- Price
- $81.50 → $81.12(−0.5%)
- Discount
- 30.9% → 31.3%(+0.3 pts)
- Thesis
- Wynn Resorts trades around $81.50, about 31% below its $118.00 fair value estimate. The market's caution centers onat a discount because Macau, which still makes up more than half of Wynn'sits operating profit, and on. Investors stay wary of a slowdown in Chinese travel or a shift in Macau gaming rules. The Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the UAE projectadds to this caution, whichsince it has already slippedbeen delayed once and grown roughly $600 milliongotten meaningfully more expensive. But Wynn's own results tellHeavy debt across the company leaves less room to absorb a steadier story: Las Vegas keeps growing its earnings, and Wynn Macau has been gaining gaming market sharesetback in Macau even as the wider Macaueither market keeps recovering. The company keeps paying a quarterly dividend and buying back stock while it funds Wynn Al Marjan IslandFor the discount to close, its first project outside Macau and Las Vegas. If Macau's mass-market recovery continuesmust keep going, and Wynn must keep gaining gaming market share there, as it has recently. Al Marjan Island opensmust also open on its reset September 2027 timeline, without further slippageanother delay or cost increase. Wynn's next quarterly report, expected around early November 2026, will show whether the discount can closeMacau gains and Las Vegas growth continue. The counter-case:But the real test of the UAE project has already been delayed and gotten more expensive once, socomes only when it could happen againopens in September 2027, and Wynn is carrying more than $10 billionso much of this gap will likely not close before then. Given Wynn's debt load, which leaves less room to absorb a further Al Marjan delay or a Macau setback could keep the discount in Macau or Las Vegasplace well past that date.