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PNCBanks

PNC Financial Services

Narrow moatMedium uncertainty

Updated

Price
$217.39
Fair value
fair value $253.00
Discount
14.1% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.00 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 15 · · estimated

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In short

Thesis
The market prices PNC for rate risk and weaker commercial credit after the FirstBank purchase, and a higher margin with stable loan losses over the next two to four quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q4 2026 report in January 2027 and the next quarters show whether the net interest margin rises and commercial loan losses stay low.
Next test
(estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: margin and credit

About

PNC Financial Services is one of the largest banks in the United States, based in Pittsburgh. Its main businesses are Retail Banking, Corporate & Institutional Banking, and Asset Management. At September 30, 2026, PNC had total assets of $627.8 billion, loans of $378.8 billion and deposits of $466.4 billion.

On January 5, 2026, PNC bought FirstBank Holding Company, the owner of FirstBank, for $4.2 billion in cash and PNC shares. PNC is growing in the Southeast and Southwest and in new markets across the country.

Thesis

The market prices PNC as a bank whose profit depends on interest rates and on the credit quality of commercial loans. Its capital ratio fell after the FirstBank purchase: the CET1 ratio was 9.8% at September 30, 2026, down from 10.7% a year earlier. Unrealized losses in accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) grew to $6.5 billion from $4.1 billion in one quarter. Commercial nonperforming loans also rose in Q3 2026.

The baseline forecast of PNC expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December 2026 and March 2027, which can raise funding costs and bond losses. For the gap to close, PNC must reach its Q4 2026 outlook: net interest income up about 4.0%, adjusted expenses up about 5.0% and net charge-offs near $250 million. It must also reach the net interest margin of 3.0% or more that it expects, and keep its capital ratio stable while it buys back shares. The Q4 2026 report, expected in mid-January 2027, is the next test.

If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a rise in commercial loan losses, which would lower earnings and capital.

Checkpoints

  1. Jan 15, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 earnings: margin and creditNet interest income up about 4.0% from Q3 and net charge-offs near $250 million pass; a lower margin or a jump in charge-offs fails.
  2. Apr 2027 · est.Pending
    Q1 2027 results: net interest marginA net interest margin of 3.0% or more with a stable CET1 ratio passes; a margin that stays below 2.95% fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

PNC funds itself mostly with deposits. At September 30, 2026, deposits were $466.4 billion, and borrowed funds were $79.8 billion, down $6.0 billion in the quarter as PNC reduced Federal Home Loan Bank advances.

Risks

  • Commercial loans are most of the loan book, and commercial nonperforming loans rose in Q3 2026. A weaker economy can raise loan losses and lower earnings and capital.
  • Higher bond yields increase the unrealized losses on securities, which grew to $6.5 billion in Q3 2026. Rate increases by the Federal Reserve can also raise deposit costs faster than loan yields.
  • The CET1 ratio fell to 9.8% after the FirstBank purchase. Lower capital limits share buybacks, and new capital rules can change how much capital PNC must hold.
  • The integration of FirstBank continues. Higher costs or lost customers can lower the expected benefit of the purchase.

Recent events

  • October 15, 2026PNC reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $2.1 billion, or $4.97 per diluted share, and $5.09 as adjusted. Net interest income rose 2% from Q2 to $4.2 billion, and the net interest margin was 2.94%. Fee income fell 6% after a strong Q2 in capital markets, and expenses fell 8%. The efficiency ratio was 57%, and return on tangible common equity was 18.3%.
  • October 15, 2026In Q3 2026, net loan charge-offs were $257 million, including $35 million from the transfer of a $1.4 billion student loan portfolio to held for sale. Nonperforming loans rose 8% to $2.2 billion, driven by commercial loans. The CET1 ratio was an estimated 9.8%, and AOCI was negative $6.5 billion. PNC returned $1.4 billion to shareholders and expects Q4 buybacks near the Q3 level.
  • October 2, 2026The board declared a quarterly dividend of $2.00 per share, payable on November 5, 2026. Dividends declared in Q3 2026 were $2.00 per share, up from $1.70 in Q2 2026.
Show 2 older events
  • September 29, 2026PNC said that it will redeem all $525 million of its Series S preferred stock on November 2, 2026.
  • January 5, 2026PNC completed its purchase of FirstBank Holding Company for $4.2 billion in cash and PNC shares. Integration costs were $127 million in Q2 2026 and $36 million in Q3 2026.

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Read it all? Star PNC or pass, then go on to the next one.