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AMCRConsumer packaging

Amcor

Narrow moatMedium uncertainty

Updated

Price
$43.74
Fair value
fair value $60.00
Discount
27.1% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.21 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Nov 12 · · estimated

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In short

Thesis
The market doubts that the Berry combination will give growth and lower debt, and synergies with leverage of 3.5 to 3.6 times at the end of 2026 can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The leverage result at December 31, 2026, and the next quarterly reports show whether synergies and cash flow reduce the debt.
Next test
(estimate): Results for the quarter to September 30, 2026

About

Amcor makes packaging for food, drinks, health care, beauty and home care products. It makes flexible packaging, rigid plastic containers, cartons, closures and dispensing systems. It reports two main segments: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions. Amcor combined with Berry Global on April 30, 2025, which made net sales $23.5 billion in the year to June 30, 2026.

It has about 75,000 employees and about 400 sites in more than 40 countries. Amcor sells to large consumer goods and health care companies and passes most changes in resin and other raw material costs to its customers. Its shares trade on the NYSE and as CDIs on the ASX.

Thesis

The market doubts that the Berry combination will give Amcor growth and lower debt. Volumes are flat, raw material costs rose fast, and leverage is high. In FY2026, volumes and price/mix together reduced net sales by about 2%, and in Q4 volumes grew only about 0.5%. Free cash flow was $1.3 billion, less than the guidance of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion that Amcor gave on May 6, 2026.

Net debt was $12.9 billion at June 30, 2026. So investors price Amcor as a slow-growing packager with too much debt. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Berry synergies must continue on plan; they were about $100 million in Q4 FY2026 and about $240 million in FY2026.

Volumes must grow and price increases must cover the higher input costs. Leverage must reach 3.5 to 3.6 times at December 31, 2026, as guided, and fall further in 2027. Amcor must make progress on the sale or restructuring of non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales, of which about $500 million is done or in process. The first evidence comes with the report for the quarter to September 30, 2026, estimated for about November 12, 2026.

The report for the six-month transition period to December 31, 2026, in early 2027, shows the leverage result. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 12, 2026 · est.Pending
    Results for the quarter to September 30, 2026Positive volumes, synergies on plan and progress toward adjusted EPS of $1.80 to $1.90 for the transition period pass; falling volumes or a cut to the guidance fail.
  2. Feb 15, 2027 · est.Pending
    Transition period results: leverage at December 31, 2026Leverage of 3.5 to 3.6 times or lower and guidance for calendar 2027 with EPS growth pass; higher leverage fails.
  3. Jun 30, 2027 · est.Pending
    Non-core portfolio salesAgreements to sell or restructure most of the non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales pass; little progress fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$1.1B
Debt
$14.0B
Net debt
$12.9B
Net debt / EBITDA
3.5×
EBITDA $3.7B, last 12 months
Interest cover
3.1×
times profit pays interest

Cash against debt

Cash$1.1B
Debt$14.0B

debt covered by cashnet debt $12.9B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

When the debt is due

12 months$150M
Later$13.9B

Amcor funds itself with senior notes, commercial paper and bank loans. At June 30, 2026, debt was $14.01 billion: $135 million of short-term debt, $15 million of current long-term debt and $13.86 billion of long-term debt.

Risks

  • Debt is high after the Berry combination. Net debt was $12.9 billion at June 30, 2026, and net interest expense was $610 million in FY2026. Free cash flow of $1.3 billion was below the guidance of May 2026. If cash flow stays weak, leverage falls more slowly and a rating downgrade could raise costs.
  • Raw material costs rose fast in 2026, and the CEO called the input cost inflation unprecedented. Amcor passes most resin cost changes to customers, but with a delay. Price/mix reduced comparable net sales by about 1% in Q4 FY2026.
  • Volumes depend on consumer demand for packaged goods. In FY2026, volumes and price/mix together reduced net sales by about 2%. Weak consumer spending would slow growth.
  • Amcor reviews non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales for sale or restructuring. Only about $500 million is done or in process. The review can take time, cost money and distract management.

Recent events

  • September 29, 2026Amcor set its 2026 annual meeting of shareholders for November 11, 2026. Shareholders will vote on a new 2026 Omnibus Management Share Plan, among other items.
  • August 12, 2026Amcor reported FY2026 results. Net sales rose 57% to $23.5 billion, mainly because of Berry. Net income was $1,106 million, adjusted EBITDA was $3,673 million and adjusted EPS rose 13% to $4.02. Free cash flow was $1,303 million and net debt was $12,897 million. For the six months to December 31, 2026, Amcor guided adjusted EPS of $1.80 to $1.90 and leverage of 3.5 to 3.6 times. It raised the quarterly dividend to 65.0 cents per share.
  • August 11, 2026Amcor's board accepted the resignation of PwC Switzerland as auditor at the request of the audit committee and appointed PwC US, effective August 14, 2026.
Show 3 older events
  • June 15, 2026Amcor appointed Ryan Yost, formerly of Avery Dennison, as President of Global Flexible Packaging Solutions, and Kate Pearlman, formerly of Lowe's, as Senior Vice President for Investor Relations and Treasury.
  • May 6, 2026Amcor reported Q3 FY2026 results. Net sales rose 77% to $5,914 million, synergies were $77 million and adjusted EPS rose 6% to $0.96. Amcor cut its FY2026 free cash flow guidance to $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion and gave adjusted EPS guidance of $3.98 to $4.03. It had six divestiture agreements under its portfolio program.
  • May 1, 2026Amcor's board changed the fiscal year end from June 30 to December 31. Amcor will report a six-month transition period from July 1 to December 31, 2026, and calendar years from 2027.

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Read it all? Star AMCR or pass, then go on to the next one.