- Price
- $317.84 → $275.79(−13.2%)
- Discount
- 26.1% → 35.9%(+9.8 pts)
- Thesis
- In 2026, Intuit became one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500. Investors fear that free AI chatbots can soon dotools will let simple tax returns and basic budgeting for free, which would hurt TurboTax's price-sensitive filers andskip TurboTax. They also fear AI chat tools will take over Credit Karma's loan-matching business. Intuit has responded by signing multi-year partnerships of matching users with both OpenAIloans and Anthropic, building their AI models into its own products instead of only competing against themcards. Despite the AIThis fear deepened in May 2026, when Intuit's core segments kept growing at double cut its TurboTax revenue guidance. Intuit said it lost price-digit rates through fiscal 2026, including Credit Karmasensitive filers and cut 17% of its small business toolsworkforce. IfA securities class action followed, adding legal cost and extra negative attention on top of the growth worry. The gap can close if Intuit's own AI agents, built with OpenAI and Anthropic, keep customers filing and banking inside its apps, rather than switching instead of moving to outside AI tools. Fiscal 2026 results published in August 2026 showed Intuit topped $20 billion in revenue, with its newer "Big Bets" products growing 34%. At its September 17, 2026 investor day, Intuit reiterated 9-10% revenue growth for fiscal 2027. The real test is the next tax season, which runs from January to April 2027. TurboTax must show it kept its price-sensitive filers this time. Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings on December 1, 2026 give the first read before that season starts. If TurboTax holds share through tax season 2027 and Credit Karma keeps growing, the AI-disruption fear may prove overstateddiscount should start to close over the next two to four quarters.
- Risks
- AI-native tools may let simple tax filers complete a return without paying for TurboTax. Management already lowered its own TurboTax growth outlook, because of price-sensitive customers testing free alternatives.
OpenAI added a personal finance feature inside ChatGPT that matches users with financial products. This sits close to Credit Karma's core business of matching users with loans and credit cards, Intuit's fastest-growing segment.
A securities class action alleges Intuit made misleading statements about TurboTax's price position among do-it-yourself filers before the May 2026 guidance cut. The case moved past its lead-plaintiff deadline in September 2026 and is headed toward litigation, which adds legal cost and headline risk on top of the AI-disruption worry.
Intuit is cutting about 3,000 jobs, 17% of its workforce, while trying to launch new AI agent products at the same time. A restructuring this large carries execution risk that could slow product delivery or hurt customer service during the transition.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-17: At its annual Investor Day, Intuit reiterated fiscal 2027 guidance: total revenue of $23.28-$23.51 billion (9-10% growth) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $22.88-$23.12 (23-24% growth).
2026-09-08: The lead-plaintiff deadline passed in the securities class action against Intuit over its TurboTax pricing disclosures, moving the case toward active litigation.
2026-08-25: Intuit reported Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 results. Full-year revenue passed $20 billion, and its newer 'Big Bets' products grew 34% combined. Intuit also set fiscal 2027 guidance of 9-10% total revenue growth.
2026-06-02: Following the May 2026 stock decline, law firms opened a securities fraud investigation into Intuit over its statements about TurboTax pricing ahead of and during the 2026 tax season.
2026-05-20: Intuit reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $8.56 billion, up 10.5%. The company also announced it would cut about 3,000 jobs, 17% of its workforce, to refocus spending on AI.
2026-02-24: Intuit announced a multi-year partnership with Anthropic, to build Claude-based AI agents into TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp.