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CCACable & broadband

Cogeco Communications

No moatMedium uncertainty

Updated

Price
CA$51.74
Fair value
fair value CA$70.00
Discount
26.1% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.70 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Oct 28 ·

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In short

Thesis
The market prices Cogeco Communications for a shrinking American business, and slower American declines with growing free cash flow over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q4 fiscal 2026 report on October 28, 2026 and the next quarterly reports show whether the decline of the U.S. business slows.
Next test
: Q4 fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 guidance

About

Cogeco Communications provides internet, video, wireline phone and wireless services to about 1.6 million residential and business customers in Canada and in thirteen U.S. states. In Canada it uses the Cogeco and oxio brands. In the United States it uses the Breezeline brand and welo, a digital brand that now covers its Ohio footprint. It has two segments, Canadian telecommunications and American telecommunications.

In Q3 fiscal 2026, which ended on May 31, 2026, the Canadian segment had revenue of $376.7 million and the American segment had revenue of $320.0 million. Its fiscal year ends on August 31, and Cogeco Inc. is its parent company. All amounts are in Canadian dollars.

Thesis

The market prices Cogeco Communications for falling revenue in its U.S. business. In Q3 fiscal 2026, revenue of the American segment fell 10.1% and its adjusted EBITDA fell 10.0%. The company recorded non-cash impairment charges of $2.2 billion on the American segment because competition in the U.S. increased. In April 2026, it lowered its fiscal 2026 guidance to a revenue decrease of 2% to 4% and an adjusted EBITDA decrease of 1.5% to 3.5% at constant currency.

The Canadian business is more stable, and its adjusted EBITDA rose 3.9% in Q3. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The decline in U.S. revenue and adjusted EBITDA must slow, as management expects for Q4 fiscal 2026. Wireless sales must keep growing in both countries and lower internet churn.

Free cash flow must grow as the company lowers capital spending in fiscal 2027, so that net indebtedness of $4.44 billion falls. The Q4 fiscal 2026 report and the fiscal 2027 guidance on October 28, 2026 give the first test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is more competition in the U.S., which can keep the American segment shrinking.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 28, 2026Pending
    Q4 fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 guidanceA smaller decline in American revenue and adjusted EBITDA than in Q3 and fiscal 2027 guidance for higher free cash flow pass; a faster U.S. decline or a new impairment fail.
  2. Jan 2027 · est.Pending
    Q1 fiscal 2027 results: U.S. trendStable Canadian adjusted EBITDA and a further slowdown in the U.S. decline pass; a return to double-digit U.S. declines fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cogeco Communications funds itself with senior secured notes and bank debt. Net indebtedness was $4.44 billion at May 31, 2026, down from $4.55 billion at February 28, 2026, and cash was $77.3 million.

Risks

  • Revenue of the American segment fell 10.1% in Q3 fiscal 2026 because competition increased. The company recorded $2.2 billion of impairment charges on this segment. If U.S. losses do not slow, earnings and cash flow keep falling.
  • Net indebtedness was $4.44 billion at May 31, 2026. Lower adjusted EBITDA makes this debt larger compared with earnings and can limit dividends or investment.
  • Cogeco is a new and small wireless provider in both countries. Larger carriers sell internet and wireless together. If its wireless plans do not win enough customers, internet churn can rise.
  • The American segment earns U.S. dollars, and the company reports in Canadian dollars. A weaker U.S. dollar lowers reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

Recent events

  • August 6, 2026Cogeco Communications agreed to sell an additional $200 million of its 5.299% senior secured notes due February 16, 2033, at 103.966% of face value, for a yield of 4.565%. It will use the money to repay existing debt and for general purposes.
  • July 15, 2026Cogeco Communications reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results. Revenue fell 4.7% to $696.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA fell 3.0% to $351.5 million. Canadian adjusted EBITDA rose 3.9%, while American adjusted EBITDA fell 10.0%. Non-cash impairment charges of $2.2 billion on the American segment caused a net loss of $1.74 billion. Free cash flow rose 17.6% to $169.2 million, and the company kept its fiscal 2026 guidance.
  • June 1, 2026Cogeco Communications said that it expects to record a non-cash impairment charge in its American telecommunications segment in Q3 fiscal 2026.
Show 1 older event
  • April 9, 2026Cogeco Communications reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results and lowered its fiscal 2026 guidance. It now expects revenue to fall 2% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA to fall 1.5% to 3.5% at constant currency. It kept its guidance for free cash flow growth of 0% to 10%.

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