BlackRock

BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world, with $15.49 trillion of client assets at September 30, 2026. It manages index funds and ETFs (iShares), active funds, cash funds and private market funds for pension funds, insurers, governments, banks and individual savers. It earns most of its money from base fees, which are a percentage of the assets it manages, so its revenue moves with flows and with market prices. It also earns performance fees, and technology fees from Aladdin, the risk and portfolio software that other investment firms rent.

Since 2024, it bought Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), the data company Preqin and the private credit manager HPS Investment Partners. These deals add private markets, which pay higher fees than index funds. BlackRock targets more than $35 billion of revenue by the end of the decade, with more than 30% from private markets and technology.

The market prices BlackRock with a discount for two reasons. First, its fees are a percentage of asset prices, and investors fear that higher bond yields and the Federal Reserve rate increase of September 2026 will end the rise in stock and bond prices that lifted its revenue. Second, its growth plan depends on private credit through HPS, and private credit is under stress. Investors in the HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND) asked to sell 9.3% of their shares in the first quarter of 2026 and 13.3% in the second quarter, against a cap of 5% a quarter, and investors fear that loans to software companies lose value as AI changes that industry.

For the gap to close, three things must be true. Organic base fee growth must stay at or above the 5% target, as it did with 11% in the third quarter of 2026. Private market fund-raising must continue while HLEND requests keep falling toward the 5% cap. The as adjusted operating margin must stay near the 47.8% of the third quarter of 2026 if markets fall.

The next tests are the HLEND repurchase window for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the fourth quarter report, expected in mid-January 2027. If flows and private credit hold up, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main risk is a fall in markets, which cuts fees on all assets at the same time.

1. Q4 2026 · est.Due this quarter

   HLEND Q4 2026 repurchase requestsA pass is requests that fall again from 11.5% toward the 5% cap; a fail is requests that rise above 13.3% again.
2. Jan 14, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results: flows and organic fee growthA pass is organic base fee growth of 5% or more and positive private markets flows; a fail is net outflows or a fall in the as adjusted operating margin below 45%.
3. Q2 2027 · est.Pending

   Private markets fund-raising in 2027A pass is private markets inflows of at least $15 billion a quarter in the first half of 2027; a fail is a clear slowdown or outflows.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

BlackRock has little net debt. At June 30, 2026, all of its debt was senior unsecured notes, with maturities from 2027 to 2055. Read more

• Most revenue is a percentage of client assets. A fall in stock and bond prices cuts base fees on all products at the same time, while most costs stay. Bond yields rose in 2026 and the Federal Reserve raised its target rate in September 2026.
• Private credit is the center of the growth plan, and it is under stress. Requests to leave the HPS Corporate Lending Fund were above its 5% quarterly cap in each of the first three quarters of 2026. Lenders also have loans to software companies that AI can disrupt. Losses or more gated funds can slow fund-raising and hurt the brand.
• BlackRock must integrate GIP, Preqin and HPS. The contingent consideration for GIP and HPS moves with the share price, and it added a $564 million noncash charge to GAAP results in Q3 2026.
• Texas and other states sued BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard in 2024 under antitrust law over their climate policies for coal companies. A judge let most claims continue in August 2025. Vanguard settled in February 2026 for $29.5 million, and the case continues against BlackRock.
• Index fund and ETF fees fall each year because of competition from Vanguard and others. BlackRock needs more flows into higher-fee products to keep its revenue growth.

• October 14, 2026BlackRock reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $7.75 billion, up 19%. As adjusted diluted EPS was $15.93, up 38%, and the as adjusted operating margin was 47.8%. Net inflows were $205.5 billion, with $134.5 billion into iShares ETFs and $15.3 billion into private markets. Organic base fee growth was 11% annualized. BlackRock bought back $550 million of stock.
• October 14, 2026GAAP results for Q3 2026 include a $564 million noncash charge for the change in fair value of contingent consideration for the GIP and HPS purchases. This amount moves with the BlackRock share price, and BlackRock excludes it from as adjusted results.
• September 14, 2026Press reports said that repurchase requests at the HPS Corporate Lending Fund fell to about 11.5% of shares for the third quarter, from 13.3%. The fund repurchases 5% of shares, its standard quarterly limit.