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WM changes

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View the full Oct 1, 2026 version
Price
$206.83 → $203.92(−1.4%)
Discount
6.0% → 7.3%(+1.3 pts)
Risks
WM Healthcare Solutions, the segment built from the 2024 Stericycle acquisition, has been running below plan. Softer volumes there were part of why management trimmed 2026 revenue guidance in July 2026, and the roughly $250 million in targeted deal synergies is not yet fully realized. WM already trades close to its estimated fair value, about a 67% discount. This leaves little room for error. If growth or margins disappoint, the stock has less of a cushion than a more deeply discounted pick would. Recycling profit depends on prices for paper, plastic, and other recovered materials that WM does not control. Management estimates that a $10-per-ton move in blended recycled-commodity prices changes EBITDA by about $27 million. WM is going through two senior leadership changes close together. CFO David Reed started in November 2025, and CEO Jim Fish is retiring, with John Morris taking over in January 2027. Two transitions this close together add execution risk. New state rules on PFAS chemicals in landfills, plus rising fuel and labor costs, could raise WM's operating expenses faster than its pricing can offset them.