- Price
- $189.17
- Fair value
- $220.00
- Discount
- 14.0%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.20
- Moat
- Wide
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-05
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Verisk
- Sector
- Insurance data & analytics
- About
- Verisk sells data, analytics and software to the insurance industry. Its underwriting products include the standard policy forms, rules and loss cost data that insurers use to write and price policies, and catastrophe models for storms and other events. Its claims products help insurers find fraud and estimate the cost of property repairs. Insurers pay for most of these products with subscriptions, which give about 84% of revenue. The rest comes from transactions, such as reports bought one at a time. In Q2 2026, revenue was $806 million and adjusted EBITDA was $464 million. Verisk has data from many insurers over many decades, and the industry uses its forms and loss costs as a common standard.
- Thesis
- The market fears that AI will reduce the value of Verisk's data and analytics, and that growth has slowed. Revenue growth fell from 7.5% in 2024 to 6.6% in 2025 and to 3.9% in Q1 2026, which management called the low point. A court case adds a second doubt. In August 2026, a Delaware court ruled that Verisk had no right to end its $2.35 billion purchase of AccuLynx, a roofing software company, and told it to make reasonable efforts to get antitrust approval. Verisk appealed. The FTC asked for more information on the deal in 2025 and has not approved it, and Verisk bought back $1.9 billion of its shares in the first half of 2026 with cash and new debt, so a forced purchase adds debt. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Growth must return to the levels of the Investor Day targets in the second half of 2026, as management expects; in Q2 2026, organic constant currency growth was 5.8% and underlying subscription growth was 8.0%. Insurers must keep buying Verisk's AI products, and subscription renewals must hold. The AccuLynx case must end, by a win on appeal or by a deal with a clear path to approval and no large damages. The first check is the Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026. The full-year 2026 report in early 2027 and the Delaware Supreme Court decision follow. If growth recovers and the case ends, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
- Risks
- The AccuLynx case can force Verisk to buy AccuLynx for $2.35 billion, a deal that the FTC questioned for harm to competition and has not approved. If the appeal fails, Verisk must work to get approval, and it can owe damages. The deal adds debt after Verisk bought back $1.9 billion of shares in the first half of 2026. Legal fees already lowered profit in Q2 2026.
AI tools can lower the value of insurance data and analytics, or let insurers and new companies build their own models. Verisk's shares fell by about half from their high by May 2026 on this fear. Longer sales cycles for AI products also slowed growth.
Growth can stay slow. Revenue growth fell to 3.9% in Q1 2026, and transaction revenue depends on weather events and claims activity, which change from year to year.
Management changes can slow execution. The Chief Information Officer left his role in August 2026, and the Chief Human Relations Officer will retire after a successor is found.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $551M
Debt: $4.5B
Net debt: $3.9B
Interest cover: 6.9×
Undrawn credit line: $1.2B
Debt due within 12 months: $250M
Last debt due: 2050
Verisk funds itself with unsecured senior notes of the parent company. At June 30, 2026, it had $4.25 billion of senior notes, due from 2029 to 2050, and $250 million drawn on a 364-day term loan due February 19, 2027. Cash is cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2026, down from $2.18 billion at December 31, 2025. In January 2026, Verisk redeemed $1.5 billion of notes at 101% that it had issued for the AccuLynx purchase. In February 2026, it issued $1.0 billion of new notes due 2031 and 2036. It used cash, the new notes, the term loan and its revolving credit facility for $1.9 billion of buybacks in the first half of 2026. Interest cover is GAAP operating income of $363.7 million divided by net interest expense of $52.8 million in Q2 2026. The $1.25 billion syndicated revolving credit facility had $1.245 billion available. If Verisk must buy AccuLynx for $2.35 billion, debt will rise again.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: growth recovery. Pending. Watch: Organic constant currency growth above the 5.8% of Q2 and subscription growth near 8% pass; growth that falls back toward the 3.9% of Q1 fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with growth at the Investor Day target levels passes; lower growth guidance or a weaker margin fails.
2027 (estimate): Delaware Supreme Court decision on AccuLynx. Pending. Watch: A win on appeal, or a settlement with small costs, passes; a ruling that forces the $2.35 billion purchase with large damages or a long FTC fight fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-01: Verisk set November 5, 2026, before the market opens, as the date of its Q3 2026 results.
2026-08-18: Verisk filed an appeal with the Delaware Supreme Court against the Chancery Court ruling in its case with AccuLynx.
2026-08-07: The Delaware Court of Chancery ruled that Verisk had no right to end its $2.35 billion merger agreement with AccuLynx. The court ordered Verisk to use commercially reasonable efforts to get regulatory approval, and gave AccuLynx damages for its direct costs plus interest. The court did not order Verisk to close the deal at once. Verisk's shares opened 5.7% lower on August 10.
2026-07-29: Verisk reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $806 million, up 4.3%, or 5.8% on an organic constant currency basis, with 8.0% underlying subscription growth. Adjusted EPS was $1.98, up 5.3%, and free cash flow was $298 million, up 57.9%. Legal fees for the AccuLynx case lowered GAAP net income by 9.8%. Verisk kept its 2026 outlook and expects growth to return to the levels of its Investor Day targets in the second half.
2026-07-27: Verisk said that Nick Daffan, its Chief Information Officer, would leave the role on August 3, 2026, and stay as a strategic advisor until the end of the year.
2026-06-26: The trial in the AccuLynx case ended in the Delaware Court of Chancery. It ran from June 23 to 26, 2026.
2026-04-29: Verisk reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $783 million, up 3.9%, or 4.7% on an organic constant currency basis. Transaction revenue fell 6.1% because of weather, renewal comparisons and a federal contract. Adjusted EPS was $1.82. Verisk kept its 2026 guidance of $3.19 to $3.24 billion of revenue and $7.45 to $7.75 of adjusted EPS.