- Price
- $201.97 → $184.04(−8.9%)
- Discount
- -18.8% → -8.3%(+10.5 pts)
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Risks
- Apple is replacing Qualcomm's modems with its own in-house chips. Qualcomm expects Apple-related product revenue to fall about 50% from fiscal Q3 to Q4 2026, its iPhone share to be "materially lower" than a prior 20% estimate, and its Apple business to end entirely by 2027.
Much of the stock's premium over fair value depends on data-center AI chips (AI200/AI250) and deals like the Amazon and Humain partnerships turning into real revenue. None of this has generated revenue yet; Qualcomm expects it to start only in the December 2026 quarter, against established competitors like Nvidia and AMD.
China, mostly through phone makers like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo, made up about 46% of fiscal 2025 revenue. China's market regulator opened an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm in October 2025 over an undisclosed acquisition, adding regulatory risk in Qualcomm's largest market.
The core handset chip business is shrinking. QCT handset revenue fell 20% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026 on memory supply constraints, higher input costs, and softer demand from Chinese smartphone makers. Qualcomm said it would raise chip prices from September 1, 2026 to offset costs, which could pressure demand further.
The stock alreadystill trades about 168% above the analysts' fair value estimate, and the analysts rate the estimate's uncertainty "High." This leaves little cushion if the AI data-center or automotive growth stories disappoint.
Arm Holdings continues to contest its licensing dispute with Qualcomm despite losing in court in 2024 and again in September 2025. A separate Qualcomm lawsuit against Arm wasis set for trial in Marchstarting October 5, 2026. Continued litigation could raise costs or create uncertainty around Qualcomm's Oryon CPU cores.
Qualcomm's new data-center push depends heavily on a small number of large customers, such as Amazon and Humain, echoing the customer-concentration risk it already has in smartphones.