- Price
- $420.88 → $450.61(+7.1%)
- Discount
- 21.2% → 15.6%(−5.6 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-16 → 2026-10-15
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market still prices TSMC keeps raising its own revenue and spending targetslike a plain contract manufacturer, becausenot like the company that makes almost every advanced AI chip demand. This differs from how it prices Nvidia or Broadcom, even as TSMC's own pricing power keeps coming in stronger than the company expectedgrowing. ManagementTSMC already raised the 2026 capital spending budgetwafer prices, and reports point to a further price rise in 2027 for advanced nodes. For the full-yeargap to close, TSMC must keep turning its bigger capital budget into revenue growth target more than onceat this year's pace. TSMCIts costly new fabs in Arizona and Japan must also raised its own wafer prices for 2026ramp up without further disruption. Investors want proof that demand outside AI, in phones and its most advanced chip capacityPCs, holds steady while this buildout continues. A separate, harder problem is already booked out into 2027the discount tied to Taiwan-China tension. This piece is a sign of real pricing powerunlikely to close soon, not just rising volumesince it depends on politics outside TSMC's control. The stock trades at a lower earnings multiple than other semiconductor companies, even thoughnext data point is TSMC now holds about 73% of the pure-foundry market and makes the chips that nearly all AI chip designers depend's Q3 2026 earnings call on October 15, 2026. If AI chip demand stays strong, and TSMC's spending keeps turning into more revenuepricing keep beating expectations over the next two to four quarters, the discountexecution part of the gap can close, even if the geopolitical discount lasts for years.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-15: Reports said TSMC plans to raise wafer prices again in 2027, by as much as 10% for its most advanced processes, to help cover the cost of its new US fabs.
2026-09-10: TSMC reported August 2026 revenue of about NT$514.8 billion, up 53% from a year earlier and up 10% from July. Year-to-date revenue through August was up more than 39% from a year earlier.
2026-07-16: TSMC reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue grew 36% from last year, to $40.2 billion.
2026-07-16: Management raised the full-year 2026 revenue growth target to more than 40%, and raised the 2026 capital spending budget to $60-64 billion.
2026-07-16: TSMC announced another $100 billion investment in Arizona, raising its total US commitment to $265 billion and its planned Arizona fab count to as many as ten.