Roche

Roche is a Swiss healthcare company based in Basel, with two divisions. The Pharmaceuticals Division, which includes Genentech in the US and a majority stake in Chugai in Japan, makes medicines for cancer, multiple sclerosis, hemophilia, eye diseases, allergy and other conditions. Its largest growth drivers are Xolair, Hemlibra, Ocrevus, Phesgo and Vabysmo. The Diagnostics Division sells instruments and tests to laboratories and hospitals, and it earns most of its revenue from the tests that run on those instruments.

In the first half of 2026, Pharmaceuticals gave CHF 23.6 billion and Diagnostics CHF 6.7 billion of sales. Roche makes money from patent-protected medicines and from recurring diagnostics sales, and it spends about a fifth of sales on research. Roche reports in Swiss francs.

The market prices Roche below the analysts' value because of three doubts. First, patents end on large medicines. At its Pharma Day on September 28, 2026, Roche showed a biosimilar gap of CHF 6.2 billion of sales from 2025 to 2030, mostly from Xolair and Actemra. Second, the strong Swiss franc cut reported growth: first-half 2026 sales grew 6% at constant exchange rates but fell 2% in francs, and Core EPS fell 2% in francs.

Third, much of the long-term value depends on new medicines in obesity and Alzheimer's disease, where results come only in 2027 and later. For the gap to close, the new medicines must replace the lost sales. The checks are clear. Sales must grow in the mid single digits at constant exchange rates in 2026, with Core EPS growth in the high single digits, as guided.

The FDA must approve giredestrant in early breast cancer by its date of November 30, 2026. Fenebrutinib must win approval in multiple sclerosis after the FDA accepted the filing under priority review in September 2026. Obesity drugs such as enicepatide must move into phase III with good data. The first evidence comes with the nine-month sales on October 22, 2026, then the giredestrant decision on November 30, 2026 and the full-year results in early 2027.

If these checks pass, the gap can close within the next four quarters. A weak launch, a failed trial or new US drug price rules would delay it.

1. Oct 22, 2026Pending

   Nine-month sales 2026: growth at constant ratesGroup sales growth in the mid single digits at constant rates and a confirmed 2026 outlook pass; slower growth or a lower outlook fails.
2. Nov 30, 2026Pending

   FDA decision on giredestrant in early breast cancerFDA approval by the November 30, 2026 date passes; a delay or a rejection fails.
3. Feb 2027 · est.Pending

   Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlookCore EPS growth in the high single digits at constant rates for 2026 and a 2027 outlook with growth despite biosimilars pass; a weaker outlook fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Roche funds itself with bonds and notes in US dollars, euros and Swiss francs, and with US commercial paper. Cash is cash and cash equivalents of CHF 5.4 billion plus marketable securities of CHF 4.3 billion at June 30, 2026. Read more

• Biosimilars will take sales from older medicines. Roche expects a gap of CHF 6.2 billion of sales from 2025 to 2030, mostly from Xolair and Actemra. Sales of products with expired patents fell 8% at constant rates in the first half of 2026.
• Much of the future growth depends on trials in new areas such as obesity, Alzheimer's disease and inflammatory bowel disease, with major results from 2027 to 2030. Roche stopped some compounds in 2026 and wrote down CHF 1.0 billion of intangible assets in the first half.
• US drug pricing policy and US tariffs can lower prices or raise costs. The US is Roche's largest market, and US tariffs already raised costs in Diagnostics in the first half of 2026.
• The strong Swiss franc lowers reported results. In the first half of 2026, currency effects cut reported sales growth by 8 percentage points. Pricing reforms in China also reduced Diagnostics sales in Asia-Pacific.

• October 1, 2026The New England Journal of Medicine published the phase III evERA results. Giredestrant with everolimus improved progression-free survival compared with standard endocrine therapy with everolimus in ER-positive advanced breast cancer.
• September 30, 2026The FDA accepted Roche's application for fenebrutinib in relapsing and primary progressive multiple sclerosis under priority review. It is the first BTK inhibitor with a filing accepted for both forms of the disease.
• September 28, 2026At its Pharma Day, Roche showed a biosimilar gap of CHF 6.2 billion of sales from 2025 to 2030, mostly from Xolair (CHF 3.1 billion) and Actemra (CHF 2.5 billion). It said that its on-market and new medicines will more than offset this loss and that it has no patent cliff ahead.