- Price
- $78.23 → $79.43(+1.5%)
- Discount
- 33.7% → 32.7%(−1.0 pts)
- Thesis
- Wynn Resorts trades at a discount because Macau makes about half of its property profit, and the Macau market is weakening. Macau gaming revenue fell from a year earlier in each month from June, July, and August to September 2026, while visitor numbers rose. So each visitor spends less. Wynn's strong Macau result in Q2 2026 came partly from luck at the tables, and Las Vegas profit fell 8.3%. The Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the UAE adds to the caution. It has been delayed about six months and its budget rose by about $600 million, and Iranian strikes on the UAE in 2026 briefly paused construction. Wynn also carries about $10.8 billion of debt, and higher interest rates make that debt more expensive to refinance. For the gap to close, Macau gaming revenue must stop falling by Q4 2026, and Wynn must keep its recent Macau market share at normal table luck. Las Vegas profit must grow again in 2027. Al Marjan Island must open in September 2027 within its budget of about $5.7 billion, and Wynn must not need more than its planned $525 million to $650 million of further equity. The evidence comes in Macau's monthly gaming revenue reports, Wynn's Q3 2026 report in early November 2026, and the refinancing of about $1.95 billion of debt due in 2027. The real test of the UAE project comes only when it opens in September 2027, so much of the gap will likely not close before then. Given Wynn's debt, a further Al Marjan delay or a longer Macau slowdown could keep the discount in place well past that date.
- Risks
- Macau made about half of Wynn's property profit over the 12 months to June 30, 2026. Macau gaming revenue fell from a year earlier in each month from June, July, and August to September 2026, while visitor numbers rose. A slowdown in Chinese spending, a change in Macau gaming rules, or tension between China and the West would hit Wynn harder than a more geographically spread-out casino operator.
Wynn Al Marjan Island has already been delayed about six months and its budget rose by about $600 million. It does not open until September 2027. Wynn owns 40%, still has to put in $525 million to $650 million, and guarantees the construction loan until the project is complete, no later than June 30, 2028. Iranian strikes on the UAE in 2026 briefly paused construction. A further delay or cost increase would push out the new growth.
Wynn had about $10.8 billion of debt at June 30, 2026, with ratings of B1 at Moody's and BB- at Fitch. About $1.95 billion comes due in 2027, and new debt now costs more: Wynn just refinanced $880 million of 5.25% notes with 6.875% notes. Each 1 percentage point rise in floating rates adds about $21 million a year of interest. Higher rates also lower the price investors pay for casino shares with high debt.
Weaker consumers can cut spending at all of Wynn's resorts. In Q2 2026, Wynn Las Vegas hotel occupancy fell 2.1 points, slot win fell 5.3%, and Las Vegas profit fell 8.3%. US consumer sentiment fell to a four-month low in September 2026. In Macau, spending per visitor is falling.
Wynn's Q2 2026 profit was helped by unusually high luck at the Wynn Palace tables and by a $43.3 million gain on a financial instrument. When table results return to normal, reported profit can fall even if the business does not change.
Fontainebleau Las Vegas, a large luxury resort with more than 3,600 rooms, opened on the north Las Vegas Strip in December 2023 and competes directly with Wynn Las Vegas and Encore. Wynn's largest individual shareholder is also buying Caesars, which owns several Strip casinos.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-01: Macau gaming revenue for September 2026 was 1.2% lower than a year earlier, at MOP 18.06 billion. It was the fourth monthly fall in a row and the lowest monthly total of 2026.
2026-09-22: Wynn issued $900 million of 6.875% senior notes due 2035, priced on September 10, to redeem $880 million of Wynn Las Vegas 5.250% notes due 2027. The new notes carry a higher interest rate.
2026-09-17: Wynn's CEO and CFO each gave up 10% of their cash salary through July 31, 2027, in exchange for stock options with an exercise price of $82.96.
2026-09-16: The US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate target by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75% to 4.00%.
2026-09-01: Macau gaming revenue for August 2026 was 1.2% lower than a year earlier. It was the third monthly fall in a row, after a fall of 8.4% in July. Visitor numbers rose 6.1% in August.
2026-08-04: Wynn reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $1.86 billion. Net income was $140.1 million, up from $66.2 million a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $1.32, up from $0.64. Adjusted Property EBITDAR was $568.3 million, up 2.9%.
2026-08-04: In Q2 2026, Wynn Palace kept 29.7% of mass-market table bets, against 22.3% a year earlier, which lifted its profit 28%. Las Vegas profit fell 8.3% to $215.2 million, and Encore Boston Harbor profit fell 12.2%.
2026-08-04: The board declared a $0.25 per share quarterly dividend. Wynn also repurchased $75.0 million of stock during the quarter, leaving $326.1 million of buyback authorization remaining.
2026-08-04: Wynn said Wynn Al Marjan Island will now open in September 2027, about six months later than the prior target, after the project's budget rose by roughly $600 million to about $5.7 billion. Wynn owns 40% of the project. It has put in $1.06 billion and expects to put in $525 million to $650 million more.
2026-07-21: Macau approved a change to the Wynn Palace land concession for a new hotel, theatre, and event center. Wynn expects this project to cost $900 million to $950 million.
2026-06-29: Moody's kept Wynn's B1 rating, but changed the outlook to stable from positive, because Wynn has not reduced its debt as much as expected.
2026-05-29: Tilman Fertitta, Wynn's largest individual shareholder with about 12%, agreed to buy Caesars Entertainment for $17.6 billion. Filings show that his companies have sold call options on Wynn shares since July 2026.
2026-04-01: Craig Fullalove became Wynn's Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Julie Cameron-Doe, who retired after more than four years in the role.
2026-03-11: Wynn said construction at Wynn Al Marjan Island resumed after a short pause during Iranian strikes on the UAE.