Ambev

Ambev is the largest brewer in Brazil and makes beer and soft drinks in Latin America and Canada. Its brands include Brahma, Skol, Antarctica and Guarana Antarctica, and it also sells AB InBev brands such as Corona and Spaten in its markets. It reports five business units: Brazil Beer, Brazil non-alcoholic beverages (NAB), Central America and the Caribbean (CAC), Latin America South (LAS, which includes Argentina and Bolivia) and Canada. Brazil Beer is the largest unit, with R$9.8 billion of the R$20.1 billion of net revenue in Q2 2026.

Ambev makes money from the margin between the price of its drinks and the cost of malt, aluminum cans, sugar and distribution. It sells to small bars and shops through its BEES ordering app and to consumers through the Ze Delivery app. In 2025, its normalized EBITDA was R$29.5 billion, with a margin of 33.4%. AB InBev owned 62.3% of its shares on February 18, 2026.

Ambev trades at a discount because the market doubts that its 2026 beer growth will last. Total volume fell 3.3% in 2025. In Q2 2026, Brazil beer volume grew 5.0%, but part of this growth came from the FIFA World Cup, which does not repeat in 2027. Brazil soft drink volume fell 4.4%, and volumes fell in Latin America South and Canada.

Investors also fear Brazil's new Selective Tax on alcoholic drinks, which is to start on January 1, 2027. As of June 2026, the government had not set the rates, so the future tax cost on beer is not known. Costs are a third concern, because management expects Brazil beer cash cost per hectoliter to rise 4.5% to 7.5% in 2026. For the gap to close, Brazil beer volume must keep growing after the World Cup, normalized EBITDA must keep growing faster than revenue, and the Selective Tax rate on beer must keep the total tax burden near its current level.

Ambev must also keep its net cash position while it pays interest on capital and buys back shares. The first test is the Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026. The second test is the full-year 2026 report, expected in February 2027, with the first view of 2027 after the tax starts. If volumes hold and the tax stays neutral, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters.

The main risk is a high Selective Tax rate that forces price increases and cuts beer volume.

1. Oct 29, 2026Pending

   Q3 2026 results: Brazil beer volume and marginBrazil beer volume that still grows after the World Cup and normalized EBITDA growth above revenue growth pass; a fall in Brazil beer volume or a lower EBITDA margin fails.
2. Q4 2026 · est.Due this quarter

   Selective Tax rates on beerRates that keep the total tax burden on beer near its current level pass; a rate that forces large price increases on beer fails.
3. Feb 2027 · est.Pending

   Full-year 2026 results and 2027 viewPositive beer volume for 2026, stable net cash and a clear plan for the Selective Tax pass; lower volume or a lower margin in Brazil beer fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Ambev had net cash of R$15.4 billion at June 30, 2026, down from R$16.9 billion at December 31, 2025, because it paid interest on capital and bought back shares. Cash includes R$16.6 billion of cash and equivalents, net of bank overdrafts, and R$1.7 billion of short-term investment securities. Read more

• Brazil's new Selective Tax on alcoholic drinks is to start on January 1, 2027. As of June 2026, the government had not set the rates, and the Ministries of Finance and Health did not agree on the model. A high rate on beer can force price increases and cut volume in Ambev's largest business.
• Beer demand in Brazil depends on consumer income, weather and large events. Total volume fell 3.3% in 2025. Part of the Brazil beer growth in Q2 2026 came from the FIFA World Cup, so 2027 has a harder comparison.
• Costs rise. Management expects Brazil beer cash cost per hectoliter to rise 4.5% to 7.5% in 2026, from commodity prices such as aluminum and malt and from a weaker real against the US dollar. If Ambev cannot raise prices enough, its margin falls.
• Ambev reports in Brazilian reais, and the ADR trades in US dollars, so a weaker real lowers the ADR value of its profits. Argentina adds hyperinflation, which reduced profit by R$123.4 million in Q2 2026, and Bolivia had social unrest that cut volume in Q2 2026.
• AB InBev controls Ambev with 62.3% of its shares (72.6% with the FAHZ foundation) on February 18, 2026. Minority shareholders have little influence on strategy, dividends or deals with AB InBev.

• October 6, 2026Ambev paid the last tranche of the interest on capital that it declared in December 2025, R$1.9 billion before withholding tax.
• July 30, 2026Ambev reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue was R$20.1 billion, up 6.1% on an organic basis. Normalized EBITDA was R$6.4 billion, up 8.9%, with a margin of 31.6%. Brazil beer volume grew 5.0%, helped by the FIFA World Cup, and Brazil beer EBITDA grew 12.8%. Brazil soft drink volume fell 4.4%. Volume in Latin America South fell 2.9%, because social unrest and road blockades in Bolivia cut Bolivian volume by a double-digit percentage. Management kept its 2026 cost guidance.
• July 29, 2026The Board approved a new interest on capital payment of about R$1.1 billion before withholding tax, to be paid by December 2026. Ambev said it had completed about 95% of the share buyback program it announced in October 2025.