- Price
- $92.36
- Fair value
- $110.00
- Discount
- 16.0%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 1.86
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- CVS Health
- Sector
- Health care services & pharmacy
- About
- CVS Health has three segments. Health Care Benefits runs Aetna, which sells medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans, including government plans. Health Services runs the CVS Caremark pharmacy benefit manager and health care delivery services. Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness runs CVS Pharmacy retail stores and infusion services. Total revenues were $106.1 billion in Q2 2026, and Aetna had 26.0 million medical members at June 30, 2026. CVS left the individual exchange business in 2026. David Joyner is Chairman and CEO.
- Thesis
- The market prices CVS for the risk that medical costs and pressure on pharmacy benefits cut its profits again. In Q2 2025, Aetna recorded a $471 million premium deficiency reserve for Group Medicare Advantage, and CVS still warns of elevated cost trends. Caremark keeps giving price improvements to clients, and CVS has an accrual of about $3.4 billion for opioid litigation. In 2026 the recovery plan is working: the medical benefit ratio fell to 87.4% in Q2 2026 from 89.9%, and CVS raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.90 to $8.10. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Aetna's margins must keep recovering in 2027, which depends on Medicare Advantage rates and medical cost trends. Caremark must keep its profit as client pricing improves. Debt must keep falling from $61.4 billion at June 30, 2026. The Q3 2026 report on November 4, 2026 and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 are the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a new rise in medical costs, which CVS cannot fully price for in the short term.
- Risks
- Aetna's profit depends on medical costs staying within what it priced. CVS warns of continued elevated cost trends. A new rise in costs, as in 2025, lowers earnings quickly.
Caremark keeps giving pricing improvements to clients, and laws or rules on pharmacy benefit managers can change how they earn money. These changes can lower Health Services profit.
CVS had a remaining accrual of about $3.4 billion for opioid litigation at June 30, 2026. Some states and private plaintiffs are not part of the settlement, and the final cost may be higher.
Total debt was $61.4 billion at June 30, 2026. Large debt limits buybacks and investment until it falls further.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $11.3B
Debt: $61.4B
Net debt: $50.1B
Interest cover: 6.1×
Debt due within 12 months: $2.0B
CVS funds itself mainly with long-term senior notes. At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $59.45 billion and the current portion was $1.96 billion, for total debt of $61.41 billion, down from $64.57 billion at December 31, 2025. Cash and cash equivalents were $11.33 billion, up from $8.45 billion. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first half of 2026. The remaining accrual for opioid litigation was about $3.4 billion at June 30, 2026. CVS raised its 2026 guidance for cash flow from operations in its Q2 2026 report.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: medical costs. Pending. Watch: A stable medical benefit ratio and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance kept or raised pass; a higher medical benefit ratio or a guidance cut fail.
Q1 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for higher adjusted EPS and continued Aetna margin recovery pass; guidance for lower earnings fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-17: CVS said that Larry Robbins resigned from its board on August 13, 2026, with no disagreement with the company. The board appointed Teresa Heitsenrether, Chief Data & Analytics Officer of JPMorgan Chase, as a director effective November 18, 2026.
2026-08-05: CVS reported Q2 2026 results. Total revenues rose 7.3% to $106.1 billion, and adjusted EPS rose to $2.58 from $1.81. The Aetna medical benefit ratio fell to 87.4% from 89.9%. CVS raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.90 to $8.10 and its cash flow from operations guidance.
2026-05-06: CVS reported Q1 2026 results. Total revenues were $100.4 billion, and adjusted EPS was $2.57, up from $2.25. It raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.30 to $7.50.