- Price
- $81.12 → $78.23(−3.6%)
- Discount
- 31.3% → 33.7%(+2.4 pts)
- About
- Wynn Resorts owns and runs luxury casino resorts. In Macau, it operates two integrated resorts, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau, through its roughly 72%-owned subsidiary Wynn Macau, Limited, which is listed in Hong Kong. Macau made about half of Wynn's property profit over the 12 months to June 30, 2026. In Las Vegas, it owns 100% of Wynn Las Vegas and Encore, two towers with about 4,700 hotel rooms and a large casino floor. It also ownsruns Encore Boston Harbor, a resort near Boston. Wynn earns money from casino gaming, hotel rooms, dining, and entertainment at these properties. It is now building Wynn Al Marjan Island, a large resort in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates, expected to becomethrough a joint venture in which it owns 40%. The resort holds the UAE's first licensed casino resortcommercial gaming licence and is expected to open in the Middle East when it opens in September 2027.
- Thesis
- Wynn Resorts trades at a discount because Macau still makes up more thanabout half of its operatingproperty profit, and the Macau market is weakening. Investors stay wary ofMacau gaming revenue fell from a slowdownyear earlier in Chinese travel or a shift inJune, July, and August 2026, while visitor numbers rose. So each visitor spends less. Wynn's strong Macau gaming rulesresult in Q2 2026 came partly from luck at the tables, and Las Vegas profit fell 8.3%. The Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the UAE adds to thisthe caution, since it. It has already been delayed onceabout six months and gotten meaningfully more expensiveits budget rose by about $600 million, and Iranian strikes on the UAE in 2026 briefly paused construction. HeavyWynn also carries about $10.8 billion of debt across the company leaves less room, and higher interest rates make that debt more expensive to absorb a setback in either marketrefinance. For the discountgap to close, Macau's mass-market recovery gaming revenue must keep goingstop falling by Q4 2026, and Wynn must keep gaining gamingits recent Macau market share there, as it has recentlyat normal table luck. Las Vegas profit must grow again in 2027. Al Marjan Island must also open on its resetin September 2027 timelinewithin its budget of about $5.7 billion, without another delay or cost increaseand Wynn must not need more than its planned $525 million to $650 million of further equity. The evidence comes in Macau's monthly gaming revenue reports, Wynn's next quarterlyQ3 2026 report, expected around in early November 2026, will show whether the Macau gains and Las Vegas growth continue. But the refinancing of about $1.95 billion of debt due in 2027. The real test of the UAE project comes only when it opens in September 2027, so much of thisthe gap will likely not close before then. Given Wynn's debt load, a further Al Marjan delay or a longer Macau setbackslowdown could keep the discount in place well past that date.
- Risks
- Macau still generates more thanmade about half of Wynn's Adjusted Property EBITDARproperty profit over the 12 months to June 30, 2026. Macau gaming revenue fell from a year earlier in June, July, and August 2026, while visitor numbers rose. A slowdown in Chinese travel or spending, a shiftchange in Macau gaming regulationrules, or renewed geopolitical tension between China and the West would hit Wynn harder than a more geographically spread-out casino operator.
Wynn Al Marjan Island, the company's first resort in the UAE, has already been delayed about six months and gotten roughlyits budget rose by about $600 million more expensive. It does not open until September 2027. Wynn owns 40%, still has to put in $525 million to $650 million, and guarantees the construction loan until the project is complete, no later than June 30, 2028. Iranian strikes on the UAE in 2026 briefly paused construction. A further delay or cost overrun before thenincrease would push out the new growth the market is pricing in.
Wynn carries more thanhad about $10.8 billion of debt across its Macauat June 30, Las Vegas2026, with ratings of B1 at Moody's and parentBB-level entities at Fitch. ItAbout $1.95 billion comes due in 2027, and new debt now costs more: Wynn just refinanced $900880 million of 5.25% notes at a higher interest rate,with 6.875% insteadnotes. Each 1 percentage point rise in floating rates adds about $21 million a year of interest. Higher rates also lower the price investors pay for casino shares with high debt.
Weaker consumers can cut spending at all of Wynn's resorts. In Q2 2026, Wynn Las Vegas hotel occupancy fell 2.1 points, slot win fell 5.2503%, which raises its future interest costand Las Vegas profit fell 8.3%. US consumer sentiment fell to a four-month low in September 2026. In Macau, spending per visitor is falling.
Wynn's Q2 2026 profit was helped by unusually high luck at the Wynn Palace tables and by a $43.3 million gain on a financial instrument. When table results return to normal, reported profit can fall even if the business does not change.
Fontainebleau Las Vegas, a large luxury resort with more than 3,600 rooms, opened on the north Las Vegas Strip in December 2023 and competes directly with Wynn Las Vegas and Encore. New room supply like this can pressure hotel rates and gaming volume on Wynn's home turf.
Casino gaminglargest individual shareholder is also buying Caesars, luxury hotel stays, and fine dining are discretionary purchaseswhich owns several Strip casinos. A broader economic slowdown in the US, mainland China, or the wider Gulf region could reduce visitation and spending across all of Wynn's markets at once.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-22: Wynn pricedissued $900 million of 6.875% senior notes due 2035, priced on September 10, to redeem $880 million of Wynn Las Vegas' outstanding 5.250% notes due 2027. The new notes carry a higher interest rate.
2026-09-17: Wynn's CEO and CFO each gave up 10% of their cash salary through July 31, 2027, in exchange for stock options with an exercise price of $82.96.
2026-09-16: The US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate target by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75% to 4.00%.
2026-09-01: Macau gaming revenue for August 2026 was 1.2% lower than a year earlier. It was the third monthly fall in a row, after a fall of 8.4% in July. Visitor numbers rose 6.1% in August.
2026-08-04: Wynn reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $1.86 billion. Net income was $140.1 million, up from $66.2 million a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $1.32, up from $0.64. Adjusted Property EBITDAR was $568.3 million, up 2.9%.
2026-08-04: In Q2 2026, Wynn Palace kept 29.7% of mass-market table bets, against 22.3% a year earlier, which lifted its profit 28%. Las Vegas profit fell 8.3% to $215.2 million, and Encore Boston Harbor profit fell 12.2%.
2026-08-04: The board declared a $0.25 per share quarterly dividend. Wynn also repurchased $75.0 million of stock during the quarter, leaving $326.1 million of buyback authorization remaining.
2026-08-04: Wynn said Wynn Al Marjan Island will now open in September 2027, about six months later than the prior target, after the project's budget rose by roughly $600 million to about $5.7 billion, due. Wynn owns 40% of the project. It has put in $1.06 billion and expects to regional shippingput in $525 million to $650 million more.
2026-07-21: Macau approved a change to the Wynn Palace land concession for a new hotel, theatre, and logistics disruptionsevent center. Wynn expects this project to cost $900 million to $950 million.
2026-06-29: Moody's kept Wynn's B1 rating, but changed the outlook to stable from positive, because Wynn has not reduced its debt as much as expected.
2026-05-29: Tilman Fertitta, Wynn's largest individual shareholder with about 12%, agreed to buy Caesars Entertainment for $17.6 billion. Filings show that his companies have sold call options on Wynn shares since July 2026.
2026-04-01: Craig Fullalove became Wynn's Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Julie Cameron-Doe, who retired after more than four years in the role.
2026-03-11: Wynn said construction at Wynn Al Marjan Island resumed after a short pause during Iranian strikes on the UAE.