- Next earnings
- 2026-10-28 → 2026-10-27
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- At $206.83, WM trades about 6% below its $220 fair value. ThisWaste Management is not a deep-value situation. It ispriced the kind of modest discount that shows up onway a steady, wide-moat compounder that rarely trades far from what itusually is worth. The case for closing that gap rests on continued execution: adjusted operating EBITDA and free cash flow have grown faster than revenue in every quarter of 2026 so far, margins keep expandingmeaning the market is not pricing in a big problem. Wide-moat means the analysts rate its competitive advantage as strong and lasting. A compounder is a company that steadily grows earnings over many years. Instead the Stericyclemarket is pricing in two near-basedterm questions. One is whether WM Healthcare Solutions segment matures, andbuilt from the board keeps returning most of that cash to shareholders2024 Stericycle purchase, including a 14can hit its cost-saving targets after running below plan.5% dividend increase The other is whether two leadership changes close together, a new CFO in late 2025 and a new $3 billion buyback authorized for 2026. If that trend holds through the leadership handoff to incoming CEO John Morristaking over in January 2027, go smoothly. For the discount cangap to close, Healthcare Solutions volumes need to stabilize. The honest counter-case: because WM already trades closeroughly $250 million in targeted synergies, savings from combining the two companies, need to fair valueshow up in the numbers. Incoming CEO John Morris needs to keep the operating momentum management built over the last decade. WM's core waste and recycling business keeps growing EBITDA, there is littlea measure of operating profit, and free cash flow faster than revenue. This gives management room for errorto work through these transition risks without hurting the dividend or the buyback plan. Slower progress integratingThe next earnings report, due October 27, 2026, should show whether Healthcare Solutions volumes are stabilizing after management trimmed 2026 revenue guidance in July. John Morris takes over as CEO on January 4, weak recycled-commodity prices, or2027. The following two to four quarters should show whether that handoff and the Healthcare Solutions turnaround stay on track. Even a bumpy CEO transitionsmall miss on either point could just as easily leavekeep the stock near today's price insteadfrom moving to a higher valuation.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-26: Jim Fish announced he will retire as CEO after more than a decade in the role and over 25 years at WM. The board named President John Morris as his successor, effective January 4, 2027.
2026-07-28: WM reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue grew 4.0% to $6.68 billion. Adjusted operating EBITDA grew 5.5% to $2.07 billion, a 30.9% margin. Free cash flow grew 35% to $1.10 billion. Management trimmed full-year revenue guidance slightly, to $26.275-$26.475 billion, on lower volumes, including in WM Healthcare Solutions, but kept its EBITDA and free cash flow guidance unchanged.
2026-05-12: WM named Tara Hemmer Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.
2026-01-29: WM reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results. Full-year revenue was $25.2 billion. Full-year adjusted operating EBITDA grew 13.3% to $7.17 billion, its best-ever margin. Management guided 2026 revenue to $26.4-$26.6 billion and free cash flow to $3.75-$3.85 billion.
2025-12-15: WM's board approved a planned 14.5% increase in the 2026 dividend rate, to $3.78 per share per year, the 23rd straight year of increases, and a new $3 billion share buyback authorization, replacing the prior $1.5 billion program.
2025-11-01: David Reed became WM's Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Devina Rankin, who retired after nearly 23 years at the company.