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RELXInformation analytics & professional publishing

RELX

Wide moatMedium uncertainty

Updated

Price
$36.13
Fair value
fair value $57.00
Discount
36.6% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 1.67 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Oct 22 ·

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In short

Thesis
Investors fear that AI chatbots will replace the research tools of RELX, so the gap closes slowly as Legal and STM keep growing faster than the group.
Gap
Slow. Any new AI product from a rival can reopen the fear, so Legal and STM must outgrow it for several years.
Next test
: Nine-month trading update: Legal and STM growth

About

RELX is a UK-based information and analytics company built from four businesses. Risk, sold under the LexisNexis Risk Solutions brand, is the largest segment at about 37% of first-half 2026 revenue; it sells data and analytics tools that insurers, banks, and government agencies use to screen for fraud, verify identities, and price risk. Scientific, Technical & Medical (STM), sold under the Elsevier brand, is about 28% of revenue; it publishes scientific and medical journals and sells research databases such as ScienceDirect and Scopus that researchers and universities pay to access. Legal, sold under LexisNexis Legal & Professional, is about 20% of revenue; it sells legal research databases, case law, and AI-powered tools such as Lexis+ AI to law firms and corporate legal departments.

Exhibitions, run under the RX brand, is about 12% of revenue; it organizes trade shows and conferences worldwide, earning money from exhibitor space, sponsorships, and attendee fees. RELX shares trade on the London Stock Exchange (its main listing), Euronext Amsterdam, and the New York Stock Exchange, where each ADR represents one ordinary share; the company merged its former dual UK/Dutch corporate structure into a single company, RELX PLC, in 2018. Erik Engstrom has been CEO since 2009, and Nick Luff has been CFO since 2014.

Thesis

Investors fear that AI chatbots will replace RELX's subscription research tools. This fear centers on Legal and STM (scientific, technical, and medical publishing), the two segments that produce most of RELX's profit. A single AI product launch by a rival can trigger a sharp sell-off, as it did in February 2026. The gap can close if Legal and STM keep growing revenue and profit faster than the group average, the way they did in the first half of 2026.

It can also close if the analysts keep rating RELX's competitive strength, its "Economic Moat," as Wide while they downgrade rivals on AI risk. The Doctrine acquisition, completed in September 2026, must show it can win legal AI subscriptions across continental Europe, not only in France. RELX will issue its nine-month trading update on October 22, 2026. Full-year 2026 results are due around February 2027.

If Legal and STM keep outgrowing the AI fear through those reports, the discount can start to close over the next two to four quarters. Because the fear is driven by sentiment, a new AI product launch from any competitor, even one aimed at a different company, could reopen the gap at any time.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 22, 2026Pending
    Nine-month trading update: Legal and STM growthLegal and STM growth at or above the first-half pace and the full-year outlook kept pass; slower Legal or STM growth or a weaker outlook fails.
  2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending
    Full-year 2026 results and 2027 buyback planUnderlying revenue growth near 7% with Legal and STM profit growth above group average and a new buyback in line with past years pass; slowing Legal growth or a smaller buyback fails.
  3. Apr 2027 · est.Pending
    AGM trading update: Doctrine and legal AI salesStatements that Lexis+ AI and Doctrine grow subscriptions across Europe and that full-year guidance holds pass; signs of customers moving to rival AI tools fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
£220M
Debt
£8.9B
Net debt
£8.7B
Net debt / EBITDA
2.3×
as the company states it
Interest cover
13×
times profit pays interest

Cash against debt

Cash£220M
Debt£8.9B

debt covered by cashnet debt £8.7B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

Credit ratings

  • S&P A- · stable
  • Fitch A- · stable
  • Moody's A3 · stable

RELX funds itself with strong subscription cash flow and with bonds, bank loans and commercial paper, mostly in US dollars and euros. The borrowings have an average remaining life of only 3.7 years, down from 4.0 years at the end of 2025.

Risks

  • Generative AI chatbots and AI-native legal and research tools, like Anthropic's Claude legal plug-in, could reduce demand for RELX's subscription research products over time. Legal is the segment investors worry about most, and it already has RELX's lowest operating margin, at 21.7% in the first half of 2026.
  • RELX's Risk segment sells data to government agencies, including ICE for immigration enforcement. In March 2026, more than 200 journalists at Law360 and related titles publicly objected to this, The American Friends Service Committee estimates that RELX subsidiaries received more than $172 million in US Department of Homeland Security contracts from 2005 to 2024. Continued controversy could bring reputational and regulatory risk.
  • Net debt rose to £8,733m (2.3x EBITDA) at the end of June 2026, up from £7,201m (2.0x) at the end of 2025, because RELX spent £1,750m on buybacks. In the second half, more buybacks, the interim dividend and the Doctrine acquisition add to net debt. Further leverage increases would use up capacity for future deals or buybacks.
  • LexisNexis has had more than one data breach. In March 2026, LexisNexis confirmed a breach; the attacker claimed about 400,000 records, and the company said that the data was mostly from before 2020 and held no Social Security or financial data. In 2025, LexisNexis Risk Solutions disclosed a different breach that affected about 364,000 people. Repeated breaches could damage trust with customers who rely on RELX to protect sensitive personal data.
  • The Doctrine acquisition and other legal-AI deals expand RELX's position in European legal information services, where regulators may scrutinize further consolidation given RELX's already strong market position.
  • RELX's Exhibitions segment, about 12% of revenue, depends on global business travel and event spending, which can fall quickly in a recession or health scare, as it did during the pandemic.
  • Because much of the current share-price discount is tied to a single debate over whether AI helps or hurts RELX, a new competing AI product launch, even one aimed at a rival, can trigger another sharp, sentiment-driven drop in RELX's stock regardless of its own results, as happened in February 2026.

Recent events

  • September 7, 2026RELX started a new £125m share buyback tranche, to run until October 21, 2026. With the earlier tranches, the 2026 buybacks reach about £2,125m of the £2,250m target. This total is our sum of RELX's own announcements.
  • September 4, 2026RELX announced that it had completed its acquisition of Doctrine, a French legal AI platform used daily by 27,000 legal professionals across France, Italy, Germany, Spain, and Luxembourg. The deal extends Lexis+ AI into continental Europe. RELX did not disclose the price.
  • July 23, 2026RELX reported H1 2026 results: revenue of £4,871m, up 7% on an underlying basis, and adjusted operating profit of £1,727m, up 9%. All four segments grew, led by Legal at +10% revenue and +13% profit. The interim dividend rose 7% to 20.9p, and £1,750m of shares were repurchased in the half.
Show 5 older events
  • April 28, 2026RELX agreed to acquire Doctrine, a French legal AI platform, to expand LexisNexis's legal AI offering across continental Europe, including France, Italy, Germany, and Spain.
  • April 23, 2026In an AGM trading update, RELX said it had started 2026 well across all four business areas and reaffirmed full-year guidance for strong underlying growth in revenue, profit, and earnings per share.
  • March 5, 2026The analysts downgraded competitors Wolters Kluwer and Thomson Reuters to Narrow moat ratings on AI disruption risk, while keeping RELX at Wide, and raised RELX's Uncertainty Rating to Medium from Low.
  • February 12, 2026RELX reported full-year 2025 results: revenue of £9,590m, up 7% on an underlying basis, and adjusted operating profit of £3,342m, up 9%. Adjusted earnings per share grew 10% to 128.5p. The board raised the full-year dividend 7% to 67.5p and set a £2,250m share buyback target for 2026.
  • February 3, 2026RELX shares fell about 14% in a single day after Anthropic launched a Claude legal plug-in aimed at in-house legal teams, part of a broader selloff in legal and data-analytics stocks, including Thomson Reuters and Wolters Kluwer, on fears of AI disruption to subscription research businesses.

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Read it all? Star RELX or pass, then go on to the next one.