Nvidia

Nvidia designs graphics processing units, called GPUs, and related hardware. Data centers use these chips to train and run AI models. Nvidia also sells networking equipment that links many chips together inside a data center.

Cloud companies and AI labs buy this hardware. This is most of Nvidia's revenue.

The market prices Nvidia at a discount because some of its huge revenue growth may not be fully organic. Large buyers use debt, or financing Nvidia itself provides, to pay for chips. This makes some demand look circular, meaning Nvidia's own money may be funding purchases of its own chips. The Department of Justice is also checking whether Nvidia structured a license deal with AI startup Groq to avoid normal antitrust review.

Nvidia also expects a lower gross margin. It guided the next quarter to about 74%, down from 75%, and its finance chief said that the margin will be lowest, at 71% to 72%, in the quarter after that. For the gap to close, revenue growth must keep coming from many customers, not just financed ones. The new Vera Rubin chip platform must also keep shipping widely.

The Groq inquiry must end without a forced change to the deal, and gross margin must stop falling. The next test is Nvidia's fiscal Q3 earnings call, expected in mid to late November 2026. A Justice Department decision could take longer, likely into 2027. If demand and margins hold up over the next two to three quarters, the gap can close.

1. Nov 18, 2026 · est.Pending

   Fiscal Q3 2027 results: gross margin and customer breadthGross margin near the 74% guidance and data center growth from many customers pass; a margin below guidance or growth that depends on financed buyers fails.
2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending

   Fiscal Q4 2027 results: margin floor and Vera Rubin rampGross margin that holds at or above the 71% to 72% guidance while Vera Rubin ships widely passes; a further margin cut or a slow Rubin ramp fails.
3. Q2 2027 · est.Pending

   Hugging Face purchase closes after regulatory reviewA close in the first half of 2027 on the agreed terms passes; a block or a long delay by regulators fails.
4. 2027 · est.Pending

   Justice Department decision on the Groq license dealAn inquiry that ends with no forced change to the Groq deal passes; a lawsuit or an order to undo the deal fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Nvidia holds much more cash than debt, but the balance sheet does not show its largest calls on cash. These are $279 billion of supply and capacity commitments and $47.9 billion of stakes in private companies. Read more

• Nvidia first planned to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, to help fund OpenAI's purchase of Nvidia chips for a 10-gigawatt data center buildout. In February 2026, Nvidia invested $30 billion in OpenAI's funding round. Nvidia also guarantees up to $105 billion of lease and power payments for an OpenAI data center campus in Ohio. This kind of vendor financing ties Nvidia's future revenue to the financial health of one customer. It makes some reported demand harder to separate from organic demand.
• Google, Amazon, and Microsoft each build their own AI chips. The research company TrendForce expects shipments of these custom chips to grow 44.6% in 2026, faster than the 16.1% it expects for GPUs. If this continues, custom chips will do a growing share of AI work that now runs on Nvidia GPUs.
• Nvidia expects a lower gross margin: about 74% in Q3 fiscal 2027 and 71% to 72% in Q4, down from 75% in Q2. The finance chief said that higher memory prices cause this. Costs that increase faster than prices can decrease profit, although revenue continues to grow fast.
• Nvidia's near-term outlook excludes China data center revenue, after a year of shifting US export rules for its chips. In September 2026, press reports said that the Department of Justice is checking whether Nvidia structured its $20 billion license deal with AI startup Groq to avoid normal antitrust review. Both issues add regulatory uncertainty to Nvidia's growth path.

• October 2, 2026The Financial Times reported that Amazon is in talks to move about $8 billion of Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips into a separate company that borrows money, and to lease the chips back. These are talks only, and neither company made a comment.
• September 28, 2026Nvidia raised its share repurchase authorization by $150 billion. The total remaining authorization is now $235 billion, to be used through fiscal 2028.
• September 9, 2026The New York Times reported that the US Department of Justice is looking into whether Nvidia structured its license deal with AI chip startup Groq to avoid antitrust review. Reports put the deal at about $17 billion to $20 billion. The deal gave Nvidia a non-exclusive license to Groq's chip technology, and Nvidia hired Groq staff, including founder Jonathan Ross. The Department of Justice did not confirm the inquiry.