- Company name
- Sucro Limited
- Sector
- Sugar refining & trading
- About
- Sucro buys raw and refined cane sugar, mostly from Latin America. It refines and sells sugar to food and beverage makers in Canada, the United States, Mexico and the Caribbean. It owns cane sugar refineries in Hamilton, Ontario, in Lackawanna, New York, and in University Park, Illinois. The Hamilton and University Park refineries started in 2026. Sucro also builds refineries in Belize and Guyana with local partners. It reports in US dollars, and its shares trade in Canadian dollars on the TSX Venture Exchange. The founder controls about half of the votes. The Mexican refiner Beta San Miguel owns about 16% and has an option to bid for the company from May 2027.
- Thesis
- The market prices Sucro between two values. On cash earnings, the company is worth less than its price, because interest uses almost all of its adjusted EBITDA. Most of its reported profit is unrealized gains on sugar contracts and inventory, and management estimates many of these values. A takeover bid by Beta San Miguel would value the company higher, because the minimum bid price is linked to the audited 2026 earnings. The price stays below the AI estimate because nobody knows if Beta San Miguel will bid, and the company depends on short-term bank lines that are mostly uncommitted. New US trade measures against Canadian sugar products also add doubt about the cross-border model. For the gap to close, one of two things must happen. The new Hamilton and University Park refineries must increase cash margins, so that adjusted EBITDA without one-off items rises to about US$8 million a quarter and debt starts to fall. Or Beta San Miguel must make a bid, which it can do from May 1, 2027. The strategic review can also add value through asset sales or share buybacks. The evidence arrives with the Q3 2026 results in about November 2026, the audited 2026 results in about April 2027, and the start of the bid window on May 1, 2027. If refinery margins do not recover and no bid comes, the price will probably stay low or fall, because the high debt leaves little value for shareholders.
- Valuation
- The fair value, the moat and the uncertainty on this page for Sucro are an AI estimate from October 8, 2026. They are not an analyst's values. An AI research agent calculated them from Sucro's filings. The fair value is the average of two cases, and each case has a weight of 50%. These weights are an assumption. Case 1 has no takeover bid. It values the business at 8 times adjusted EBITDA, and the multiple of 8 is an assumption. It uses the 2025 adjusted EBITDA of US$31.0 million, from before the new refineries added volume. From this value it takes away US$132.4 million of adjusted net debt at June 30, 2026, US$18.3 million of leases and US$0.5 million due to related parties. Adjusted net debt is loans less cash and less the collateral value of inventory and receivables, as Sucro calculates it. Case 1 gives about US$4.01 per share on 24.07 million shares, with each proportionate voting share counted as 100 shares. Case 2 is a bid by Beta San Miguel in 2027 at the minimum price in its agreement. This price is 9 times the diluted comprehensive income per share in the audited 2026 results. The estimate doubles the first-half 2026 figure of US$0.575 per share (US$13.9 million on 24.2 million diluted shares) to get US$1.15 for the full year. Case 2 gives about US$10.36 per share. The average of the two cases is US$7.19 per share, or about CA$10.20 at 1.42 Canadian dollars per US dollar. The two cases are far apart, so the uncertainty is Very High. The moat rating is None. The Q2 2026 MD&A of August 13, 2026 says that Sucro earns a margin from differences in the time, the place and the quality of sugar. Sugar is a commodity, and other refiners sell the same product in Canada and the United States. The refining margin fell by US$28.37 to US$87.28 per tonne in Q2 2026, because of customs duties, tariffs and freight costs. Interest of US$23.3 million in the 12 months to June 30, 2026 used almost all of the US$24.0 million of adjusted EBITDA, so returns are not above the cost of capital. Canadian duties on imported refined sugar and Caribbean trade rules help Sucro. But governments set them, and Canada started a review of its duties in July 2026, so they are not a durable advantage.
As of 2026-10-08.
- Risks
- Most of the equity is unrealized gains on sugar contracts and inventory. Management estimates many of these values. A write-down would reduce equity and borrowing capacity.
Debt is high. Cash earnings only just cover interest. Most bank lines are uncommitted and depend on the value of the collateral.
US trade measures can hurt the business. These include the molasses import ban, tariffs on Canadian goods and pressure from the US sugar industry.
The new refineries can ramp up more slowly than planned. University Park ran below plan in Q2 2026, and the Belize project is late.
The founder controls the company. Beta San Miguel has a lock-up agreement that can lead to a bid at a price that minority holders cannot block.
The stock trades only a few thousand shares a day. It can be hard to sell a position quickly.
Canada can end its duties on cheap imported refined sugar after the current review. This would put pressure on margins in Canada.
- Balance sheet
- Sucro borrows mostly against its sugar inventory and receivables. Thus its debt rises and falls with the amount of sugar it holds. At June 30, 2026, loans and borrowings were US$360.2 million, plus US$18.3 million of leases. Against this, it had US$2.5 million of cash and US$225.6 million of equity. About US$206 million of the debt was the Rabobank-led borrowing base. Sucro renewed it in August 2026 at up to US$285 million, but only US$23.8 million of that is committed. At June 30, 2026, Sucro could draw only US$4.8 million more on the collateral. Another US$104 million is secured equipment and real estate loans for the new refineries. US$17.5 million of this term debt is due within 12 months, and management plans to refinance it by the end of 2026. Interest of US$23.3 million in the 12 months to June 30, 2026 used almost all of the US$24.0 million of adjusted EBITDA. The company's own adjusted leverage ratio rose to 5.5 times. Most of the equity is unrealized gains on forward sugar contracts and inventory, about US$198 million net. Much of it is Level 3, so a write-down would cut equity and borrowing capacity at the same time. Sucro has no credit rating. The debt limits the company's choices, because it depends on lenders that renew uncommitted lines. A weak quarter could force asset sales or an equity raise.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 13, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: underlying adjusted EBITDA. Pending. Watch: Adjusted EBITDA near US$8 million without one-off items passes; a figure near US$3 million to US$5 million, as in Q2, fails.
Nov 27, 2026: Canada CBSA decision on refined sugar duty expiry review. Pending. Watch: A CBSA finding that dumping is likely to continue, which keeps the review going, passes; a decision to end the review fails.
Dec 2026 (estimate): Refinancing of US$17.5 million term debt due within 12 months. Pending. Watch: Sucro refinances this debt by year-end 2026 on similar terms passes; a delay or a forced asset sale to repay it fails.
Apr 2027 (estimate): Audited 2026 results set Beta San Miguel's minimum bid price. Pending. Watch: Audited results that keep the reported gains and show debt starting to fall pass; a write-down of contract or inventory values fails.
May 1, 2027: Beta San Miguel takeover bid window opens. Pending. Watch: A bid by Beta San Miguel at or above the formula floor passes; no bid in the 2027 window fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-29: A US ban on imports of Canadian molasses took effect. Sucro says it stopped shipping molasses to the US after April 2026.
2026-09-09: Beta San Miguel bought 10,000 Sucro shares in the market at CA$9.63. It also bought 4,500 shares on September 4.
2026-08-13: Sucro reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue fell 44% to US$130.6 million. Net income was US$8.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA was US$8.3 million, which includes US$4.9 million of tariff refunds.
2026-08-13: Sucro renewed its main borrowing base facility at up to US$285 million. Only US$23.8 million of it is committed. The company leverage ratio rose to 5.5 times.
2026-07-02: Canada started an expiry review of its duties on refined sugar from the US and Europe. The CBSA must decide by November 27, 2026, and the CITT by May 7, 2027.
2026-06-30: The board started a strategic review. It can include asset sales, joint ventures and share buybacks. A sale of the company is not included.
2026-05-08: The new Hamilton refinery opened officially. It cost about CA$135 million. Its target capacity is up to 1 million tonnes a year.
2026-04-24: Sucro asked the USDA to withdraw a study that said most molasses imports through Buffalo failed the purity test.
2026-04-16: Sucro reported 2025 results. Net income was US$41.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA fell 9% to US$30.9 million.
2026-03-18: Sucro signed a raw sugar supply agreement with HMC Farms in Louisiana for the University Park refinery.