- Price
- $264.21 → $287.01(+8.6%)
- Discount
- 11.9% → 4.3%(−7.6 pts)
- Thesis
- The market still prices Marvell's custom chip business as unpredictable and unproven. Revenue depends on a small number of big customer programs starting up. Growth in this business has swung sharply before, which makes investors cautious about counting on the pace management now guides. For the gap to close, Marvell's newest programs, expanded with a major cloud customer, must ramp up on schedule from fiscal 2029 onward. Marvell's new 2-nanometer optical interconnect products, shown at an industry conference in September 2026, must also convert into real design wins, not just investor excitement. Custom silicon revenue must keep more than doubling each year, as management has guided for fiscal 2028 and fiscal 2029. The next checkpoint is Marvell'sAt its Investor Day on October 6, 2026, management raised its targets. Management is expectedIt now guides fiscal 2028 revenue to lay out thisabout $20 billion and fiscal 2029 custom-silicon roadmap in revenue to more detail therethan $12 billion. It also set a path to $70 billion to $90 billion of revenue in fiscal 2031. These are targets, not results. The next checkpoint is the Q3 fiscal 2027 report, expected near November 27, 2026. If these programs ramp up as planned over the next three to five quarters, Marvell's growth can catch up to faster-growing peers, and the gap can close. If a large customer moves work in-house or to a rival like Broadcom, the gap could persist.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 6, 2026: Investor Day: custom silicon roadmap. PendingPassed. Watch: Clear multi-year custom revenue targets with named program ramps pass; vague targets or a lower fiscal 2028 outlook fail. Outcome: Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion and its fiscal 2029 custom revenue outlook to more than $12 billion.
Nov 27, 2026 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2027 results against $3.15 billion guidance. Pending. Watch: Revenue at or above $3.15 billion and a held fiscal 2027 outlook of about $12 billion pass; a miss or a lower outlook fails.
Mar 2027 (estimate): Q4 fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 outlook. Pending. Watch: A confirmed fiscal 2028 revenue outlook of about $1820 billion with custom revenue more than doubling passes; a cut or a lost program fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-06: At its Investor Day, Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion, from about $18 billion. It raised its fiscal 2029 custom chip revenue outlook to more than $12 billion, from more than $10 billion. Management also set a path to $70 billion to $90 billion of annual revenue by fiscal 2031.
2026-09-22: At the ECOC 2026 optical-networking conference in Spain, Marvell showed new 2-nanometer optical interconnect products. These include 800G and 1.6T pluggable parts and a large co-packaged optics platform built for AI data centers. The stock rose as much as 6% on the news.
2026-09-17: Marvell and GlobalFoundries expanded their multi-year deal for silicon germanium chip capacity at GlobalFoundries' Vermont plant. Marvell will use it for optical products such as pluggable optics and co-packaged optics.
2026-08-27: Marvell reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue reached a company record of $2.74 billion. Management raised the fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to about $12 billion, and the fiscal 2028 outlook to about $18 billion.
2026-08-27: Marvell expanded its custom chip agreement with a major cloud customer to include more programs, with revenue expected from fiscal 2029 onward.