Skip to content

VZTelecommunications

Verizon

Narrow moatHigh uncertainty

Updated

Price
$44.79
Fair value
fair value $54.00
Discount
17.1% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.46 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Oct 26 ·

Loading your notes…

In short

Thesis
The market prices Verizon for slow growth and high debt, and faster service revenue growth with strong free cash flow through 2026 and 2027 can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q3 2026 report on October 26, 2026 and the 2027 guidance in January 2027 show whether service revenue growth speeds up.
Next test
: Q3 2026 earnings: service revenue growth

About

Verizon provides wireless phone service, home broadband and network services, mostly in the United States. Its largest business is postpaid mobile service for consumers and businesses. It also sells fiber broadband and fixed wireless access broadband. It bought Frontier Communications on January 20, 2026, which expanded its fiber network to 31 states and Washington, D.C., and it bought Starry on January 30, 2026.

Revenue was $138.2 billion in 2025. At June 30, 2026, Verizon had about 17.1 million fixed wireless access and fiber broadband connections. Dan Schulman is CEO.

Thesis

The market prices Verizon for slow growth and high debt. Total operating revenue fell 0.7% in Q2 2026, because equipment revenue fell by more than $1.2 billion as customers kept their phones longer and Verizon cut device subsidies. Verizon expects wireless service revenue to be about flat in 2026. Unsecured debt was $136.5 billion at June 30, 2026, and the wireless market has strong price competition.

For the gap to close, three things must be true. Mobility and broadband service revenue growth must rise to about 4% in Q4 2026, as Verizon expects, from 2.8% in Q2. Postpaid phone net additions must reach the upper half of the 750,000 to 1.0 million range for 2026. Free cash flow must grow 9% to 10% in 2026, so that Verizon can pay its dividend, buy back up to $4.5 billion of shares and reduce debt.

The Q3 2026 report on October 26, 2026 gives the first test. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance in January 2027 show whether growth continues. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a price war in wireless, which can stop the subscriber gains or lower margins.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 26, 2026Pending
    Q3 2026 earnings: service revenue growthMobility and broadband service revenue growth near 3% and positive postpaid phone net additions pass; slower service revenue growth or a guidance cut fails.
  2. Jan 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidanceService revenue growth near 4% in Q4 2026 and 2027 guidance for free cash flow growth pass; growth below 3% or lower free cash flow guidance fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$1.8B
Debt
$136.5B
Net debt
$134.7B
Net debt / EBITDA
2.5×
as the company states it
Interest cover
3.9×
times profit pays interest

Cash against debt

Cash$1.8B
Debt$136.5B

debt covered by cashnet debt $134.7B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

Verizon funds its business with unsecured notes and other debt in several currencies. At June 30, 2026, unsecured debt was $136.5 billion, down from $142.5 billion at March 31, 2026, and cash was $1.75 billion.

Risks

  • The wireless market has strong price competition. If competitors cut prices or raise promotions, Verizon can lose its subscriber gains or must accept lower margins.
  • Unsecured debt was $136.5 billion at June 30, 2026. Higher interest rates increase the cost to refinance it, and the debt limits the money left for buybacks.
  • Verizon is changing its business model, with lower device subsidies and large cost cuts. Q2 2026 included $397 million of severance charges and $258 million of asset charges. If the changes harm customer service, churn can rise.
  • The joint venture with BT needs regulatory approvals. A delay or new conditions can change its value.

Recent events

  • September 25, 2026The board elected Charles Phillips, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Recognize Partners, as a director.
  • July 24, 2026Verizon reported Q2 2026 results. Mobility and broadband service revenue rose 2.8% to about $23.4 billion, and postpaid phone net additions were 184,000. Adjusted EPS was $1.30 and adjusted EBITDA was a record $13.7 billion. Net income fell 22.9% to $3.9 billion because of $1.8 billion of special items. Verizon raised its 2026 guidance to adjusted EPS of $4.99 to $5.04 and raised its buyback target to up to $4.5 billion.
  • June 28, 2026Verizon agreed with BT Group to combine their international wireline connectivity and managed network services businesses in a 50/50 joint venture. Verizon will pay $625 million in cash. It expected a loss of $700 million to $800 million in Q2 2026 when it classified its business as held for sale. The deal needs regulatory approvals.
Show 1 older event
  • January 20, 2026Verizon completed the purchase of Frontier Communications, which expanded its fiber footprint to 31 states and Washington, D.C.

Similar companies

  • DTEGYDeutsche TelekomShares: Interest rates, High debt
    Discount
    35.0%
    LSEG
    1.50
    Gap
    Slow
  • ICEIntercontinental ExchangeShares: Interest rates, High debt
    Discount
    13.8%
    LSEG
    2.00
    Gap
    Can close
  • BNBrookfield CorporationShares: Interest rates, High debt
    Discount
    45.9% (Management)
    LSEG
    2.15
    Gap
    Will probably not close
  • JHXJames HardieShares: High debt, Interest rates
    Discount
    18.0%
    LSEG
    1.50
    Gap
    Can close
  • LOWLowe'sShares: Interest rates, High debt
    Discount
    23.5%
    LSEG
    2.03
    Gap
    Slow

Read it all? Star VZ or pass, then go on to the next one.