- Price
- $217.39
- Fair value
- $253.00
- Discount
- 14.1%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.00
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2027-01-15
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- PNC Financial Services
- Sector
- Banks
- About
- PNC Financial Services is one of the largest banks in the United States, based in Pittsburgh. Its main businesses are Retail Banking, Corporate & Institutional Banking, and Asset Management. At September 30, 2026, PNC had total assets of $627.8 billion, loans of $378.8 billion and deposits of $466.4 billion. On January 5, 2026, PNC bought FirstBank Holding Company, the owner of FirstBank, for $4.2 billion in cash and PNC shares. PNC is growing in the Southeast and Southwest and in new markets across the country.
- Thesis
- The market prices PNC as a bank whose profit depends on interest rates and on the credit quality of commercial loans. Its capital ratio fell after the FirstBank purchase: the CET1 ratio was 9.8% at September 30, 2026, down from 10.7% a year earlier. Unrealized losses in accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) grew to $6.5 billion from $4.1 billion in one quarter. Commercial nonperforming loans also rose in Q3 2026. The baseline forecast of PNC expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December 2026 and March 2027, which can raise funding costs and bond losses. For the gap to close, PNC must reach its Q4 2026 outlook: net interest income up about 4.0%, adjusted expenses up about 5.0% and net charge-offs near $250 million. It must also reach the net interest margin of 3.0% or more that it expects, and keep its capital ratio stable while it buys back shares. The Q4 2026 report, expected in mid-January 2027, is the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a rise in commercial loan losses, which would lower earnings and capital.
- Risks
- Commercial loans are most of the loan book, and commercial nonperforming loans rose in Q3 2026. A weaker economy can raise loan losses and lower earnings and capital.
Higher bond yields increase the unrealized losses on securities, which grew to $6.5 billion in Q3 2026. Rate increases by the Federal Reserve can also raise deposit costs faster than loan yields.
The CET1 ratio fell to 9.8% after the FirstBank purchase. Lower capital limits share buybacks, and new capital rules can change how much capital PNC must hold.
The integration of FirstBank continues. Higher costs or lost customers can lower the expected benefit of the purchase.
- Balance sheet
- PNC funds itself mostly with deposits. At September 30, 2026, deposits were $466.4 billion, and borrowed funds were $79.8 billion, down $6.0 billion in the quarter as PNC reduced Federal Home Loan Bank advances. Interest-earning deposits with banks were $24.7 billion, and investment securities were $146.4 billion. Loans were $378.8 billion, with an allowance for credit losses of $5.4 billion, or 1.42% of loans. Capital is the real limit. The estimated CET1 ratio was 9.8%, and the stress capital buffer stays at the minimum of 2.5% through September 30, 2027. Common equity was $56.5 billion, including AOCI of negative $6.5 billion, and tangible book value was $107.64 per share. The average liquidity coverage ratio was 106% in Q3 2026, and available parent company liquidity was $31.4 billion at June 30, 2026.
As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Jan 15, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: margin and credit. Pending. Watch: Net interest income up about 4.0% from Q3 and net charge-offs near $250 million pass; a lower margin or a jump in charge-offs fails.
Apr 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: net interest margin. Pending. Watch: A net interest margin of 3.0% or more with a stable CET1 ratio passes; a margin that stays below 2.95% fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-15: PNC reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $2.1 billion, or $4.97 per diluted share, and $5.09 as adjusted. Net interest income rose 2% from Q2 to $4.2 billion, and the net interest margin was 2.94%. Fee income fell 6% after a strong Q2 in capital markets, and expenses fell 8%. The efficiency ratio was 57%, and return on tangible common equity was 18.3%.
2026-10-15: In Q3 2026, net loan charge-offs were $257 million, including $35 million from the transfer of a $1.4 billion student loan portfolio to held for sale. Nonperforming loans rose 8% to $2.2 billion, driven by commercial loans. The CET1 ratio was an estimated 9.8%, and AOCI was negative $6.5 billion. PNC returned $1.4 billion to shareholders and expects Q4 buybacks near the Q3 level.
2026-10-02: The board declared a quarterly dividend of $2.00 per share, payable on November 5, 2026. Dividends declared in Q3 2026 were $2.00 per share, up from $1.70 in Q2 2026.
2026-09-29: PNC said that it will redeem all $525 million of its Series S preferred stock on November 2, 2026.
2026-01-05: PNC completed its purchase of FirstBank Holding Company for $4.2 billion in cash and PNC shares. Integration costs were $127 million in Q2 2026 and $36 million in Q3 2026.