- Price
- $157.50
- Fair value
- $182.00
- Discount
- 13.5%
- Uncertainty
- Low
- LSEG rating
- 1.81
- Moat
- Wide
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Intercontinental Exchange
- Sector
- Financial exchanges & mortgage technology
- About
- Intercontinental Exchange runs financial exchanges, data services, and mortgage software. It owns the New York Stock Exchange, and other futures and commodity exchanges. It also owns ICE Mortgage Technology, which sells software that banks and lenders use to process home loans. ICE makes money from trading fees, market data subscriptions, and software fees.
- Thesis
- ICE's mortgage technology segment struggled for two years after mortgage rates rose and home loan volumes fell. Some investors still treat this segment as weak, especially after ICE paid billions of dollars for Black Knight in 2023. But mortgage rates have eased, and origination and refinance volumes have climbed to their highest levels since 2022. ICE also earns steady, growing recurring revenue from its exchange and data businesses. This cushions the swings in mortgage volumes, and gives the stock room to re-rate if the housing recovery continues.
- Risks
- Mortgage technology segment revenue depends on US mortgage origination volume, which moves with interest rates ICE does not control. A new rise in mortgage rates could slow the segment's recovery.
ICE is still integrating Black Knight, bought in 2023, while it also works to close and integrate the $5.7 billion purchase of MarketAxess announced in 2026. Running two large integrations at once raises execution risk and adds debt.
Exchange trading revenue depends on trading volume and market volatility, which change from quarter to quarter. A calm market with lower volume could reduce this revenue.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-10: ICE's own Mortgage Monitor report showed mortgage holder equity reached a record $18 trillion, and annual home price growth reached a 14-month high in July 2026.
2026-07-30: ICE reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue was $2.7 billion, up 5% from a year earlier. ICE also announced a deal to buy MarketAxess Holdings for $5.7 billion in cash.