- Price
- $57.21
- Fair value
- $65.00
- Discount
- 12.0%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.17
- Moat
- Wide
- Next earnings
- 2027-01-15
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- U.S. Bancorp
- Sector
- Banks
- About
- U.S. Bancorp is the parent company of U.S. Bank, the fifth-largest commercial bank in the United States, with $703.0 billion of assets at September 30, 2026. It serves about 15 million clients through three business lines: consumer and business banking, wealth and corporate banking, and payment services. It makes money from net interest income, the difference between what it earns on loans and securities and what it pays on deposits and debt. It also earns fees from card and merchant payments, treasury management, trust and investment management, and capital markets. Fees were $3.5 billion of the $8.0 billion of net revenue in Q3 2026. In June 2026, it bought BTIG, a broker-dealer and investment bank, to grow its capital markets business.
- Thesis
- The market doubts that U.S. Bancorp can grow capital fast enough to restart large buybacks while interest rates rise. The bank holds large bond portfolios bought when rates were low, so higher rates lower their value. The accumulated other comprehensive loss grew from $7.1 billion at June 30, 2026 to $9.5 billion at September 30, 2026, after the Federal Reserve raised its target rate in September. The CET1 ratio was 10.8%, but only 9.1% with this loss included, and the third quarter also used capital for loan growth and a small business credit card portfolio purchase. The bank bought back no shares in Q3 2026. Investors also watch the $50 billion of loans to non-bank financial companies, such as private equity funds and loan funds because the market fears losses in this type of lending. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The net interest margin must keep rising from 2.84% in Q3 2026 toward the 3% path that management gave for 2027, as low-rate assets reprice. Credit quality must stay good, with net charge-offs near the 0.51% of Q3 2026. The bank must restart buybacks while it keeps CET1 near 10.8%. The next check is the Q4 2026 report in mid-January 2027, where management gives its 2027 outlook. If the margin and buybacks follow the plan, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. If rates rise further and the bond losses grow, the gap can stay longer.
- Risks
- Higher interest rates lower the value of the bank's securities. The accumulated other comprehensive loss grew to $9.5 billion at September 30, 2026, from $7.1 billion at June 30, 2026. If rules or markets count this loss in capital, the CET1 ratio of 9.1% with this loss included limits buybacks.
Credit losses can rise in a weaker economy. The bank has $50 billion of loans to non-bank financial companies, such as private equity, loan funds and mortgage lenders, and it has commercial real estate and credit card loans. The credit card net charge-off ratio was 3.29% in Q3 2026, and the bank now holds a newly bought small business card portfolio.
Deposit costs can rise if competition for deposits grows or rates rise more. This can stop the net interest margin from reaching the 3% path that management expects in 2027.
The growth plan depends on acquisitions and new businesses, such as BTIG, the small business card portfolio and expansion markets. Expenses rose 7.1% in Q3 2026. If revenue from these steps grows slower than costs, returns can fall.
- Balance sheet
- U.S. Bancorp funds itself mostly with client deposits. At September 30, 2026, total assets were $703.0 billion and total deposits were $531.7 billion, of which $85.6 billion paid no interest. Other funding was $21.0 billion of short-term borrowings and $52.0 billion of long-term debt, down from $58.7 billion at June 30, 2026. Cash and amounts due from banks were $49.5 billion. Investment securities were $153.2 billion: $72.9 billion held to maturity and $80.2 billion available for sale. Total loans were $415.2 billion, with an allowance for credit losses of $8.2 billion, or 1.97% of loans. Capital is the real limit. The CET1 ratio was 10.8% at September 30, 2026, and 9.1% with the accumulated other comprehensive loss of $9.5 billion included. Tangible common equity was 6.6% of tangible assets. The stress capital buffer is 2.6% until October 1, 2027. Shareholders' equity was $66.4 billion, including $6.8 billion of preferred stock.
As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Jan 15, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A net interest margin above 2.84%, net charge-offs near 0.5%, a 2027 outlook with positive operating leverage and restarted buybacks pass; a lower margin, higher charge-offs or no buybacks fail.
Jun 2027 (estimate): Federal Reserve stress test results. Pending. Watch: A stress capital buffer at or below 2.6% from October 2027 passes; a higher buffer that limits buybacks fails.
2027 (estimate): Net interest margin path to 3%. Pending. Watch: A margin that reaches or nears 3% during 2027 as low-rate assets reprice passes; a margin that stays near 2.8% fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-15: U.S. Bancorp reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenue was a record $7.97 billion, and diluted EPS was $1.34, up 9.8%. Net interest income rose 5.6% and fee revenue rose 14.9%, helped by a full quarter of BTIG. The net interest margin rose to 2.84%, and the net charge-off ratio fell to 0.51%. The bank raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance to 8% to 9%. It bought a small business credit card portfolio, which added a $135 million initial provision for credit losses. It bought back no shares in the quarter, and management said that it plans to restart buybacks in the next one or two quarters.
2026-10-15: U.S. Bank completed a pilot payment with USBDC, its own US dollar-backed stablecoin, between its entities in North America and Europe on the Stellar blockchain.
2026-07-16: U.S. Bancorp reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue was a record $7.71 billion, and diluted EPS was $1.35, up 22%. Net interest income rose 7.5% and fee revenue rose 13.2%. It returned $1.0 billion to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and buybacks.
2026-06-24: After the Federal Reserve stress test, U.S. Bancorp said that its stress capital buffer stays at 2.6% until October 1, 2027. It planned to raise the quarterly dividend from $0.52 to $0.54 per share from Q3 2026.
2026-06-01: U.S. Bancorp completed the purchase of BTIG, a broker-dealer and investment bank. It paid $725 million at closing, half in cash and half in 6,600,594 shares, and it can pay up to $275 million more in cash over three years if BTIG meets targets.