on short-term bank lines that are mostly uncommitted. New US trade measures against Canadian sugar products also add doubt about the cross-border model. For the gap to close, one of two things must happen. The new Hamilton and University Park refineries must increase cash margins, so that adjusted EBITDA without one-off items rises to about US$8 million a quarter and debt starts to fall.

Or Beta San Miguel must make a bid, which it can do from May 1, 2027. The strategic review can also add value through asset sales or share buybacks. The evidence arrives with the Q3 2026 results in about November 2026, the audited 2026 results in about April 2027, and the start of the bid window on May 1, 2027. If refinery margins do not recover and no bid comes, the price will probably stay low or fall, because the high debt leaves little value for shareholders.

The fair value, the moat and the uncertainty on this page for Sucro are an AI estimate from October 8, 2026, with its inputs checked again on October 12, 2026. They are not an analyst's values. Read more

1. Nov 19, 2026 · est.Pending

   Q3 2026 results: underlying adjusted EBITDAAdjusted EBITDA near US$8 million without one-off items passes; a figure near US$3 million to US$5 million, as in Q2, fails.
2. Nov 27, 2026Pending

   Canada CBSA decision on refined sugar duty expiry reviewA CBSA finding that dumping is likely to continue, which keeps the review going, passes; a decision to end the review fails.
3. Dec 2026 · est.Pending

   Refinancing of US$17.5 million term debt due within 12 monthsSucro refinances this debt by year-end 2026 on similar terms passes; a delay or a forced asset sale to repay it fails.
4. Apr 2027 · est.Pending

   Audited 2026 results set Beta San Miguel's minimum bid priceAudited results that keep the reported gains and show debt starting to fall pass; a write-down of contract or inventory values fails.
5. May 1, 2027Pending

   Beta San Miguel takeover bid window opensA bid by Beta San Miguel at or above the formula floor passes; no bid in the 2027 window fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Sucro borrows mostly against its sugar inventory and receivables, so its debt rises and falls with the amount of sugar it holds. Interest used almost all of the adjusted EBITDA in the 12 months to June 30, 2026, and the company's own adjusted leverage ratio rose to 5.5 times. Read more

• Most of the equity is unrealized gains on sugar contracts and inventory. Management estimates many of these values. A write-down would reduce equity and borrowing capacity.
• Debt is high. Cash earnings only just cover interest. Most bank lines are uncommitted and depend on the value of the collateral.
• US trade measures can hurt the business. These include the molasses import ban, the 50% duties on certain Canadian goods since August 2026 and pressure from the US sugar industry.
• The new refineries can ramp up more slowly than planned. Freight costs from the University Park ramp-up cut the Q2 2026 refining margin, and the Belize refinery had not started by mid-August 2026.
• The founder controls the company. Under a lock-up agreement, he must sell enough shares to Beta San Miguel to give it control if it bids at or above a formula price. Minority holders cannot block this change of control. A later buyout of their shares needs a vote of the minority holders.
• The stock trades only a few thousand shares a day. It can be hard to sell a position quickly.
• Canada can end its duties on cheap imported refined sugar after the current review. This would put pressure on margins in Canada.

• September 29, 2026A US ban on imports of Canadian molasses took effect. The US President signed it on September 8 under Section 338 of the Tariff Act. Sucro's chair told CBC that Sucro stopped shipping molasses to the US after April 2026.
• September 9, 2026Beta San Miguel bought 10,000 Sucro shares in the market at CA$9.63. It also bought 4,500 shares at CA$9.04 on September 4.
• August 22, 2026US duties of 50% on certain Canadian goods took effect under Section 338 of the Tariff Act. Sucro has not said if they apply to its sugar.