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Price: $118.08
Fair value: $140.00
Discount: 15.7%
Uncertainty: Medium
LSEG rating: 2.06
Moat: None
Next earnings: 2026-10-27
Next earnings is estimate: Yes
Company name: Sun Communities
Sector: Manufactured housing and RV REIT
About: Sun Communities is a real estate investment trust (REIT) based in Southfield, Michigan. It owns and operates manufactured housing (MH) communities and recreational vehicle (RV) communities, most of them in the United States and some in Canada. At June 30, 2026, it had 282 MH properties and 152 RV properties. Residents in MH communities usually own their homes and rent the land under them, and moving a home is costly, so residents stay for a long time. RV communities have annual sites and short-stay transient sites. Sun also sells and leases homes in its communities. It sold its UK holiday park business, Park Holidays, in September 2026 and its marinas business, Safe Harbor, in 2025, so it now focuses on MH and RV communities in North America.
Thesis: The market prices Sun for weak results in its RV business, for the losses and changes of the last two years and for higher interest rates, which lower the value of real estate. In Q2 2026, same property NOI rose 8.8% in MH but fell 0.7% in RV. Sun took a non-cash charge of $1.1 billion in Q2 2026 on the sale of its UK business. It also has a new management team: Charles Young became CEO in 2025, and Robert Garechana became CFO on September 8, 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. MH same property NOI must keep growing by 6% or more, with occupancy near 98%. RV results must stabilize. Sun must use the $1.03 billion of net proceeds from the UK sale well, for buybacks, debt repayment or good acquisitions, and reach its 2026 Core FFO guidance of $6.94 to $7.10 per share. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about October 27, 2026, is the next test. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is that interest rates stay high, which keeps REIT values low.
Risks: RV results depend on travel demand and the weather. Same property NOI in RV fell 0.7% in Q2 2026, and transient demand can stay weak. Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt and lower the value of real estate. Sun had $4.05 billion of debt at June 30, 2026. State and local rules on rent increases in manufactured housing communities can limit rent growth. Sun has a new CEO since 2025 and a new CFO since September 2026. Changes in strategy or in capital allocation can take time to show results.
Balance sheet: Cash: $165M Debt: $4.1B Net debt: $3.9B Net debt / EBITDA: 3.9× (medium) Undrawn credit line: $2.0B, to January 2030 At June 30, 2026, Sun had $4.05 billion of debt from continuing operations: $2.26 billion of secured debt, mostly mortgage term loans, and $1.79 billion of senior unsecured notes. The weighted average interest rate was 3.3% and the weighted average maturity was 6.9 years. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $165.2 million, of which $150.6 million was unrestricted. Nothing was drawn on the $2.0 billion senior credit facility, which matures on January 31, 2030. Net debt was 3.9 times trailing twelve-month recurring EBITDA. After the quarter, Sun repaid two more mortgage term loans of $258.3 million, and in September 2026 it received net proceeds of about $1.03 billion from the UK sale. As of 2026-06-30.
Checkpoints: Oct 27, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: MH growth and RV trends. Pending. Watch: Core FFO per share within the $2.23 to $2.33 guidance and MH same property NOI growth of 6% or more pass; a cut to the 2026 guidance or a larger fall in RV fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): 2026 results and the 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: A 2027 Core FFO outlook that grows after the UK sale and a clear plan for the proceeds pass; lower guidance fails.
Recent events: 2026-10-01: Sun's operating partnership issued 283,126 new Series M preferred units, worth $28.3 million at the $100 issue price, as payment for assets contributed to it. The units pay 3.2% in the first year, rising to 3.6%, and can be exchanged for common shares at $174.00 per share. 2026-09-22: Sun completed the sale of Park Holidays, its UK business, to an affiliate of Aermont Capital for about £772.3 million, or about $1.05 billion. Net proceeds were about $1.03 billion. 2026-08-24: Sun appointed Robert Garechana, the former CFO of Equity Residential, as CFO from September 8, 2026. 2026-07-27: Sun reported Q2 2026 results. Core FFO was $1.84 per share, up from $1.76. Same property NOI rose 6.0%, with 8.8% growth in MH and a 0.7% fall in RV. MH and annual RV sites were 97.9% occupied. Sun recorded a non-cash charge of $1.1 billion to reduce the value of the UK business and set 2026 Core FFO guidance of $6.94 to $7.10 per share. 2026-05-27: The board renewed the stock buyback program for up to $1.0 billion through May 27, 2027. In Q2 2026, Sun bought back about 0.9 million shares for $111.1 million. 2026-05-21: Sun agreed to sell Park Holidays, its UK business, to an affiliate of Aermont Capital at an enterprise value of £768 million.