- Price
- $183.72
- Fair value
- $250.00
- Discount
- 26.5%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.33
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-02
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- SBA Communications
- Sector
- Cell tower REIT
- About
- SBA Communications owns and leases wireless towers and other sites, such as rooftops and small cells. At June 30, 2026, it owned or operated 46,390 sites: 17,362 in the United States and its territories and 29,028 in other countries, mostly in Latin America and Africa. Mobile network operators rent space on the towers for their antennas under long leases with yearly rent increases. More tenants on a tower add revenue at little extra cost, so site leasing gives about 98% of operating profit. SBA also builds towers and does site development work for carriers. It is a real estate investment trust, and it pays a quarterly dividend. For 2026, it expects site leasing revenue of $2,651 million to $2,676 million.
- Thesis
- The market prices SBA for slow US growth and high debt costs. US site leasing revenue fell 3.7% in Q2 2026 from a year earlier, because Sprint and EchoStar ended leases. SBA expects $132 million to $136 million of US churn in 2026. Net debt was 6.4 times annualized adjusted EBITDA at June 30, 2026, so higher interest rates raise its costs and lower the price investors pay for steady rent. Investors also ask if satellite phone service, such as SpaceX's Starlink Mobile, will reduce the need for towers. For the gap to close, three things must be true. US leasing revenue must grow again in 2027, after the Sprint and EchoStar churn ends, from new leases and amendments as carriers use new spectrum such as the spectrum of FCC Auction 115. AFFO per share must reach the 2026 guidance of $11.95 to $12.40 and then grow. SBA must refinance the debt due in 2026 and 2027 at rates near the 5.1% of its July 2026 bonds while it keeps its BBB rating. The SpaceX purchase of 800 MHz spectrum in October 2026, with a plan for a ground network, can also make SpaceX a new tenant. The first test is the Q3 2026 report on November 2, 2026, and the 2027 outlook comes with the Q4 report in about February 2027. The gap can close slowly, over 2027 and 2028, as churn ends and new carrier work starts.
- Risks
- US churn is high. Sprint and EchoStar leases end, and SBA expects $132 million to $136 million of US churn in 2026. US site leasing revenue fell 3.7% in Q2 2026. If carriers spend less on their networks, US growth stays weak after 2026.
Debt is high at 6.4 times annualized adjusted EBITDA. About $3.6 billion of debt was due within 12 months of June 30, 2026, before the July 2026 refinancing. Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt and lower the value of tower rent.
Satellite phone services, such as SpaceX's Starlink Mobile, can reduce the need for towers in rural areas. SpaceX can also become a tower tenant if it builds a ground network.
About a third of site leasing revenue comes from outside the US, mostly in Latin America and Africa. Weak currencies lower this revenue in dollars, and the wireline churn of Oi in Brazil adds to international churn.
A merger of wireless carriers, or the exit of a carrier, can end many leases at once, as the Sprint and EchoStar churn shows.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $327M
Debt: $12.8B
Net debt: $12.5B
EBITDA, last 12 months: $1.9B
Net debt / EBITDA: 6.4× (high)
Interest cover: 2.7×
Undrawn credit line: $2.5B, to July 2031
Debt due within 12 months: $3.6B
Ratings: S&P BBB
SBA funds itself mostly with secured tower securities of its subsidiaries and unsecured senior notes of the parent. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $12.8 billion, of which $9.8 billion was secured. Net debt was 6.4 times annualized Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA, in the middle of the target range of 6.0 to 7.0 times, and net secured debt was 4.9 times. EBITDA is Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA times four. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for H1 2026. Debt due within 12 months included the revolving credit borrowings, the term loan, the 2021-1C Tower Securities with an anticipated repayment date of November 9, 2026, and the $1.5 billion 2020 Senior Notes due February 15, 2027. On July 23, 2026, SBA issued $3.5 billion of unsecured notes at a blended 5.113% and repaid the $2.2 billion term loan and $1.0 billion of revolving credit borrowings. The new $2.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, due July 23, 2031, had nothing drawn on August 3, 2026. SBA set up a $2.5 billion commercial paper program on September 25, 2026. The rating is S&P's upgrade to BBB, reported on August 3, 2026.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 2, 2026: Q3 2026 results: US leasing and churn. Pending. Watch: US churn within the guided $132 million to $136 million and AFFO per share guidance kept or raised pass; more churn or a lower outlook fails.
Nov 9, 2026: Refinancing of the 2021-1C Tower Securities. Pending. Watch: Repayment or refinancing of the $1,165 million 2021-1C Tower Securities by the anticipated repayment date at a fixed rate near the 5.25% that SBA assumed passes; a much higher rate fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): FY 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with US site leasing revenue that grows again and higher AFFO per share passes; a further fall in US leasing revenue fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-09: Tower stocks rose after SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management's 800 MHz spectrum and said that it will pair Starlink Mobile with a ground network. SBA shares rose about 6% that morning.
2026-09-25: SBA set up a commercial paper program of up to $2.5 billion of short-term unsecured notes, backed by its unsecured revolving credit facility.
2026-08-03: SBA reported Q2 2026 results. Site leasing revenue rose 5.1% to $663.9 million, with international revenue up 30.5% and US revenue down 3.7% from Sprint, EchoStar and other lease non-renewals. AFFO per share fell 3.8% to $3.05. S&P raised SBA's rating to BBB. SBA declared a dividend of $1.25 per share.
2026-07-23: SBA closed its first investment-grade bond offering, $3.5 billion of unsecured notes due 2030, 2031 and 2033 at a blended rate of 5.113%. It repaid its $2.2 billion term loan and its $1.0 billion revolving credit borrowings, and it signed a new $2.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility due July 2031.
2026-04-29: SBA reported Q1 2026 results and its updated outlook for 2026.