- Price
- $52.65
- Fair value
- $84.00
- Discount
- 37.3%
- Uncertainty
- High
- LSEG rating
- 2.14
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Terex
- Sector
- Specialty machinery
- About
- Terex makes specialized equipment for emergency services, waste and recycling, utilities and construction. On February 2, 2026, it completed the purchase of REV Group, which makes fire trucks, ambulances and other specialty vehicles. Terex now reports four segments: Environmental Solutions (refuse collection trucks and utility equipment), Materials Processing (mobile crushers and screens), Specialty Vehicles (the former REV Group) and Aerials (Genie aerial work platforms). Terex sells most of its equipment through dealers and to rental companies, utilities and cities, and it also earns money from parts and service. It sold its tower and rough terrain cranes businesses on October 31, 2025. For 2026, it expects sales of $7.9 billion to $8.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $960 million to $1.0 billion.
- Thesis
- The market prices Terex as a cyclical machine maker in the middle of a large change. The REV Group purchase added debt and an integration. Terex also runs a strategic review of its Aerials business with interest from multiple parties, but it has not said the result or the date. Aerials has the lowest margin of the four segments, and tariffs cut its adjusted EBITDA margin to 5.7% in Q2 2026 from 9.1% a year earlier. Refuse truck shipments also fell. The stock fell by about a quarter from late June to mid-October 2026. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Terex must reach its raised 2026 guidance of $960 million to $1.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA, which needs a stronger second half. The REV synergies must reach the planned $75 million annual run rate within two years, with about $28 million in 2026. The Aerials strategic review must end in a sale or separation at a fair value, and Terex must use the money to cut debt or buy back shares. Net debt must fall below the 2.3 times adjusted EBITDA of June 30, 2026. The first test is the Q3 2026 report on October 28, 2026, and the FY 2026 report in about February 2027 gives the 2027 guidance. An Aerials deal can come at any time. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to six quarters.
- Risks
- Demand for aerial work platforms and crushers moves with construction and rental company spending. A slowdown in non-residential construction or higher interest rates can cut orders quickly.
Tariffs raise costs, mostly in Aerials, whose adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 5.7% in Q2 2026 from 9.1% a year earlier. New tariffs or slower price increases can lower margins again.
The strategic review of Aerials can end with a low price, a long delay or no deal. Until it ends, investors cannot value the company with certainty.
The REV Group integration must deliver about $75 million of annual synergies within two years. Specialty Vehicles depends on fire truck and ambulance production, and Environmental Solutions had lower refuse truck shipments and production problems in Utilities in Q2 2026.
Net debt was $2.28 billion at June 30, 2026, 2.3 times adjusted EBITDA. A downturn can raise leverage and slow buybacks.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $407M
Debt: $2.7B
Net debt: $2.3B
Net debt / EBITDA: 2.3× (medium)
Interest cover: 3.7×
Debt due within 12 months: $4.0M
Last debt due: 2032
Terex funds itself with senior notes and a term loan. At June 30, 2026, debt included $600 million of 5% senior notes due May 15, 2029, $750 million of 6.25% senior notes due October 15, 2032, and term debt due October 8, 2031. Debt in the figures is long-term debt plus the current portion, net of issuance costs. Net debt was $2.28 billion, 2.3 times adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months to June 2026, down after the REV Group purchase. Interest cover is operating profit divided by interest expense for Q2 2026. Liquidity, cash plus availability under the revolving credit line, was $1.1 billion. The $800 million revolving credit facility ends on October 8, 2029. Free cash flow was $101 million in Q2 2026, and Terex expects $300 million to $350 million for 2026. About $183 million remained under its share buyback programs.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 results: Aerials margin and second-half step up. Pending. Watch: A higher Aerials margin than in Q2, an adjusted EBITDA margin above 12% and the 2026 outlook kept pass; a cut to the outlook fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): FY 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: Adjusted EBITDA of $960 million to $1.0 billion for 2026, free cash flow of $300 million to $350 million and REV synergies on plan pass; a miss of the guidance fails.
Q1 2027 (estimate): Outcome of the Aerials strategic review. Pending. Watch: A sale or separation of Aerials at a fair value, with the money used to cut debt or buy back shares, passes; no deal or a low price fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-07-31: Terex filed pro forma financial statements for the combined company with REV Group for H1 2026 and for 2025.
2026-07-30: Terex reported Q2 2026 results. Sales rose 50.5% to $2.2 billion with REV Group, and 8.5% on a pro forma basis. Adjusted EBITDA was $269 million, a 12.0% margin, and adjusted EPS was $1.37. Bookings rose 25.2% on a pro forma basis, and Aerials bookings rose 71%. Terex raised its 2026 outlook to sales of $7.9 billion to $8.2 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.70 to $5.10. It said that the strategic review of Aerials has interest from multiple parties.
2026-06-25: Shareholders approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan at the annual meeting.
2026-05-01: Terex reported Q1 2026 results, with the first 58 days of REV Group. Sales rose 41% to $1.7 billion, and 11% on a pro forma basis. Merger-related charges led to a loss from continuing operations of $93 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.98. Backlog grew to $7.1 billion.