Skip to content

CVSHealth care services & pharmacy

CVS Health

No moatHigh uncertainty

Updated

Price
$92.36
Fair value
fair value $110.00
Discount
16.0% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 1.86 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Nov 4 ·

Loading your notes…

In short

Thesis
The market fears that medical costs and pressure on pharmacy benefits will cut CVS's profits again, and steady Aetna margins with lower debt over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q3 2026 report and the 2027 guidance show whether Aetna's margin recovery continues.
Next test
: Q3 2026 earnings: medical costs

About

CVS Health has three segments. Health Care Benefits runs Aetna, which sells medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans, including government plans. Health Services runs the CVS Caremark pharmacy benefit manager and health care delivery services. Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness runs CVS Pharmacy retail stores and infusion services.

Total revenues were $106.1 billion in Q2 2026, and Aetna had 26.0 million medical members at June 30, 2026. CVS left the individual exchange business in 2026. David Joyner is Chairman and CEO.

Thesis

The market prices CVS for the risk that medical costs and pressure on pharmacy benefits cut its profits again. In Q2 2025, Aetna recorded a $471 million premium deficiency reserve for Group Medicare Advantage, and CVS still warns of elevated cost trends. Caremark keeps giving price improvements to clients, and CVS has an accrual of about $3.4 billion for opioid litigation. In 2026 the recovery plan is working: the medical benefit ratio fell to 87.4% in Q2 2026 from 89.9%, and CVS raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.90 to $8.10.

For the gap to close, three things must be true. Aetna's margins must keep recovering in 2027, which depends on Medicare Advantage rates and medical cost trends. Caremark must keep its profit as client pricing improves. Debt must keep falling from $61.4 billion at June 30, 2026.

The Q3 2026 report on November 4, 2026 and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 are the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a new rise in medical costs, which CVS cannot fully price for in the short term.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 4, 2026Pending
    Q3 2026 earnings: medical costsA stable medical benefit ratio and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance kept or raised pass; a higher medical benefit ratio or a guidance cut fail.
  2. Q1 2027 · est.Pending
    2027 guidance2027 guidance for higher adjusted EPS and continued Aetna margin recovery pass; guidance for lower earnings fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$11.3B
Debt
$61.4B
Net debt
$50.1B
Interest cover
6.1×
times profit pays interest

Cash against debt

Cash$11.3B
Debt$61.4B

debt covered by cashnet debt $50.1B

When the debt is due

12 months$2.0B
Later$59.5B

CVS funds itself mainly with long-term senior notes. At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $59.45 billion and the current portion was $1.96 billion, for total debt of $61.41 billion, down from $64.57 billion at December 31, 2025.

Risks

  • Aetna's profit depends on medical costs staying within what it priced. CVS warns of continued elevated cost trends. A new rise in costs, as in 2025, lowers earnings quickly.
  • Caremark keeps giving pricing improvements to clients, and laws or rules on pharmacy benefit managers can change how they earn money. These changes can lower Health Services profit.
  • CVS had a remaining accrual of about $3.4 billion for opioid litigation at June 30, 2026. Some states and private plaintiffs are not part of the settlement, and the final cost may be higher.
  • Total debt was $61.4 billion at June 30, 2026. Large debt limits buybacks and investment until it falls further.

Recent events

  • August 17, 2026CVS said that Larry Robbins resigned from its board on August 13, 2026, with no disagreement with the company. The board appointed Teresa Heitsenrether, Chief Data & Analytics Officer of JPMorgan Chase, as a director effective November 18, 2026.
  • August 5, 2026CVS reported Q2 2026 results. Total revenues rose 7.3% to $106.1 billion, and adjusted EPS rose to $2.58 from $1.81. The Aetna medical benefit ratio fell to 87.4% from 89.9%. CVS raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.90 to $8.10 and its cash flow from operations guidance.
  • May 6, 2026CVS reported Q1 2026 results. Total revenues were $100.4 billion, and adjusted EPS was $2.57, up from $2.25. It raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.30 to $7.50.

Similar companies

  • NVONovo NordiskShares: Weight-loss drugs, Regulation and courts
    Discount
    5.8%
    LSEG
    2.85
    Gap
    Can close
  • RHHBYRocheShares: Regulation and courts, Weight-loss drugs
    Discount
    5.1%
    LSEG
    2.14
    Gap
    Can close
  • PODDInsuletShares: Regulation and courts, Weight-loss drugs
    Discount
    35.5%
    LSEG
    2.19
    Gap
    Can close
  • PFEPfizerShares: Regulation and courts, Weight-loss drugs
    Discount
    7.6%
    LSEG
    2.67
    Gap
    Slow
  • CIThe Cigna GroupShares: Regulation and courts
    Discount
    14.6%
    LSEG
    2.07
    Gap
    Can close

Read it all? Star CVS or pass, then go on to the next one.