- Price
- $44.15
- Fair value
- $56.00
- Discount
- 21.2%
- Uncertainty
- Low
- LSEG rating
- 2.67
- Moat
- Narrow
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Portland General Electric
- Sector
- Electric utility
- About
- Portland General Electric (PGE) is a regulated electric utility based in Portland, Oregon. It generates, transmits and distributes electricity to 962,000 retail customers in northwest Oregon, in an area with about 2 million residents. Its power comes from its own hydro, natural gas and wind plants and from power that it buys. The Public Utility Commission of Oregon (OPUC) sets its rates. Demand from high-tech companies and data centers grows fast: industrial deliveries grew 11% in Q2 2026. Oregon law (HB 2021) requires PGE to cut the emissions of the power that it sells by 80% by 2030, with further targets for 2035 and 2040.
- Thesis
- The market prices PGE for regulatory risk in Oregon and for a very large need for new investment. On September 25, 2026, the OPUC approved the PGE plan for a holding company only with conditions that limit dividends based on retained earnings and credit ratings. PGE says that these conditions could limit its ability to fund its investments, and it does not plan to form the holding company unless the OPUC changes them. At the same time, PGE plans to buy the Washington utility business of PacifiCorp, with about 140,000 customers, for $1.9 billion. Its October 2026 resource plan also identifies 3,377 to 6,747 megawatts of new resources needed by 2030. These plans need much new debt and new shares. For the gap to close, PGE must earn 2026 adjusted EPS within its $3.33 to $3.53 guidance. The OPUC must change or clarify the holding company conditions, or PGE must find another way to fund its plan at a fair cost. The Washington purchase must receive its approvals, and the 2027 rate case must end with a fair return. PGE reports Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026, which is the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is an Oregon regulator that keeps strict limits while PGE must invest heavily.
- Risks
- The OPUC holding company order limits dividends tied to retained earnings and credit ratings. PGE says that such conditions could limit its ability to fund needed investment, and a long dispute delays its financing plans.
The Washington purchase needs $1.9 billion of financing, and the resource plan needs thousands of megawatts of new resources. More debt and new shares can lower the growth in EPS.
Wildfires in Oregon can cause large damage and lawsuits, and PGE spends more each year on wildfire mitigation.
Earnings depend on hydro conditions, power prices and weather. A dry year or high market prices can raise power costs above what customer prices recover.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $35M
Debt: $4.9B
Net debt: $4.9B
Interest cover: 1.9×
Undrawn credit line: $750M, to September 2030
Debt due within 12 months: $0.0M
PGE funds itself with first mortgage bonds, bank term loans, commercial paper and new shares. At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $4.93 billion with no current maturities, and PGE had no commercial paper outstanding. Cash was $35 million. The $750 million revolving credit facility, which can grow to $850 million, was undrawn and runs to September 2030. In March 2026, PGE signed a $350 million term loan due in March 2028 and a $681 million delayed draw term loan for the Washington purchase, which needs $1.9 billion of financing in total. In February 2026, it signed an equity forward sale agreement for 9,467,455 shares, which it can settle until February 22, 2028. Interest cover is income from operations divided by net interest expense for the first half of 2026. The quarterly dividend is 55.125 cents per share.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and holding company plan. Pending. Watch: Adjusted EPS on track for the $3.33 to $3.53 guidance and a clear path on the holding company conditions pass; a guidance cut fails.
Q4 2026 (estimate): OPUC response on the holding company conditions. Pending. Watch: A change or clarification of the dividend conditions that lets PGE form the holding company passes; an unchanged order fails.
2027 (estimate): Approvals for the Washington purchase. Pending. Watch: Approval by the Washington commission and the other regulators on acceptable terms passes; a rejection or costly conditions fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-15: PGE filed its 2026 Clean Energy Plan and Integrated Resource Plan with the OPUC. One portfolio needs 3,377 megawatts of new resources by 2030 and more than 5,000 megawatts by 2032. A portfolio that meets the current HB 2021 emission targets needs 6,747 megawatts by 2030 and more than 9,000 megawatts by 2032. The plan also calls for more transmission.
2026-09-25: The OPUC issued its final order on the PGE holding company application. The order includes customer benefits of about $83 million, but it adds conditions beyond the stipulation with OPUC staff, including limits on dividends tied to retained earnings and credit ratings. PGE is evaluating reconsideration, clarification or judicial review, and it does not expect to proceed unless the conditions change.
2026-08-12: PGE and OPUC staff signed a stipulation that recommended approval of the holding company. It included $45 million of commitments and an agreement to keep the common equity of PGE at 45% or higher.
2026-07-31: PGE reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $68 million, or $0.59 per share, and non-GAAP EPS was $0.64. PGE kept its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.33 to $3.53. A new large load tariff raised prices for data centers and other new large customers by about 30% from July 8, 2026, and lowered prices for all other customers. PGE said that it would file a 2027 rate case for an increase of about 4.8%, with new rates from July 1, 2027.
2026-02-15: PGE agreed to buy parts of the Washington utility business of PacifiCorp, which serves about 140,000 customers, for $1.9 billion. The purchase needs approvals from FERC and from regulators in several states, and PGE expects it to close about 12 months after the regulatory filings.