- Price
- $212.42
- Fair value
- $310.00
- Discount
- 31.5%
- Uncertainty
- Very High
- LSEG rating
- 1.72
- Moat
- Wide
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-17
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Nvidia
- Sector
- Semiconductors (AI chips)
- About
- Nvidia designs graphics processing units, called GPUs, and related hardware. Data centers use these chips to train and run AI models. Nvidia also sells networking equipment that links many chips together inside a data center. Cloud companies and AI labs buy this hardware. This is most of Nvidia's revenue.
- Thesis
- Investors worry that AI spending is a bubble. Some of Nvidia's largest customers use debt, or financing Nvidia itself provides, to pay for chips. This makes part of the demand look circular instead of organic. But Nvidia's own guidance points to real, near-term demand. Management guided Q3 fiscal 2027 revenue to $108 billion, up from $96.2 billion in the quarter just reported. The new Vera Rubin chip platform is now shipping to a broad set of customers, including OpenAI, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Meta, and CoreWeave, not just one or two large customers. This suggests the demand base is wider than the bubble worry assumes.
- Risks
- Nvidia agreed to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, to help fund OpenAI's purchase of Nvidia chips for a 10-gigawatt data center buildout. This kind of vendor financing ties Nvidia's future revenue to the financial health of one customer. It makes some reported demand harder to separate from organic demand.
Google, Amazon, and Microsoft each build their own AI chips. Custom AI chip shipments are growing faster than Nvidia's own GPU shipments. Analysts expect these custom chips to take a growing share of AI work that currently runs on Nvidia GPUs.
Nvidia's near-term outlook excludes China data center revenue, after a year of shifting US export rules for its chips. The Department of Justice also opened an antitrust probe in September 2026 into one of Nvidia's technology license deals. Both issues add regulatory uncertainty to Nvidia's growth path.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-26: Nvidia reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was $96.2 billion, up 106% from last year. Data center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117% from last year.
2025-09-22: Nvidia and OpenAI announced a partnership. Nvidia will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to help deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems.