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ONet lease REIT

Realty Income

No moatLow uncertainty

Updated

Price
$56.08
Fair value
fair value $74.00
Discount
24.2% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.68 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Nov 5 · · estimated

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In short

Thesis
The market prices Realty Income as a bond-like stock that suffers from high interest rates, and lower rates with steady growth in AFFO per share over the next four to eight quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Slow. The gap depends mostly on lower interest rates and on steady growth in AFFO per share over several years, with no single event that closes it.
Next test
(estimate): Q3 2026 results: AFFO per share and investment yields

About

Realty Income is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns commercial properties and rents them on long-term net leases. Under a net lease, the tenant pays most of the property costs, such as taxes, insurance and maintenance. At June 30, 2026, it owned or held interests in 15,588 properties, leased to 1,798 clients in 92 industries in the United States and Europe. Occupancy was 98.8%, and the weighted average remaining lease term was about 8.6 years.

Its largest clients include Dollar General, 7-Eleven, Walgreens and Family Dollar. Realty Income pays a dividend every month and has raised it for 115 consecutive quarters. It also invests through funds and joint ventures, such as a joint venture in hyperscale data centers in Northern Virginia.

Thesis

The market prices Realty Income as a bond-like stock that suffers when interest rates stay high. Realty Income grows by buying properties with borrowed money and new shares, so its growth depends on the spread between property yields and its cost of capital. Interest expense rose to $604 million in the first half of 2026 from $552 million a year earlier. AFFO per share grows slowly, by about 4% a year: Realty Income expects $4.44 to $4.45 for 2026.

Some large tenants are retailers under pressure, such as pharmacies and discount stores. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Interest rates must fall, or Realty Income must keep buying properties at yields well above its cost of capital, as with the 7.3% initial cash yield on Q2 2026 investments. Occupancy must stay near 99% and rent recapture on re-leased properties must stay above 100%.

New growth channels, such as the data center joint venture and the investment management funds, must add to AFFO per share growth. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about November 5, 2026, gives the next test. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 shows the growth rate for next year. If rates fall, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters.

The main reason it may not close is interest rates that stay high, which keep the value of income stocks low.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 5, 2026 · est.Pending
    Q3 2026 results: AFFO per share and investment yieldsAFFO per share growth near 4% and occupancy near 99% pass; a cut in 2026 guidance or occupancy below 98% fails.
  2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending
    2027 AFFO per share guidance2027 guidance for AFFO per share growth of about 4% or more passes; guidance for lower growth fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$553M
Debt
$31.0B
Net debt
$30.4B
Net debt / EBITDA
5.4×
as the company states it

Cash against debt

Cash$553M
Debt$31.0B

debt covered by cashnet debt $30.4B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

Credit ratings

  • Fitch A · stable

Realty Income funds its properties with unsecured notes, term loans, commercial paper, its credit facilities and new shares. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $30.99 billion and cash was $553 million, so net debt was $30.44 billion.

Risks

  • Higher interest rates increase the cost of new debt and reduce the spread between property yields and the cost of capital. Interest expense rose 9% in the first half of 2026. If rates stay high, growth in AFFO per share can slow.
  • Some large clients are retailers under pressure. Dollar General, Walgreens and Family Dollar together paid about 8.9% of annualized base rent at June 30, 2026. Store closures or bankruptcies can reduce rent and cause impairments, which were $144 million in the first half of 2026.
  • Realty Income now invests in new areas, such as data centers, casinos, investment management funds and European properties. These areas carry different risks, and they can give lower returns than expected.
  • Realty Income issues new shares to fund growth. If its share price stays low, new shares cost more and reduce the growth in AFFO per share.

Recent events

  • August 20, 2026Realty Income amended two term loan agreements. The Wells Fargo term loan of $500 million is now due August 20, 2027.
  • August 14, 2026Realty Income issued $1.0 billion of 3.750% convertible senior notes due 2031. The initial purchasers had an option to buy up to $125 million more.
  • August 5, 2026Realty Income reported Q2 2026 results. AFFO per share rose 3.8% to $1.09. Net income was $344 million, or $0.37 per share. It invested $2.6 billion, or $2.1 billion at its share, at an initial cash yield of 7.3%. Occupancy was 98.8%, and the rent recapture rate was 102.7%. It raised its 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $4.44 to $4.45. On August 3, 2026, Fitch Ratings gave Realty Income an issuer rating of A with a stable outlook. In the 10-Q, Realty Income said that its new joint venture with Cloud Capital expects to invest up to $1.4 billion for a 45% stake in three Northern Virginia data centers worth more than $6.0 billion, with leases of 15 to 20 years. It closed on the first asset after June 30, 2026.
Show 2 older events
  • July 10, 2026Realty Income amended its unsecured revolving credit facilities and raised their size to $5.5 billion from $4.0 billion. They have two $2.75 billion tranches that mature in April 2029 and July 2030. It also raised its commercial paper programs to $5.5 billion.
  • July 7, 2026Realty Income closed an offer of €600 million of 3.625% notes due 2032.

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