- Price
- $73.24
- Fair value
- $94.00
- Discount
- 22.1%
- Uncertainty
- Medium
- LSEG rating
- 2.25
- Moat
- None
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-05
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Regency Centers
- Sector
- Shopping center REIT
- About
- Regency Centers is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, operates and develops shopping centers in suburban areas of the United States. Most of its centers have a grocery store as the anchor tenant, such as Whole Foods, King Soopers, Stop & Shop or Market Basket, which brings regular visits from nearby households. Its other tenants are restaurants, service businesses and other shops. It owns some centers directly and others through joint ventures with institutional partners. At June 30, 2026, its same property portfolio was 96.9% leased. Regency also builds new centers and redevelops old ones, with $680 million of projects in process at an expected yield of about 9%. It earns most of its income from rent under long leases with contractual increases. The company has its head office in Jacksonville, Florida.
- Thesis
- The market prices Regency like other REITs, whose values move with long-term interest rates, and it doubts that the current rent growth can last. Regency borrows to fund development and acquisitions, and higher rates raise the cost of new debt and lower the value of steady rental income. Its results are strong: in Q2 2026, same property NOI grew 3.8%, cash rent spreads on new and renewal leases were 10.4%, and the portfolio was 96.9% leased. The company raised its 2026 guidance for Core Operating Earnings to $4.62 to $4.66 per share, which is growth of more than 5%. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Same property NOI growth must stay near the 2026 guidance of 3.7% to 4.1%, with occupancy near record levels. The development program must keep delivering yields near 9% on the $680 million in process. Long-term interest rates must stay stable or fall, so that the cost of new debt stays near the current average of 4.2%. The Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026, gives the first test, and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 gives the next. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher long-term interest rates, which Regency cannot control.
- Risks
- Higher long-term interest rates raise the cost of new debt and lower the value that investors give to rental income. About $758 million of debt is due in 2027 and must be refinanced at current rates.
Tenant bankruptcies or store closures, mainly among shop tenants and non-grocery anchors, can lower occupancy and rent. Shop space was 94.4% leased at June 30, 2026, compared with 98.4% for anchor space.
Development projects take several years. Higher construction costs or slow leasing can lower the expected yield of about 9% on the $680 million of projects in process.
Grocery anchors are the main source of traffic. A shift of grocery sales to online delivery, or the loss of a large grocer, can lower visits to the centers.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $192M
Debt: $4.9B
Net debt: $4.7B
Net debt / EBITDA: 5.0× (high)
Interest cover: 5.2×
Undrawn credit line: $1.5B, to March 2028
Ratings: S&P A- (stable outlook), Moody's A3 (stable outlook)
Regency funds itself mostly with fixed-rate unsecured notes. At June 30, 2026, consolidated debt was $4.90 billion: $4.12 billion of unsecured public notes, $100 million of private placement notes, $654 million of mortgage loans and $30 million drawn on the $1.5 billion revolving credit line, which runs to March 2028 with two six-month extension options. Of the debt, 99.4% had a fixed rate, the average rate was 4.2% and the average time to maturity was 6.9 years. Cash, including restricted cash, was $192 million. Pro-rata net debt and preferred stock were 5.0 times trailing 12-month operating EBITDAre, as the company reports it, which includes its share of joint venture debt and $225 million of preferred stock. Interest coverage was 5.2 times. S&P rates Regency A- and Moody's rates it A3, both with a stable outlook.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: NOI growth and leasing. Pending. Watch: Same property NOI growth near 4%, occupancy near 97% and the 2026 guidance kept or raised pass; lower guidance or a fall in occupancy fails.
Feb 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for Core Operating Earnings growth of about 4% or more passes; guidance for slower growth because of tenant losses or higher interest costs fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-09-30: Regency said it will report Q3 2026 results after the market close on November 5, 2026, and hold its call on November 6, 2026.
2026-08-05: The board declared the quarterly dividend on the common stock and on the Series A and Series B preferred stock.
2026-07-29: Regency reported Q2 2026 results. Nareit FFO was $1.21 per diluted share and Core Operating Earnings was $1.16. Same property NOI grew 3.8% and the same property portfolio was 96.9% leased. It signed 2.1 million square feet of comparable leases at a cash rent spread of 10.4%. Regency raised its 2026 guidance to Nareit FFO of $4.84 to $4.88 per share and same property NOI growth of 3.7% to 4.1%.
2026-07-14: Regency bought Cornerstone at Westford in Massachusetts, a center anchored by Market Basket, through a joint venture for $74 million, or $15 million at its share. On July 8, 2026, it bought Franklin Crossing in New Jersey, anchored by Stop & Shop, for $27 million.
2026-02-04: The board authorized a program to buy back up to $500 million of common stock.