- Price
- $400.32
- Fair value
- $475.00
- Discount
- 15.7%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 1.97
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-27
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- UnitedHealth Group
- Sector
- Health insurance & managed care
- About
- UnitedHealth Group sells health insurance plans through UnitedHealthcare. This includes Medicare Advantage plans for older adults, and group health plans for employers. Optum, the company's other segment, runs pharmacy benefit management, physician clinics, and health data services. The company earns money mainly from insurance premiums, and from fees for Optum's services.
- Thesis
- In 2025, UnitedHealth's medical costs rose faster than expected, mainly in Medicare Advantage. This forced the company to withdraw its 2025 guidance and replace its CEO. The market worries about an ongoing Department of Justice investigation into Medicare Advantage billing, and about lasting reputational damage from the killing of a UnitedHealthcare executive in December 2024. Since then, new management has delivered several straight quarters of improving medical cost ratios and stronger Optum results. Continued improvement can show the market that the 2025 cost spike was temporary, not permanent.
- Risks
- The Department of Justice is running investigations into UnitedHealth's Medicare Advantage billing practices. A Senate investigation published in January 2026 found evidence that the company used home visits and chart reviews to add diagnoses that increased its government payments. A large fine or forced change to these practices could reduce future revenue.
UnitedHealth's medical cost ratio was elevated through 2025 because new Medicare Advantage members cost more to treat than the company priced for. Government rate-setting and shifts in member mix can still push costs higher than planned in future years.
The killing of a UnitedHealthcare executive in December 2024 triggered public anger at health insurers over claim denials and prior authorization. This raised the risk of new state or federal regulation on insurer practices, which could reduce UnitedHealth's margins.
- Recent events
- 2026-07-16: UnitedHealth reported Q2 2026 revenue of $112.0 billion. The medical care ratio improved to 86.7%, from 89.4% a year earlier, and management raised full-year guidance.
2025-05-13: UnitedHealth withdrew its full-year 2025 earnings guidance. CEO Andrew Witty stepped down, and Stephen Hemsley returned as CEO.