- Price
- $39.52
- Fair value
- $49.00
- Discount
- 19.3%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 3.00
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-06
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Molson Coors
- Sector
- Beer and beverages
- About
- Molson Coors Beverage Company is one of the largest beer companies in the world, based in Golden, Colorado, and Montréal, Québec. Its core brands include Coors Light, Miller Lite, Coors Banquet, Molson Canadian, Carling and Ožujsko, and its above premium brands include Madrí Excepcional, Staropramen and Blue Moon. Its value brands include Miller High Life and Keystone Light. Since 2025, it has had the exclusive rights to make and sell Fever-Tree mixers in the United States, and it holds a minority stake in Fevertree Drinks plc. On April 1, 2026, it bought Atomic Brands, the maker of Monaco Cocktails, for $275 million. It has two segments: Americas (the United States, Canada and Latin America) and EMEA&APAC (mostly Europe). Net sales were $3.10 billion in Q2 2026.
- Thesis
- The market prices Molson Coors for a long decline in beer volumes and for higher costs. In Q2 2026, brand volume fell 4.8%, net sales fell 3.3% and underlying EPS fell 22.9% to $1.58. Fewer young adults drink beer, and customers move to spirits, ready-to-drink cocktails and non-alcoholic drinks. Costs for aluminum, including the Midwest Premium of more than $130 million this year, and for logistics stay high. Molson Coors expects underlying EPS to fall 11% to 15% in 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. US brand volumes must stop falling faster than the beer market, so that Coors Light and Miller Lite keep their share. Cost savings and price must restore margins in 2027. The new businesses beyond beer, such as Monaco and Fever-Tree, must grow enough to offset part of the beer decline. Molson Coors keeps underlying free cash flow near $1.1 billion, which pays for dividends and buybacks while it waits. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about November 6, 2026, is the next test. The 2027 outlook in February 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a faster structural decline in beer drinking.
- Risks
- Beer volumes in the United States, Canada and Europe are falling as customers drink less or move to other drinks. Brand volume fell 4.8% in Q2 2026, and a faster decline would lower sales and margins.
Costs for aluminum cans, including the US Midwest Premium, and for other materials and logistics can stay high. Molson Coors may not raise prices enough to cover them.
Anheuser-Busch, Constellation Brands and craft and spirits makers compete for the same customers and shelf space. Share losses in core brands would lower profit.
New businesses beyond beer, such as Monaco and Fever-Tree, are small. They may not grow enough to offset the decline in beer.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $2.1B
Debt: $7.7B
Net debt: $5.6B
Net debt / EBITDA: 2.5× (medium)
Undrawn credit line: $2.0B, to June 2030
Debt due within 12 months: $2.0B
At June 30, 2026, Molson Coors had total debt of $7.71 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $2.13 billion, so net debt was $5.58 billion. Net debt was 2.53 times underlying EBITDA, compared with 2.41 times a year earlier. The current part of debt and short-term borrowings was $2.04 billion. After June 30, 2026, Molson Coors repaid its $2.0 billion of 3.0% senior notes with the money from its May 2026 notes and cash on hand. Nothing was drawn on its $2.0 billion revolving credit facility, which matures on June 26, 2030; at August 6, 2026, $0.2 billion of commercial paper was outstanding and $1.8 billion was available. In the first half of 2026, it paid $183.7 million of dividends and $211.0 million for share buybacks.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 6, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: volumes and costs. Pending. Watch: A smaller fall in US brand volume and results on track for the 2026 guidance pass; a cut to the guidance or a faster volume decline fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): 2026 results and the 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with stable or higher underlying earnings passes; guidance for another year of lower earnings fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-08-06: Molson Coors reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales fell 3.3% to $3.10 billion and brand volume fell 4.8%. Underlying EPS fell 22.9% to $1.58, and GAAP EPS was $1.23. Molson Coors kept its 2026 guidance: flat net sales at constant currency, underlying EPS down 11% to 15% and underlying free cash flow of about $1.1 billion. After the quarter, it repaid its $2.0 billion of 3.0% senior notes.
2026-07-16: The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, paid on September 18, 2026.
2026-06-24: Philip Whitehead, the CEO of the EMEA&APAC business, took medical leave. Simon Kerry, the head of the UK and Ireland business, became interim head of EMEA&APAC.
2026-05-27: Molson Coors issued $500 million of 4.900% senior notes due 2031 and $1.0 billion of 5.500% senior notes due 2036. A subsidiary also sold C$500 million of 4.300% senior notes due 2033.
2026-04-01: Molson Coors bought Atomic Brands, the maker of Monaco Cocktails, a ready-to-drink cocktail brand, for $275 million in cash.