- Price
- $157.03
- Fair value
- $235.00
- Discount
- 33.2%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 1.96
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- T-Mobile US
- Sector
- Telecom services
- About
- T-Mobile US is one of the three large wireless carriers in the United States. It sells mobile phone plans under the T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile and Mint Mobile brands. It also sells home internet over its 5G network, and it adds fiber home internet through joint ventures. It reports one segment, Wireless. Most of its revenue comes from monthly service fees, and postpaid service revenue was $15.9 billion of $19.0 billion of service revenue in Q2 2026. It also earns money from the sale of phones and other devices. At June 30, 2026, it had 34.7 million postpaid accounts. Deutsche Telekom owns about 53% of the shares and controls the company.
- Thesis
- The market prices T-Mobile at a discount because it fears that new competition will end the company's long period of fast growth. On October 8, 2026, SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management's 800 MHz spectrum, which T-Mobile sold to Grain in August 2026, to make Starlink Mobile a full US carrier. The Wall Street Journal reported a price of about $8 billion. T-Mobile shares fell nearly 10% the next morning. Growth was already slower: postpaid net account additions fell 13% in Q2 2026 from a year earlier, and the CFO will leave the role in February 2027. For the gap to close, T-Mobile must show that the new competitor does not take its customers. Postpaid net account additions must reach the 2026 guidance of 950,000 to 1.05 million, postpaid account churn must stay near 1%, and Core Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow must reach the raised 2026 guidance. SpaceX must also not start a low-price national service that takes many T-Mobile customers in 2027. The first test is the Q3 2026 report on October 28, 2026. The Q4 report and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 give the second test, and the FCC review of the SpaceX spectrum purchase gives a third. The fear of a new entrant can last for years, so the gap will probably close only over two to three years of steady results.
- Risks
- SpaceX plans to become a full US carrier with satellites and low-band spectrum that it agreed to buy in October 2026. A new national competitor can force lower prices, higher promotions or more customer losses for all three carriers.
Growth in customers is slowing. Postpaid net account additions fell 13% in Q2 2026 from a year earlier, and postpaid account churn rose to 0.99% from 0.92%. If this trend continues, service revenue growth slows.
Deutsche Telekom controls T-Mobile with about 53% of the shares. A combination of the two companies, as Bloomberg reported in April 2026, could be made on terms that favor Deutsche Telekom. Shareholder lawsuits about past deals with Deutsche Telekom and SoftBank are still open.
Management changes at the same time. Srini Gopalan became CEO in November 2025, a new Chief Enterprise Officer starts by October 2026, and the CFO hands over to Jessica Uhl in February 2027.
T-Mobile has about $84.6 billion of debt and pays for buybacks and dividends partly with new debt. Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt, but net debt was 2.3 times Adjusted EBITDA at June 30, 2026.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $2.8B
Debt: $86.9B
Net debt: $84.1B
EBITDA, last 12 months: $35.9B
Net debt / EBITDA: 2.3× (medium)
Interest cover: 4.8×
Undrawn credit line: $10.0B, to January 2031
Debt due within 12 months: $7.3B
T-Mobile funds itself mostly with unsecured senior notes of its subsidiary T-Mobile USA, guaranteed by the parent. At June 30, 2026, debt to third parties was $84.6 billion, and the debt in the figures also includes $2.3 billion of financing lease liabilities. Debt does not include operating lease liabilities of $29.1 billion or the tower obligations to Crown Castle. The effective interest rate was 4.3% in Q2 2026. In the first half of 2026, T-Mobile issued $6.4 billion of new debt and repaid $7.8 billion, which included $1.5 billion of notes held by affiliates of Deutsche Telekom. Small secured parts are $2.0 billion of notes backed by device installment receivables and a $1.0 billion loan backed by service receivables. EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months to June 30, 2026, and the company states net debt of 2.3 times this amount. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the first half of 2026. The $10.0 billion revolving credit facility and the $2.0 billion commercial paper program had nothing drawn at June 30, 2026. Spectrum licenses of $98.2 billion are the largest asset. In 2026, T-Mobile plans up to $18.2 billion of buybacks and dividends, about equal to its Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion. It pays for them with cash and new debt, so it refinances debt that comes due and debt stays near the current level.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 results: account growth and churn. Pending. Watch: Postpaid net account additions on track for the 950,000 to 1.05 million guidance with churn near 1% pass; lower guidance or a clear rise in churn fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with growth in Core Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow near the trend of 2026 passes; guidance that shows lower growth because of price competition fails.
2027 (estimate): FCC decision on the SpaceX purchase of Grain's 800 MHz spectrum. Pending. Watch: Approval with no fast start of a SpaceX ground network, or a SpaceX deal to use a carrier's network, passes; a quick SpaceX launch with low prices that takes customers from T-Mobile fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-08: SpaceX agreed to buy all of Grain Management's 800 MHz spectrum to make Starlink Mobile a major US carrier. The Wall Street Journal reported a cash price of about $8 billion, and the deal needs FCC approval. Grain bought this spectrum from T-Mobile in August 2026. On the next morning, T-Mobile shares fell nearly 10%.
2026-09-17: T-Mobile said it will report Q3 2026 results on October 28, 2026, after the market closes, with a call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
2026-09-03: T-Mobile said that CFO Peter Osvaldik will retire from the CFO role in February 2027 and stay as a strategic advisor through July 1, 2027. Jessica Uhl, a former CFO of Shell and former president of GE Vernova, joined in mid-September 2026 as CFO Designate.
2026-07-23: T-Mobile reported Q2 2026 results. Service revenue grew 9% to $19.0 billion, and Core Adjusted EBITDA grew 12% to $9.5 billion. Postpaid net account additions fell 13% to 277,000. T-Mobile raised its 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance to $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion and kept its other guidance.
2026-07-07: T-Mobile named Chris Sambar as Chief Enterprise Officer. Chief Business and Product Officer Michael Katz left his role on July 8, 2026.
2026-05-14: T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon agreed in principle to form a joint venture that pools some spectrum to help satellite providers reach phones in areas with no coverage.
2026-04-28: T-Mobile reported Q1 2026 results. Service revenue grew 11% to $18.8 billion, and postpaid net account additions grew 6% to 217,000. T-Mobile raised its 2026 guidance for net account additions, Core Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. On April 23, 2026, the board raised the 2026 shareholder return program to up to $18.2 billion.
2026-04-21: Bloomberg reported that Deutsche Telekom held early talks about a full combination with T-Mobile US through a new holding company that would pay in shares. Both companies declined to comment, and no deal was announced.