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INTUFinancial software

Intuit

Narrow moatHigh uncertainty

Updated

Price
$302.75
Fair value
fair value $430.00
Discount
29.6% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.36 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Nov 19 · · estimated

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In short

Thesis
Investors fear that free AI tools will take customers from TurboTax and Credit Karma, and the 2027 tax season is the main test of that fear.
Gap
Can close. The January to April 2027 tax season shows whether TurboTax keeps its price-sensitive filers.
Next test
(estimate): Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings: first read before tax season

About

Intuit makes financial software for consumers, small businesses and accountants. Its main products are TurboTax for tax filing, QuickBooks for small business accounting, Credit Karma for credit monitoring and personal finance, Mailchimp for marketing, and ProTax software (Lacerte, ProSeries and ProConnect) for tax professionals. Intuit earns money from software subscriptions and tax filing fees.

QuickBooks also earns money from payments, payroll and small business loans. Credit Karma earns money when its users take loans, credit cards or insurance from partner lenders and insurers.

Thesis

Investors fear that free AI tools will let simple tax filers skip TurboTax. They also fear that people will manage their money inside AI chat tools such as ChatGPT and visit Credit Karma less. This fear deepened in May 2026, when Intuit cut its TurboTax revenue guidance. Intuit said it lost price-sensitive filers and cut 17% of its workforce.

Two securities class actions followed in July and August 2026, which add legal cost and negative attention. A change in how Intuit reports earnings adds confusion. From fiscal 2027, non-GAAP earnings include stock pay, so the fiscal 2027 guidance looks lower than the fiscal 2026 figure on the old basis. The gap can close if Intuit's own AI agents and its apps inside ChatGPT and Claude keep customers filing and banking with Intuit.

Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 14% to $21.4 billion, and the newer "Big Bets" products grew 34%. At its September 17, 2026 investor day, Intuit reiterated 9% to 10% revenue growth for fiscal 2027. The real test is the next tax season, from January to April 2027. TurboTax must show that it keeps its price-sensitive filers this time.

Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings in late November 2026 give the first read before that season starts. If TurboTax holds share through the 2027 tax season and Credit Karma keeps growing, the AI-disruption discount should start to close over the next two to four quarters.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 19, 2026 · est.Pending
    Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings: first read before tax seasonRevenue on track for the 9% to 10% fiscal 2027 growth guidance and steady Credit Karma growth pass; a guidance cut or weak Credit Karma fails.
  2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending
    Fiscal Q2 2027 earnings: early tax season signsTurboTax guidance kept and no new loss of price-sensitive filers pass; a lower TurboTax outlook fails.
  3. May 2027 · est.Pending
    Fiscal Q3 2027 earnings: TurboTax tax season 2027 resultTurboTax units and revenue that meet guidance and keep share pass; a second year of lost filers or a revenue cut fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$7.2B
Debt
$7.7B
Net debt
$500M
Net debt / EBITDA
0.1×
EBITDA $6.7B, last 12 months
Interest cover
23×
times profit pays interest
Credit line
$2.2B
undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$7.2B
Debt$7.7B

debt covered by cashnet debt $500M

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

When the debt is due

12 months$1.3B
Later$6.5B

Credit ratings

  • Moody's A3 · stable
  • S&P A · stable

Intuit funds itself mainly with cash from operations and with unsecured notes that the parent company issues. Free cash flow of about $8.6 billion in fiscal 2026 paid for $5.5 billion of buybacks (13.4 million shares) and $1.3 billion of dividends.

Risks

  • AI-native tools may let simple tax filers complete a return without paying for TurboTax. TurboTax units fell 2% to 39.0 million in fiscal 2026, and Intuit guides only 2% to 3% TurboTax revenue growth for fiscal 2027.
  • OpenAI launched a personal finance feature in ChatGPT on May 15, 2026, with budgets from linked bank accounts. If people manage their money inside ChatGPT, they can visit Credit Karma less. Credit Karma is Intuit's fastest-growing business, with fiscal 2026 revenue up 20%. Credit Karma has its own app inside ChatGPT, which reduces this risk.
  • Two US securities class actions allege that Intuit made misleading statements about TurboTax's position with do-it-yourself filers before the May 2026 guidance cut. At September 9, 2026, the court had not appointed a lead plaintiff. In Canada, an Ontario court certified a consumer class action on July 24, 2026, and Intuit plans to appeal. These cases add legal cost and negative attention.
  • Intuit is cutting 17% of its full-time workforce while it launches new AI agent products. Intuit expects the plan to cost about $315 million and to be mostly done in Q1 fiscal 2027. A restructuring this large can slow product work or hurt customer service.

Recent events

  • September 17, 2026At its investor day, Intuit reiterated fiscal 2027 guidance: revenue of $23.28 to $23.51 billion (9% to 10% growth) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $22.88 to $23.12 (23% to 24% growth on the new basis). It also set three-year targets: 10% to 15% yearly growth for Global Business Solutions, 4% to 8% for Consumer, and non-GAAP EPS growth in the high teens or more.
  • August 25, 2026Intuit reported fiscal 2026 results. Revenue grew 14% to $21.4 billion, and the newer 'Big Bets' products grew 34%. Intuit guided 9% to 10% revenue growth for fiscal 2027 and raised the quarterly dividend 15% to $1.38. From fiscal 2027, non-GAAP earnings include stock pay. The stock fell about 12% on the next day.
  • August 17, 2026A second class action, Bruce v. Intuit, was filed in the same court. It covers a longer period, from February 25, 2025 to June 1, 2026.
Show 3 older events
  • July 10, 2026A shareholder filed a securities class action, Baldwin v. Intuit, in the US District Court for the Northern District of California. It alleges misleading statements about TurboTax's position with do-it-yourself filers from August 22, 2025 to May 20, 2026.
  • May 20, 2026Intuit reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $8.56 billion, up 10%. It lowered its TurboTax outlook because it lost price-sensitive filers. It also announced a cut of 17% of its full-time workforce, about 3,000 jobs according to Reuters.
  • February 24, 2026Intuit announced a multi-year partnership with Anthropic. TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks and Mailchimp connect to Claude products, and Intuit builds custom AI agents for mid-market businesses with the Claude Agent SDK. Intuit signed a similar deal with OpenAI in November 2025.

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Read it all? Star INTU or pass, then go on to the next one.