- Company name
- Charles Schwab
- Sector
- Brokerage & wealth management
- About
- Charles Schwab runs a large brokerage, banking, and wealth management business. Clients hold cash and investments at Schwab. Schwab earns net interest income on client cash, much of it held in bank deposit accounts. Schwab also earns asset-based fees on managed portfolios, mutual funds, and advisory accounts, plus trading and service fees.
- Thesis
- Schwab still trades as if client cash could sort back into money market funds and other higher-yielding places. That is the fear that hit the whole brokerage industry in 2023. That fear has kept fading. Net interest margin has expanded for several straight quarters, and net new assets keep growing faster than the year before. A new worry took its place in September 2026. Schwab stock fell about 6% on fear that AI assistants built into rival apps, such as Meta's new Muse, could weaken the loyalty that keeps clients on one brokerage's platform. For the first fear to keep fading, Schwab needs net interest margin and net new asset growth to keep showing up in its results. That includes the October 15, 2026 business update. For the AI-loyalty fear to fade, Schwab needs to show its own AI tools keep clients and advisors on its platform rather than losing them to outside assistants. These tools include a new partnership bringing Claude to thousands of independent advisor firms. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September 2026 rather than cutting them. This removes, for now, the near-term risk that falling deposit costs lag falling asset yields. If both trends keep confirming in the next two to three quarters of earnings, the market's caution looks overdone and the gap can close. If deposit competition or client movement to AI-native tools shows up instead, the discount could persist into 2027.
- Risks
- Schwab holds a large fixed-income investment portfolio, built up when deposits were high. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates faster than expected, yields on this portfolio reprice down before deposit costs fall as much, which can compress net interest margin. The Fed instead raised rates 0.25 points in September 2026, its first increase since 2023, so this risk did not play out this quarter, but the Fed has signaled it could still cut later if the rate cycle turns.
A large share of client cash sits in low-yielding bank sweep accounts. If money market fund yields pull further ahead of sweep rates, clients can move cash out of sweep and into higher-yielding funds. This lowers the low-cost deposit base Schwab lends against.
Schwab now competes directly with other platforms on commission-free trading, crypto trading, and cash yields. Its own crypto trading service only launched in 2026, so it is unproven against established crypto-focused competitors.
AI assistants built into other companies' apps, such as Meta's Muse, could reduce the friction that keeps clients using a single brokerage's app and tools. The market sold Schwab stock on this fear in September 2026, even with no confirmed change to Schwab's own client or asset numbers.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-22: Schwab stock fell about 6% in one day. The market reacted to Meta's new Muse AI assistant app, which reached the top of the US App Store within two weeks of launch, on fear that AI assistants could weaken the customer loyalty that brokerage and wealth firms depend on.
2026-09-22: Schwab Advisor Services is working with Anthropic to bring Claude for Financial Advisors to more than 16,000 independent registered investment advisor firms on Schwab's platform.
2026-09-16: The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate 0.25 percentage points, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since 2023, and pointed to at least one more increase this year.
2026-07-21: Schwab reported Q2 2026 results. Total net revenue was $7.07 billion, a record. Net interest margin was 3.00%, and net new assets reached $62.7 billion in June alone.
2026-05-13: Schwab began rolling out direct spot trading in bitcoin and ether to retail clients.