Denison Mines

Denison Mines is a Canadian uranium company. It explores for uranium and develops mines in the Athabasca Basin in northern Saskatchewan. Its main asset is an effective 95% interest in the Wheeler River project, which has two high-grade deposits, Phoenix and Gryphon. Denison builds the Phoenix mine now.

Phoenix will use in-situ recovery: wells pump a solution into the ore, the solution dissolves the uranium, and other wells bring it to the surface. A frozen wall around the ore keeps the solution in place. Denison also owns 22.5% of the McClean Lake mine and mill, interests in other deposits near the mill, and exploration land of about 457,000 hectares. It holds physical uranium and sells it to pay for construction.

Denison reports in Canadian dollars. Its shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange (DML) and on NYSE American (DNN).

The market prices Denison above the AI estimate, because it pays for a scarce new source of uranium in a stable country and expects a higher long-term uranium price than the base case of the Phoenix feasibility study. Few new large mines can start production before 2030, and the long-term uranium price was US$96.50 per pound at September 30, 2026. The market also pays for Gryphon and the exploration land, which have no permits or no feasibility study yet. The AI estimate is lower because Phoenix does not produce until mid-2028, and it is the first in-situ recovery mine in the Athabasca Basin, so construction can be late or cost more than the C$600 million control budget.

Its reserves also last only about 10 years. For the price to hold, the freeze wall, the process plant and the wellfield must stay on schedule for first production in mid-2028, and the cost must stay inside the control budget. The long-term uranium price must stay near US$100 per pound or higher. Denison must also pay for the rest of the construction with cash, uranium sales and the money from its convertible notes, without a large sale of new shares under its US$700 million shelf prospectus.

The evidence arrives with the Q3 2026 results in about November 2026, the first-year construction milestones near March 2027, and first production in mid-2028. If these tests pass and the uranium price rises, the value can move up to the price over about two years. If construction slips or the uranium price falls, the price can fall toward the AI estimate.

The fair value, the moat and the uncertainty on this page for Denison Mines are an AI estimate from October 8, 2026. The fair value is in US dollars. Read more

1. Nov 5, 2026 · est.Pending

   Q3 2026 results: construction progress and spendingPhoenix on schedule for first production in mid-2028 with costs inside the C$600 million control budget passes; a delay or a higher cost estimate fails.
2. Mar 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results: first-year construction milestonesThe process plant and substation foundations, the freeze wall installation, the airstrip and the site power done on time passes; a slip that moves first production past mid-2028 fails.
3. 2027 · est.Pending

   Construction funding without a large share saleCash, uranium sales and the note money pay for construction, with no or only small share sales under the shelf prospectus, passes; a large share sale at a low price fails.
4. 2028 · est.Pending

   First production from Phoenix (target mid-2028)First uranium from Phoenix by mid-2028 and a ramp-up to the planned rates passes; a delay into 2029 or low recovery from the wells fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Denison pays for the Phoenix construction with cash, sales of its physical uranium and the money from its convertible notes. Cash and uranium cover most of the remaining construction cost, but Denison can need more money before first production in mid-2028. Read more

• Phoenix is the first in-situ recovery mine in the Athabasca Basin, and it needs a freeze wall around high-grade ore. Construction can be late or cost more than the C$600 million control budget, which includes C$65 million of contingency and owner's reserves.
• The value depends on the uranium price. Denison's own sensitivity gives an after-tax net present value for Phoenix from C$1.57 billion at the base-case price to C$3.78 billion at US$150 per pound.
• Denison does not make money from operations before Phoenix produces. It can sell new shares under its US$700 million shelf prospectus, and a large sale at a low price reduces the value of each share.
• The wells can recover less uranium than the study expects. The reserves assume that the wells recover 80.6% of the uranium in the resource.
• Phoenix is one asset with a short life. The reserves last about 10 years, and production falls from about 8.4 million pounds per year in the first 5 years to about 3.0 million pounds per year after.
• Denison must repay the US$345 million convertible notes in cash in September 2031 if holders do not convert them.
• Gryphon has no permits, and it needs a toll milling agreement with the McClean Lake mill that does not exist yet.
• Indigenous communities or other groups can go to court about the project. Peter Ballantyne Cree Nation withdrew its challenge in July 2026, but other challenges are possible.

• September 30, 2026Cameco's table of industry prices showed a uranium spot price of US$89.63 per pound and a long-term price of US$96.50 per pound at the end of September 2026.
• September 11, 2026Denison filed a base shelf prospectus. It can sell up to US$700 million of shares, debt or other securities over 25 months, also through sales of shares at market prices. The shares closed at US$3.23 on NYSE American on September 10, 2026.
• August 12, 2026Denison reported Q2 2026 results. It sold 750,000 pounds of its physical uranium at an average of US$89.17 per pound, for C$91.6 million. Net income was C$25.6 million, mainly from a non-cash gain on the value of the conversion feature of its convertible notes. By the end of July 2026, more than 20% of the Phoenix site civil work was complete.