- Risks
- Much of Ratings' recent growth comes from a surge in AI data center debt issuance. Management raised its forecast for hyperscaler-related issuance to $250-300 billion for the year. A slowdown in AI infrastructure spending could sharply reduce this bond issuance and hurt Ratings revenue.
S&P Global plans to raise leverage temporarily to fund a $7 billion share buyback in 2026. GrossReports of the Q2 earnings call said management expects gross leverage is expected to reachof 2.7-2.8 times EBITDA by year end,. This is above the company's normal 2.0-2.5 times target range.
Private credit lenders funded nearly $146 billion of below-investment-grade debt in 2025, more than the amount funded through broadly syndicated loans. Many private credit deals do not require a traditional public credit rating, which could limit Ratings' addressable market over time.
S&P Global completed the spin-off of its Mobility division in July 2026. The remaining company now has less revenue diversification and must absorb the standalone costs of operating without that business.
- Balance sheet
- S&P Global funds itself with cash from its ratings, index and data businesses. It also uses unsecured notes that the parent company issues and its ratings subsidiary guarantees. At June 30, 2026, reported debt was $15.2 billion, mostly fixed-rate notes due from 2027 to 2062, plus $825 million of commercial paper. But $2.0 billion of this was Mobility Global notes, which left with Mobility at the July 1, 2026 spin-off. Before the spin-off, Mobility paid S&P Global a dividend of about $2 billion, and S&P Global kept it. Cash was $4.1 billion. In the first half of 2026, operating profit plus depreciation and amortization was $4.4 billion, and net interest expense was only $182 million. An undrawn $2.0 billion credit line to December 2029 backs the commercial paper. Moody's affirmed its A3 rating with a stable outlook in 2022, after the IHS Markit merger. The balance sheet also carries $5.0 billion of redeemable noncontrolling interest for CME Group's 27% share of S&P Dow Jones Indices. CME can at any time make S&P Global buy part of that share at fair value. This is a possible cash call that does not show as debt. Management plans to buy back more than $7 billion of stock in 2026, about five times the $1.5 billion it bought in the first half. Reports of the Q2 earnings call said management expects to borrow about $2 billion more to pay for the buybacks. The same reports said management expects gross leverage of 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA at year end, above its 2.0 to 2.5 times target. Management then plans to bring leverage down in 2027.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: Ratings growth and AI debt issuance. Pending. Watch: Ratings revenue growth that stays strong with hyperscaler issuance near the $250 to $300 billion forecast pass; a sharp drop in issuance-driven revenue fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for Ratings growth above its historical pace and leverage on a path back to 2.0 to 2.5 times pass; guidance that assumes a fall in issuance fails.
Apr 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 earnings: private credit ratings and Indices flows. Pending. Watch: Growth in private credit ratings and in Indices fees from ETF assets pass; a fall in Ratings revenue as private lenders skip public ratings fails.