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VNTIndustrial technology

Vontier

Narrow moatMedium uncertainty

Updated

Price
$33.30
Fair value
fair value $48.00
Discount
30.6% below fair value
LSEG rating
LSEG 2.27 — lower is better (1–5)
Next earnings
Earnings Nov 5 · · estimated

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In short

Thesis
The market prices Vontier as a slow company tied to gasoline and weak tool demand, and a return to core growth over the next two to three years can close the gap.
Gap
Slow. The fear that electric vehicles will shrink fueling demand can go away only over several years of growth.
Next test
(estimate): Q3 2026 results: return to core growth

About

Vontier makes equipment and software for gas stations, convenience stores and vehicle repair. Fortive spun it off in 2020. It reports three segments. Environmental & Fueling Solutions, mainly Gilbarco, makes fuel dispensers, tank monitoring systems and spare parts, and it gave $366 million of the $757 million of sales in Q2 2026.

Mobility Technologies sells point-of-sale and payment systems for convenience stores, software for electric vehicle charging networks and other workflow software. Repair Solutions, mainly Matco Tools, sells tools, toolboxes and diagnostic equipment to mechanics through mobile franchisees, and it lends money to mechanics and franchisees for these purchases. Vontier expects 2026 sales of $3.0 billion to $3.05 billion. It uses most of its free cash flow for share buybacks.

Thesis

The market prices Vontier as a slow-growth company tied to gasoline and to the spending of car mechanics. Fuel dispensers and related parts give almost half of its sales, and investors fear that electric vehicles will reduce demand for fueling equipment over time. The other two segments were weak in 2026. In Q2 2026, Mobility Technologies sales fell 6.2% and Repair Solutions sales fell 1.3%, because mechanics spent less on tools.

Total core sales fell 0.2%. For the gap to close, Vontier must show that it can grow again. Core sales must grow about 5% in Q3 2026 and about 3% for the full year, as guided. Adjusted free cash flow conversion must reach about 95% of adjusted net earnings in 2026.

Repair Solutions sales must stop falling, and fueling demand must stay strong. The first test is the Q3 2026 report, expected in early November 2026. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 is the second test. Vontier must also refinance or repay a $300 million term loan due on March 30, 2027.

The fear of the electric vehicle shift can go away only slowly, so the gap will probably close over two to three years of steady growth and buybacks.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 5, 2026 · est.Pending
    Q3 2026 results: return to core growthCore sales growth near the guided 5% with stable Repair Solutions sales passes; core sales growth below 3% or a cut to 2026 guidance fails.
  2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance2027 guidance with core sales growth and higher adjusted EPS passes; guidance with falling core sales fails.
  3. Mar 30, 2027Pending
    $300 million term loan dueRepayment or refinancing with net leverage near 2.3 times passes; a rise in leverage above 3 times fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Balance sheet

Cash
$266M
Debt
$1.9B
Net debt
$1.6B
Net debt / EBITDA
2.3×
EBITDA $714M, last 12 months
Interest cover
9.3×
times profit pays interest
Credit line
$750M
undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$266M
Debt$1.9B

debt covered by cashnet debt $1.6B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

When the debt is due

12 months$305M
Later$1.6B

The last debt is due in 2031.

Vontier funds itself with unsecured notes and bank term loans. Its subsidiaries Gilbarco and Matco Tools guarantee them.

Risks

  • Fueling equipment gives almost half of Vontier's sales. If electric vehicles replace gasoline cars faster than expected, or if fuel retailers delay new equipment, sales and profit in this segment fall.
  • Matco Tools depends on mechanics who buy tools on credit. In 2026, mechanics spent less on tools, and Vontier added a bad debt reserve in Q1 2026. A weaker economy can raise credit losses on these loans.
  • Mobility Technologies sales fell 6.2% in Q2 2026 because of lower shipments of vehicle identification products. If its software and payment products do not grow, the segment stays a drag.
  • Vontier buys back shares with cash and debt. Net debt was 2.3 times adjusted EBITDA at July 3, 2026, and $300 million of debt is due on March 30, 2027. Tariffs and higher interest rates can also raise costs.

Recent events

  • October 2, 2026Kathryn Rowen, Executive Vice President and Chief Transformation and Operations Officer, told Vontier that she will leave on October 16, 2026, for another job.
  • August 6, 2026Vontier reported Q2 2026 results. Sales fell 2.2% to $756.7 million, and core sales fell 0.2%. Adjusted EPS was $0.89. Fueling core sales grew 4.6%, Mobility Technologies core sales fell 4.9%, and Repair Solutions sales fell 1.3%. Vontier raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.45 to $3.55 and guided Q3 core sales growth of about 5%.
  • June 30, 2026Vontier sold a majority of Teletrac Navman, its fleet software business. It received $85 million in cash, seller notes and a minority stake, and it recorded a preliminary loss of $86.2 million.
Show 3 older events
  • May 19, 2026The board raised the share buyback authorization to $1.0 billion. In the first half of 2026, Vontier bought back 6.2 million shares for $200 million.
  • May 7, 2026Vontier reported Q1 2026 results. Sales grew 1.3% to $750.6 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.80. Repair Solutions margin fell 180 basis points, partly because of a reserve for bad debt. Vontier also agreed to sell a majority of Teletrac Navman at a value of $220 million.
  • April 1, 2026Vontier repaid $500 million of notes that were due. It used $300 million from a new 364-day term loan and $200 million of cash.

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Read it all? Star VNT or pass, then go on to the next one.