- Price
- $184.04 → $181.03(−1.6%)
- Discount
- -8.3% → -6.5%(+1.8 pts)
- Risks
- Apple is replacing Qualcomm's modems with its own in-house chips. Qualcomm expects Apple-related product revenue to fall about 50% from fiscal Q3 to Q4 2026, its iPhone share to be "materially lower" than a prior 20% estimate, and its Apple business to end entirely by 2027.
Much of the stock's premium over fair value depends on data-center AI chips (AI200/AI250) and deals like the Amazon and Humain partnerships turning into real revenue. None of this has generated revenue yet; Qualcomm expects it to start only in the December 2026 quarter, against established competitors like Nvidia and AMD.
China, mostly through phone makers like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo, made up about 46% of fiscal 2025 revenue. China's market regulator opened an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm in October 2025 over an undisclosed acquisition, adding regulatory risk in Qualcomm's largest market.
The core handset chip business is shrinking. QCT handset revenue fell 20% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026 on memory supply constraints, higher input costs, and softer demand from Chinese smartphone makers. Qualcomm said it would raise chip prices from September 1, 2026 to offset costs, which could pressure demand further.
The stock still trades about 8% above the analysts' fair value estimate, and the analysts rate the estimate's uncertainty "High." This leaves little cushion if the AI data-center or automotive growth stories disappoint.
Arm Holdings continues to contest its licensing dispute with Qualcomm despite losing in court in 2024 and again in September 2025. A separate Qualcomm lawsuit against Arm is set forwent to a jury trial startingin Delaware on October 5, 2026. Continued litigation could raise costs or create uncertainty around Qualcomm's Oryon CPU cores.
Qualcomm's new data-center push depends heavily on a small number of large customers, such as Amazon and Humain, echoing the customer-concentration risk it already has in smartphones.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-05: A jury trial began in a federal court in Delaware on Qualcomm's lawsuit against Arm. Qualcomm claims that Arm broke their contract, for example by holding back chip testing tools. It asks the court to stop its royalty payments to Arm for up to five years. Arm denies the claims.
2026-10-05: Qualcomm and Huawei announced a multi-year patent license agreement. Each company licenses its 5G, compute, AI and networking patents to the other. Qualcomm also buys some Huawei US patents, after regulatory approvals. The companies did not disclose financial terms. On October 6, Qualcomm said that reports that it is a net payer under the agreement are incorrect.
2026-09-24: Qualcomm and Apple announced they renewed Qualcomm's global patent license agreement. The new deal starts April 1, 2027. It covers Qualcomm's wireless patents, separate from Qualcomm's chip supply deal with Apple, which is still shrinking.
2026-09-22: At its Snapdragon Summit, Qualcomm unveiled the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and Snapdragon 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6 chips for premium Android phones, with new on-device AI features.
2026-09-08: Qualcomm and Amazon announced a partnership to build custom AI inference chips and optical networking for AWS data centers. Amazon's maximum contracted purchase is $60 billion over 10 years, and Qualcomm gave Amazon a warrant to buy about 25 million Qualcomm shares (roughly $4 billion) at $161.26 each. Qualcomm expects revenue from the deal to begin in the December 2026 quarter.
2026-07-29: Qualcomm reported fiscal Q3 2026 results: revenue of $9.9 billion, QCT revenue of $8.5 billion (handsets $5.1 billion, down 20% year-over-year; automotive $1.6 billion, up 61%; IoT $1.8 billion, up 9%), and QTL revenue of $1.3 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.21; GAAP net income was $2.0 billion, down 25% year-over-year.
2026-07-29: Management guided fiscal Q4 2026 revenue to $9.7-$10.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $2.05-$2.25. It said Apple-related product revenue would fall about 50% from Q3 to Q4 as Apple's in-house modem ramps, with Qualcomm's iPhone share "materially lower" than a prior 20% estimate, and said China revenue likely bottomed in the June quarter.
2026-03-17: The board raised the quarterly dividend from $0.89 to $0.92 per share and approved a new $20 billion stock repurchase authorization, with no expiration date.
2026-01-20: Qualcomm unveiled the AI200 and AI250, its first purpose-built data-center AI inference chips, based on its Hexagon NPU. The AI200 is expected to be commercially available in 2026 and the AI250 in 2027.
2025-12-18: Qualcomm completed its $2.4 billion acquisition of Alphawave Semi, a UK chip-connectivity company, a quarter ahead of schedule. Alphawave's CEO, Tony Pialis, now leads Qualcomm's data-center business.
2025-10-27: Qualcomm and Saudi-backed Humain announced a deal for Humain to deploy 200 megawatts of Qualcomm AI200/AI250 rack-scale AI inference infrastructure, starting in 2026.
2025-10-10: China's market regulator (SAMR) opened an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, saying the company failed to properly disclose its 2025 acquisition of Israeli chipmaker Autotalks as required under China's anti-monopoly law.