- Price
- $2.56
- Fair value
- $1.61
- Fair value source
- AI estimate
- Discount
- -59.0%
- Uncertainty
- Very High
- Uncertainty source
- AI estimate
- LSEG rating
- 1.75
- Moat
- None
- Moat source
- AI estimate
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-12
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Denison Mines
- Sector
- Uranium mining & development
- About
- Denison Mines is a Canadian uranium company. It explores for uranium and develops mines in the Athabasca Basin in northern Saskatchewan. Its main asset is an effective 95% interest in the Wheeler River project, which has two high-grade deposits, Phoenix and Gryphon. Denison builds the Phoenix mine now. Phoenix will use in-situ recovery: wells pump a solution into the ore, the solution dissolves the uranium, and other wells bring it to the surface. A frozen wall around the ore keeps the solution in place. Denison also owns 22.5% of the McClean Lake mine and mill, interests in other deposits near the mill, and exploration land of about 457,000 hectares. It holds physical uranium and sells it to pay for construction. Denison reports in Canadian dollars. Its shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange (DML) and on NYSE American (DNN).
- Thesis
- The market prices Denison above the AI estimate, because it pays for a scarce new source of uranium in a stable country and expects a higher long-term uranium price than the base case of the Phoenix feasibility study. Few new large mines can start production before 2030, and the long-term uranium price was US$96.50 per pound at September 30, 2026. The market also pays for Gryphon and the exploration land, which have no permits or no feasibility study yet. The AI estimate is lower because Phoenix does not produce until mid-2028, and it is the first in-situ recovery mine in the Athabasca Basin, so construction can be late or cost more than the C$600 million control budget. Its reserves also last only about 10 years. For the price to hold, the freeze wall, the process plant and the wellfield must stay on schedule for first production in mid-2028, and the cost must stay inside the control budget. The long-term uranium price must stay near US$100 per pound or higher. Denison must also pay for the rest of the construction with cash, uranium sales and the money from its convertible notes, without a large sale of new shares under its US$700 million shelf prospectus. The evidence arrives with the Q3 2026 results in about November 2026, the first-year construction milestones near March 2027, and first production in mid-2028. If these tests pass and the uranium price rises, the value can move up to the price over about two years. If construction slips or the uranium price falls, the price can fall toward the AI estimate.
- Valuation
- The fair value, the moat and the uncertainty on this page for Denison Mines are an AI estimate from October 8, 2026. The fair value is in US dollars. They are not an analyst's values. An AI research agent calculated them from Denison's filings with a net asset value method in Canadian dollars, in three cases. The main input is the after-tax net present value at 8% (NPV8) of Phoenix on a 100% basis, from the capital cost update of January 2, 2026. That update gives C$1.57 billion at the base-case price of the 2023 feasibility study (US$68.89 to US$78.36 per pound), C$1.94 billion at US$86 and C$2.35 billion at US$100, at 1.35 Canadian dollars per US dollar. The low case uses the base-case price. The middle case uses the long-term price of US$96.50 at September 30, 2026, from Cameco's table of industry prices, and gives about C$2.25 billion on a straight line between the published values. The high case uses US$120 and gives about C$2.92 billion on a straight line between US$100 and US$150 (C$3.78 billion). The straight lines, the case prices and the weights of 25%, 50% and 25% are assumptions. The estimate takes Denison's 95% share and multiplies it by 0.85 for the risk of delays and higher costs before first production. This factor is an assumption. It adds 25% of Denison's share of the Gryphon NPV8 of C$821.0 million from the 2023 study, because Gryphon has no permits and only a pre-feasibility study. It also adds C$150 million for McClean Lake, the other deposits and the exploration land. Both values are assumptions. From the balance sheet at June 30, 2026, it adds cash of C$465.3 million, uranium investments of C$114.4 million, uranium inventory of C$16.5 million and other investments of C$49.4 million. It adds back C$55.4 million of Phoenix construction spending in the first half of 2026, because the NPV already counts that spending. It takes away the convertible notes at their face value of US$345 million (C$489.8 million) and reclamation obligations of C$37.6 million. It also takes away C$240.7 million for 12 years of corporate costs of C$31.9 million each year, the 2026 outlook, discounted at 8%. The 12 years are an assumption. The result is about C$2.10 billion, or about C$2.28 per share on 920,225,396 fully diluted shares at August 12, 2026. At 1.42 Canadian dollars per US dollar, an assumption near the rate of October 7, 2026, this is about US$1.61 per share. The low case gives about US$1.19 and the high case about US$2.03 per share. The estimate does not move the NPV forward from February 2026, and it does not count the capped call options. The value changes much with the uranium price, and the mine does not produce until mid-2028, so the uncertainty is Very High. The moat rating is None. Phoenix has very high grades, and the 2023 study with the 2026 cost update gives an all-in cost of US$18.41 per pound, which can put Phoenix among the lowest-cost uranium mines in the world. This can become a cost advantage, but Phoenix does not produce yet, so the advantage is not proven. The reserves of 56.7 million pounds last about 10 years, and production falls to about 3.0 million pounds per year after the first 5 years. Uranium is a commodity, so customers have no switching costs, and there are no network effects. The estimate does not find clear evidence of returns above the cost of capital that last 10 years or more.
As of 2026-10-08.
- Risks
- Phoenix is the first in-situ recovery mine in the Athabasca Basin, and it needs a freeze wall around high-grade ore. Construction can be late or cost more than the C$600 million control budget, which includes C$65 million of contingency and owner's reserves.
The value depends on the uranium price. Denison's own sensitivity gives an after-tax net present value for Phoenix from C$1.57 billion at the base-case price to C$3.78 billion at US$150 per pound.
Denison does not make money from operations before Phoenix produces. It can sell new shares under its US$700 million shelf prospectus, and a large sale at a low price reduces the value of each share.
The wells can recover less uranium than the study expects. The reserves assume that the wells recover 80.6% of the uranium in the resource.
Phoenix is one asset with a short life. The reserves last about 10 years, and production falls from about 8.4 million pounds per year in the first 5 years to about 3.0 million pounds per year after.
Denison must repay the US$345 million convertible notes in cash in September 2031 if holders do not convert them.
Gryphon has no permits, and it needs a toll milling agreement with the McClean Lake mill that does not exist yet.
Indigenous communities or other groups can go to court about the project. Peter Ballantyne Cree Nation withdrew its challenge in July 2026, but other challenges are possible.
- Balance sheet
- Denison pays for the Phoenix construction with cash, sales of its physical uranium and the money from its convertible notes. At June 30, 2026, cash was C$465.3 million. Uranium investments of 950,000 pounds had a value of C$114.4 million, and Denison also had 145,926 pounds of uranium in inventory. Working capital was C$521.4 million. The main debt is US$345 million of 4.25% convertible senior unsecured notes due September 15, 2031. Their face value was C$489.8 million at June 30, 2026, and their carrying value with the conversion feature was C$687.3 million. The conversion price is about US$2.92 per share, and capped call options raise the effective conversion price to US$4.32. Denison can pay a conversion in shares, cash or both, but it must repay in cash the notes that holders do not convert. A Bank of Nova Scotia facility gives letters of credit of up to C$28.5 million until January 31, 2027, and surety bonds of C$36.8 million cover reclamation. The 2026 outlook is spending of C$387.3 million, with C$305.2 million for Phoenix construction. Denison spent C$114.5 million of this in the first half of 2026. The Phoenix control budget is C$600 million, and the joint venture had commitments of C$229.0 million at June 30, 2026. Denison committed 600,000 pounds of uranium for delivery from Q3 2026 to Q2 2027, with a fixed price on 350,000 pounds for US$33.3 million. On September 11, 2026, it filed a base shelf prospectus for up to US$700 million of securities. The filings do not give a credit rating. Cash and uranium cover most of the remaining construction cost, but Denison can need more money before first production in mid-2028.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 12, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: construction progress and spending. Pending. Watch: Phoenix on schedule for first production in mid-2028 with costs inside the C$600 million control budget passes; a delay or a higher cost estimate fails.
Mar 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: first-year construction milestones. Pending. Watch: The process plant and substation foundations, the freeze wall installation, the airstrip and the site power done on time passes; a slip that moves first production past mid-2028 fails.
2027 (estimate): Construction funding without a large share sale. Pending. Watch: Cash, uranium sales and the note money pay for construction, with no or only small share sales under the shelf prospectus, passes; a large share sale at a low price fails.
2028 (estimate): First production from Phoenix (target mid-2028). Pending. Watch: First uranium from Phoenix by mid-2028 and a ramp-up to the planned rates passes; a delay into 2029 or low recovery from the wells fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-30: Cameco's table of industry prices showed a uranium spot price of US$89.63 per pound and a long-term price of US$96.50 per pound at the end of September 2026.
2026-09-11: Denison filed a base shelf prospectus. It can sell up to US$700 million of shares, debt or other securities over 25 months, also through sales of shares at market prices. The shares closed at US$3.23 on NYSE American on September 10, 2026.
2026-08-12: Denison reported Q2 2026 results. It sold 750,000 pounds of its physical uranium at an average of US$89.17 per pound, for C$91.6 million. Net income was C$25.6 million, mainly from a non-cash gain on the value of the conversion feature of its convertible notes. By the end of July 2026, more than 20% of the Phoenix site civil work was complete.
2026-08-12: Denison committed 600,000 pounds of uranium for delivery from Q3 2026 to Q2 2027. The price is fixed for 350,000 pounds at an average of US$95.17 per pound. About 500,000 pounds of its holdings are not committed.
2026-07-28: Denison completed the site preparation at Phoenix and started full-scale construction. It started to install the freeze wall for Phase 1 of the mine.
2026-07-02: Peter Ballantyne Cree Nation withdrew its court challenge to the provincial environmental approval for Phoenix. It also gave its formal consent to and support for the Wheeler River project.
2026-05-12: Denison reported Q1 2026 results. It said that its uranium sales book has contracts for nearly 8 million pounds, and that it is in advanced talks for 8 million pounds more. Flooding in northern Saskatchewan affected part of the road network, and Denison said that this can slow the transport of heavy equipment to the site.
2026-02-24: The board of Denison made the final investment decision to build Phoenix. Site preparation started in March 2026, and first production is planned for mid-2028.
2026-02-19: The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission approved the environmental assessment for Phoenix and issued the licence to prepare the site and build the mine and mill. This was the last approval necessary to start construction.
2026-01-08: SaskPower completed a new 138 kV transmission line, so grid power is available at the Phoenix site.
2026-01-02: Denison raised its estimate of the Phoenix initial capital cost to C$600 million, 20% more than the 2023 feasibility study after inflation. It said that the after-tax net present value at 8% stays at about C$1.57 billion at the base-case uranium price, because uranium prices are higher.
2025-08-15: Denison sold US$345 million of 4.25% convertible senior unsecured notes due 2031, with a conversion price of about US$2.92 per share. It also bought capped call options that raise the effective conversion price to US$4.32.