Tradeweb

Tradeweb runs electronic marketplaces where banks, asset managers, hedge funds and other institutions trade bonds, swaps, ETFs and money market products. It reports revenue in four asset classes: rates, credit, equities and money markets. Rates is the largest; it gave $302.5 million of the $558.9 million of revenue in Q2 2026. Tradeweb earns variable fees on each trade and fixed subscription fees for access to its platforms.

It also sells market data, mostly to LSEG under a license agreement. In Q2 2026, average daily volume on its platforms was $3.0 trillion. LSEG owns a controlling stake, with 90.0% of the voting power and 51.2% of the economic interest at June 30, 2026.

The market doubts that Tradeweb can keep its growth when market volatility falls and competition in credit trading gets stronger. Revenue grew 21.2% in Q1 2026, when volatility was high, and only 9.0% in Q2 2026, when volatility was more normal. In credit, volume grows faster than revenue. In Q2 2026, US credit volume rose 10.3%, but credit revenue rose only 3.3%, because the average fee per million on cash credit fell 11.4% as trading moved to lower-fee products.

ICE agreed on July 30, 2026 to buy MarketAxess, the main competitor in US credit, and investors expect a stronger rival after the deal closes in 2027. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue must keep growing near 10% a year with normal volatility. Credit revenue must grow with credit volume, so the fall in fee per million must stop.

Tradeweb's share of fully electronic US high grade trading, 19.0% in Q2 2026, must keep rising after ICE owns MarketAxess. The first check is the Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026; Q3 average daily volume, already reported, was 22.4% higher than a year earlier. The full-year 2026 report and the 2027 expense guidance follow in early 2027, and the ICE and MarketAxess closing is expected in the first half of 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.

If lower fees in credit continue, the gap can stay longer.

1. Oct 29, 2026Pending

   Q3 2026 results: revenue growth and credit feesRevenue growth near the 22.4% rise in Q3 volume and a credit fee per million that stops falling pass; credit revenue that again grows much slower than credit volume fails.
2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending

   Full-year 2026 results and 2027 expense guidanceAn adjusted EBITDA margin that holds near 2026 levels with 2027 expense growth below revenue growth passes; expense guidance that lowers the margin fails.
3. Q2 2027 · est.Pending

   ICE completes the MarketAxess purchaseStable or higher Tradeweb shares of fully electronic US high grade and high yield trading in the quarters after the closing pass; share losses or fee cuts to match the new rival fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Tradeweb has no debt. At June 30, 2026, it had $2,058 million of cash and cash equivalents and no borrowings under its $500 million unsecured revolving credit facility, which started in November 2023 for five years. Read more

• Competition in electronic credit trading can lower fees and market share. In Q2 2026, the average fee per million on cash credit fell 11.4%, and Tradeweb's total share of US high grade TRACE volume fell 29 basis points to 25.7%. ICE plans to buy MarketAxess in the first half of 2027, which joins the main credit competitor to a larger company with more resources.
• Trading volume depends on market volatility and interest rate moves. Revenue grew 21.2% in Q1 2026 and 9.0% in Q2 2026, when volatility was more normal. A long calm market can slow volume and revenue growth.
• LSEG controls Tradeweb, with 90.0% of the voting power at June 30, 2026. LSEG is also the largest buyer of Tradeweb's market data, and the 2026 guidance includes about $105 million of revenue from that contract. Decisions by LSEG, or a change to the contract, can affect other shareholders.
• Tradeweb invests in new areas such as digital assets on the Canton Network and prediction market data with Kalshi. At June 30, 2026, it held Canton Coins valued at $230.0 million, and it can transfer only part of them. The value of these coins can change quickly.

• October 6, 2026Tradeweb reported September 2026 average daily volume of $3.7 trillion, up 29.0% from a year earlier. Q3 2026 average daily volume was $3.2 trillion, up 22.4%. US government bond volume rose 29% in September, and fully electronic US high grade credit had a record month.
• September 9, 2026Tradeweb set October 29, 2026 as the date of its Q3 2026 results, with a call at 9:30 a.m. EDT.
• July 30, 2026Tradeweb reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $558.9 million, up 9.0%. Adjusted EPS was $0.97, up 11.5%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 54.4%. Credit revenue grew only 3.3%, and the average fee per million on cash credit fell 11.4%. Tradeweb kept its 2026 adjusted expense guidance of $1,100 to $1,160 million, toward the top half of the range. It bought back $188.9 million of stock in the quarter and raised its dividend 16.7% from a year earlier, to $0.14 per share.