- Thesis
- Some investors seethink that the recent growth of S&P Global's recent growth as is unusually goodhigh and unlikely towill not last. In the second quarter of 2026, Ratings revenue jumpedgrew 17% last quarter, largely on a surge. Management said that much of this growth came from debt for AI data center debtcenters and from merger financing. That is a sourceThis kind of issuance that can slow when AI spending coolsslows. Other investors worrythink that private lenders will skipstop using public credit ratings altogether as private credit keeps growinggrows. S&P Global has answered the secondanswers this worry by doubling itswith growth in private credit ratings coverage since 2021. It has also expanded further into new areas. These include a September 2026 deal to buy OpenZeppelin, which ratesmarkets: in the securitysecond quarter of onchain (blockchain) finance code2026, and an expanded data alliance with KaikoRatings revenue from private markets grew 60%. The Indices business, tied to gives a recordsecond source of growth. ETFs that track S&P indices held $6.35 trillion in ETF assetsat June 30, gives a second growth engine that moves2026, and Indices fees move with fund flows ratherassets more than thewith bond-market cycle issuance. This offsets a slowdown in Ratings. For the discountgap to close, bonddebt issuance tied toby hyperscalers, the largest cloud computing providerscompanies, needs to keep coming inmust stay near management'sthe $250- to $300 billion forecastthat management assumes for the year2026. Private credit deals must also needcontinue to keep needinguse public ratings rather than bypassing them. The next quarterlythird quarter results, due on October 27, 2026, will help show this. So will full-year and the issuance data through yearthe end, which together of 2026 will show whetherif the 2026's growth was a temporary AI-driven spikepeak or a durable shiftlasting change. If issuance holds upstays high and private credit keeps needingcontinues to use ratings, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. If AI-related debt issuance slowsfalls sharply, growth could coolcan go back towardto its more normal historical paceusual rate.
- Risks
- Much of Ratings'the recent growth in Ratings comes from a surge indebt for AI data center debt issuancecenters. Management raisedOn the Q2 2026 call, management increased its forecastassumption for hyperscaler-related debt issuance in 2026 from about $200 billion to $250- to $300 billion for the year. A slowdown inIf AI infrastructure spending could sharply reduceslows, this bond issuance and hurt Ratings revenue can fall sharply.
S&P Global plans to raise leverage temporarily to fundincrease its debt for a time to buy back more than $7 billion share buybackof shares in 2026. Reports of the Q2 earnings call said management expects gross leverage of 2.7- to 2.8 times EBITDA by yearat the end of 2026. This is above the company's normal target of 2.0- to 2.5 times target, and management expects to be in that range again by the end of 2027.
PrivateS&P Global Ratings research said private credit lenders funded nearlygave about $146 billion of below-investment-grade debt in 2025, more than the amount funded through broadly to borrowers rated B- and below. Broadly syndicated loans gave about $85 billion to the same group. Many private credit deals do not requireneed a traditional public credit rating, which couldcan limit Ratings' addressablethe market for Ratings over time.
S&P Global completed the spin-off of its Mobility division in July 2026. The remaining company now has less revenue diversification and must absorb the standalone costs of operating without that business.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $4.1B
Debt: $15.2B
Net debt: $11.1B
Interest cover: 24×
Undrawn credit line: $2.0B, to December 2029
Last debt due: 2062
Ratings: Moody's A3 (stable outlook)
S&P Global funds itself with cash from its ratings, index and data businesses, and with unsecured notes that the parent company issues and its ratings subsidiary guarantees. Management plans buybacks of more than $7 billion in 2026 and expects leverage to rise above its target before it falls in 2027. At June 30, 2026, debt of $15.2 billion was mostly fixed-rate notes due from 2027, plus $825 million of commercial paper. ButNotes of $21.07 billion ofare due in 2027. Of this debt, $2.0 billion was Mobility Global notes, which left with Mobility at the July 1, 2026 spin-off. BeforeWithout them, debt was about $13.2 billion. At the spin-off, Mobility paid S&P Global a dividendnet cash distribution of about $21.97 billion, and S&P Global kept it. Interest cover is first half 2026 operating profit plus depreciation and amortization of $4.4 billion over net interest expense of $182 million. This profit includes a gain of $186 million from a sale and the profit of Mobility. The undrawn $2.0 billion credit line backs the commercial paper and ends on December 17, 2029. Moody's last affirmed its rating in 2022, after the IHS Markit merger. The balance sheet also carries $5.0 billion of redeemable noncontrolling interest for CME Group's 27% share of S&P Dow Jones Indices. CME can atAt any time, CME can make S&P Global buy partat least 20% of that share at fair value. CME can make S&P Global buy all of it after a change of control. This is a possible cash call that does not show as debt. Until October 5, 2026, S&P Global filed no new note issue and no new buyback agreement after June 30. The buyback plan is about five times the $1.5 billion bought in the first half. Reports of the Q2 earnings call said management expects to borrow about $2 billion more to pay for the buybacks. The same reports said management expects gross leverage of 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA at year end, above its 2.0 to 2.5 times target.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-29: Cboe and S&P Dow Jones Indices signed a 25-year extension of their exclusive license for S&P 500 index options, through 2051.
2026-09-17: S&P Global agreed to buy OpenZeppelin, a company that secures onchain (blockchain) finance code. Terms were not disclosed, and the deal is not expected to have a material financial impact. OpenZeppelin keeps operatingwill operate under its own name inside S&P Global Ratings.
2026-09-1114: S&P Global expanded its strategic alliance with, through S&P Global Ventures, led an investment that increased the Series B round of digital-asset data firmcompany Kaiko to $110 million. The investment is part of a wider partnership between the two companies.
2026-09-01: Bloomberg reported that S&P Global is at an early stage of a study to spin off Capital IQ Pro, its main data platform. People familiar with the plan said the unit can have a value of high single-digit billions of dollars. S&P Global did not announce a plan, and it can decide not to do it.
2026-07-28: S&P Global reported second quarter revenue of $4.15 billion, up 10%. This figure includes Mobility. Without Mobility, revenue grew 11%, and adjusted earnings per share grew 23% to $4.83. Ratings revenue grew 17%, and Indices revenue grew 20%. The company kept its plan to buy back more than $7 billion of shares in 2026.
2026-07-01: S&P Global completed the spin-off of Mobility Global Inc., which began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker MBGL.
2026-05-20: The board of S&P Global approved a plan to spin off the Mobility division into an independent public company.